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The first Splinter Cell, and Pandora Tomorrow are never really mentioned again in the series, outside of a few throwaway lines that aren't integral to the plot in later games.
Chaos Theory relates a bit to Conviction, in a very small way, but is otherwise not mentioned, in the same way as the original and PT.
Double Agent is VERY important to the plot of Conviction, so if you want to play Conviction, you're going to need to play Double Agent, to really get into the story.
Conviction is related to Double Agent, so if you've played Double Agent, play Conviction. Otherwise, it's really not too important.
Blacklist pretty much stands on its own. It doesn't rely on any of the other games for plot points, and considering that Sam's voice actor has changed, and that his appearance has been overhauled, it's as good a starting point for people new to the series as any. It's a bit harder on series veterans, because most of us are used to Sam's older, more harsh voice, and his steadily-aging appearance throughout all of the previous games. Blacklist makes it seem like they pulled a James Bond, or a Snake, and replaced Sam Fisher with a completely unrelated guy with the same name. Except for the whole having a daughter who is probably older than he is named Sarah thing, but eh, that's Ubisoft for you.
The older games may throw you off, a lot, if you go back to them. The control scheme is completely different for Splinter Cell, Pandora Tomorrow, Chaos Theory, and Double Agent than it is in Conviction, and Blacklist tweaks how Conviction controlled in ways that make it much more bearable. As it is, I can only stand the older games out of nostalgia. I mean, at least on PC, you control the pace at which you run/walk with the mouse wheel, unless you use a gamepad. Opening doors, grabbing and picking up enemies and their weapons, and even climbing onto stuff requires using a context-sensitive menu that pops up in the corner of the screen, displaying available actions.
Thanks for the quick replies.
Yeah, if you can handle the sudden change in Fisher's voice and appearance, you may as well at least give the games a try, if you have them. I wouldn't suggest going out of your way to buy SC1 and Pandora Tomorrow, though, if you don't already have them. They haven't aged well, at all. Chaos Theory is worth a look, if you can handle the controls being a bit hard to use at times, and Double Agent has some neat stuff in it, plotwise. Conviction is...eh. It's alright if you're okay with the game's tone shifting dramatically, compared to every previous game. Conviction was Ubisoft's attempt to revitalize the series, and while it did bring in enough money to make them create Blacklist, it also upset long-time fans of the series enough that they went back to what worked for them before when they made Blacklist. Conviction doesn't have too many penalties for raising alarms, and in fact it can be easier to just play it Bourne-style, where you move quickly from cover to cover, disabling enemies with hand-to-hand takedowns and "Mark and Execute" chains. Main reason it upset a lot of fans is because of how they downplayed relying on stealth to survive. Conviction lets you get away with /way/ too much sometimes, and encourages a style of play that's going to get you wrecked in Blacklist.