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Which OS are you using?
Have you installed any mods, if so, which ones?
Have you ever had this game working, even many years ago? (In other words, is it possible that there is some leftover data from an earlier installation?)
Have you tried verifying your game files?
Have you tried the basic standby for start-up crashes? Turn off the cloud and disable any mods, then, delete the three data files and the "saves" folder in the Oblivion Data folder. (blendsettings, Oblivion, Renderinfo). Launch the game and save then exit and turn the cloud back on. (This will give you a completely fresh start with newly created data files and an empty "saves" folder. You will need to adjust your graphics settings after as the game will revert to the default, minimum, settings for the original game on release.)
I've verified the files, and this is my first time starting the game.
Have you tried the suggestion, above, to delete the files which are created the first time you launch the game? Then try again to launch it with cloud saves disabled.
I believe that One Drive, if you have it can also cause problems. This offers a possible solution:
https://steamcommunity.com/app/22330/discussions/0/2521353993644458483/
game launcher needs to create folder
Documents\My Games\Oblivion
folder should contain files BlendSettings.ini Oblivion.ini RendererInfo.ini
after game launcher runs and you set your graphics settings
and after game starts your saves folder.
if these files are missing also besides no saves:
check antivirus log? might be blocking game/game launcher.
check windows security/controlled folder access.
if on add exceptions for game launcher/game.
run game from game folder .exe and NOT from steam library or an icon.
sometimes an error msg (missing library) appears not hidden by steam
check windows event viewer and also windows reliability history.
might be a game crash event or system related problems.
running Windows One Drive? One Drive moves the ini/preference files to the one drive.
as suggested above, modify one drive to exclude the game folder or turn it off if you do not use it.
that right there is your problem - i'm not trolling, it literally is the culprit