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The pattern above work for AIs with an argument level of 7. I haven't found any other AI with high enough argument level beside Cecilia though.
In my game, I only have to lose twice to lose the whole game, while I have to win 5 times to win.
If I start with Scissors, she often picks Rock (her wins = 1)
If I follow your 2b and pick Scissors, she picks Rock again (her wins = 2, game over).
If I start with rock, she often picks Paper ( her wins = 1)
If I then follow your 2a and pick Rock, she picks Paper again (her wins = 2, game over).
Your strategy sort of works, only if you start with Scissors, and she picks paper (your wins = 1), then you follow 2a and sometimes she picks Scissors (your wins = 2), but often she picks Paper and then it's basically game over (because your suggested picks lose the next round etc).
It'd be nice if it was this easy, but it's not.
There could be a pattern to how she chooses, but I don't think this is it.
(It's also really annoying that no matter how I arrange my party (order or formation) she chooses my low charisma character so I get no bonuses on my wins).
If you really want to win, 8 charisma helps a bit.
One of her patterns is this:
Scissors - Scissors - Rock - Rock - Rock
What i did was save the game before starting and always play against that pattern with:
Rock - Rock - Paper - Paper - Paper
If something changed i would load the game and start all over until the pattern was the one i wanted.
Took me 3 tries.