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A great smith can reduce the armor penalties and increase the AP cap of any said armor this should be kept in mind for such a character
For Crit characters without dodge or block the armor penalties won't do you much harm apart from the thc one on the helmet so a light helmet and heavy armor for an axe beserker could work quite well and focus on alchemy+axe+crit for a potentially very nice combo (prioritise archers with such a build though)
For Dodge characters without smithing Light metal or for a stealth character Strong leather can fit the role nicely
For Block characters without smithing i would suggest something rather light like the arm guard cannot remember its name i think it began with an M, alternatively pay 100-150 or talk the guards (praetor only i think) into letting the refuges in at the gate you will recieve some nice light armor
From enemies killed or aquired for expensive prices from merchants you can get smithing enchanced gear
I feel, with my limited experience in this game, if you can get 1 DR per 3 AP that is pretty decent and may be worth it.
I may work up a simple excel sheet to work out some numbers such as average damage taken increase or decrease dependent on incoming damage.
and try not to go over 6 thc penalty
First let me lay out some independent variables,
Damage Input (Dmg)
Damage Reduction (DR)
Dodge/Block Chance (C) (Decimal Value, greater than or equal to zero, less than or equal to one) Note: This is the chance the enemy has to hit you before taking into account the AP. This is NOT your defense rating!
Armor Penalty (AP) (Decimal Value, less than or equal to Dodge/Block Chance)
and a couple dependent variables,
Effective Damage (ED) = Dmg - DR
Defense (Def) = C - AP (Decimal Value, greater than or equal to zero, less than or equal to one) Note: Again, not your defense rating, just the aggregate chance the opponent has to hit you.
First, the average damage per hit a character will receive can be calculated as,
(1-Def)*ED = AvgDmg
This is a bit simplified because we are assuming criticals are part of the input damage, which is the average damage your opponent is rolling.
This is nice for checking how much damage you should expect every time your opponent attacks you. This is the damage you would receive on average per attack if your opponent attacked you many many times, averaging in the misses.
Now, let's take a look at how much that armor is actually helping you. Relative to if you were naked, the aggregate effective damage reduction (AEDR),
DR*(1-Def) - Dmg*AP = AEDR
Notice a couple things. The first part of the equation is the effective damage reduction (EDR). The higher your dodge or block is the lower the "value" your DR has. Basically, if someone can't hit you, your DR has no value. The second part of the equation is the penalty you receive for wearing the armor. It basically subtracts the average extra damage you will be taking from a reduced dodge/block. Notice that very high damage input values will bring the AEDR into the negative. That is the point we are looking for.
Back to the primary question. For a given dodge/block and given damage input, what is the point at which the DR per AP no longer becomes beneficial. Holding Def and Dmg constant, and setting AEDR to zero we have the following,
DR/AP = Dmg/(1-Def)
With this equation you can determine the minimum ratio of DR/AP for a given damage input and defense chance.
e.g. I am being hit, on average, 10 damage BEFORE damage reductions, and my opponent has a 50% chance of hitting me. So the armor I want to use needs to have a DR/AP ratio of at least 10/(1-0.5) = 20. Anything less means that I am actually gimping my build. Notice how as your Def goes to 1.0 that your ratio becomes infinite. Basically, this means you can just run around naked as that oppenent can't hit you. An example of some acceptable armor would be something with a DR of 6, and an AP of 16. That is a ratio of 37.5. However, if that damage amount was 20 instead of 10, then that armor would actually hurt you as it would be under the ratio of 40.
Questions?
I understand how that may cause some confusion, but the discussion isn't about AP. I also defined my variables. So as long as the reader reads that part there should be no confusion.
This discussion isn't about your max AP, or whether or not your armor will be damaged. Criticals and side effects are also not up for discussion. This is simply about how to best mitigate any incoming damage. Given a set of options for armor, disregarding all ability point and other limitations, focusing only on the DR and armor penalty, the constructed formulations I gave will tell you which armor will be best for damage mitigation.
The damage input already takes into account any damage from criticals. It is simply the damage you expect an enemy to do on average. Now, if you really want to get into the specifics of that number you would need to know the strength of the enemy, weapon statistics, attack type, and the critical chance for that specific attack type. With those variable defined you could then calculate the average damage an opponent will do when attacking with that specified attack.
As you can see, that is quite a few additional variable to take into account. Given the slew of weapons and attack types I just didn't find it worth while to work out another equation for that. Instead, I think just using a standard 5, 10, 15, and 20 damage amount, and chance to hit to test armor setups is a better way to go. This way, you know what enemies are the biggest threat to your character setup. Those are the enemies to take out first.
Enemies will usually be forced to use power attacks if you're in reasonably heavy armor, and their THC penalty roughtly balances out with your defense penalty as well as their damage vs. your DR, but the upshot is you take less total hits since they're also slower. All a dodger in leather needs is a couple of aimed leg shots and then a bunch of fast attacks to ruin his day, and, yeah, the AI knows to do that.
I will agree with you on the point though that if an opponent has to use strong attacks to break your DR then they will get fewer attacks per round, and at a lower chance to hit. It is hard to say at what point an opponent will switch to such an attack. I don't know how the AI code is set up. It could have a 1 damage or greater threshold, or it could be a 3 damage or greater. That is something that would make for a far more complicated but complete equation if I did know that answer. It is a very interesting thing to think about.
Edit: Another thing that comes to mind is piercing damage, such as that from bows and crossbows or other projectiles. The 60% reduction in DR is huge, and painful. I know I use a crossbow instead of daggers from time to time to soften up those heavy armored opponents.
If you can craft, you can get all the steel you need pretty early in Maadoran, all the bluesteel you need once you can conquer the Arena, and have to wait a long time and play your cards right to have skymetal armor. Past that, you really do typically do best crafting the heaviest armor you can without taking an action point penalty, putting priority on masterwork and lightening to get the heaviest armor possible. Just try it and see.