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I believe it’s definitely player skill. I find listening to the tumblers reveals the pattern in which to know when to lock in.
That's how it works in good old Morrowind.
But yeah if that's how it worked in Morrowind, I think i'd prefer that.
Well enjoy it because it's a beautiful game and there's so many things that they did better here then they did in Skyrim *cough* dark brotherhood, theives guild, DLC *cough*
You need to pay attention to the sound when you touch the pick. If you hear unusual double-clicking sound, that's the right moment where you have to lock the pick(=pressing left mouse). You can also see the pick goes up more smoothly and slowly when it is the right moment to lock it.
Odds of 'the right moment to lock the pick' are depend on both your Security skill and the difficulty of the lock. That right. Your skill does matter in terms of lockpicking. If you reach 100 Security skill, all picks always go up at the right moment.
For this reason, you can try making a spell that has 'Fortify Security 100 pts in 3 seconds on Self' effect, cast it each time before you try pick a lock. But then again, if you're gonna use spell to pick a lock anyway, why not just cast Open spell instead? However, seeing how you ranting about minigames in Oblivion, I doubt you'd have any knowledge about how powerful the magic could be in this game.
You can try spam auto attempt with lots of lockpicks, or Skeleton Key like how the most people do. Visit Nocturnal's Shrine and start her quest to gain Skeleton Key. You need to be at level 10, by the way.
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Now, on to the part about whether if this feature is awful or not; It's not. You're wrong.
You, including many people think this is a terrible feature, simply because you're suck at it. Let's face it. You think it's bad, because you're bad at it, and you're not even bothering to learn it. Nothing more, nothing less.
To be fair on this part; The game doesn't tell you how to play lockpick minigame properly, so it is understandable that many people, including you, had trouble comprehending this feature, gave up on it, calling it stupid and terrible. But other than that, this lockpick minigame is the prime example how the video game should handle its certain mechanic.
It requires both players' skill AND the character's skill in order to be good at it. Not many game, especially RPGs, have implemented such feature.
There are other things that determine the success rate for picking the lock, but ultimately, it is you who pick the lock. You have to be good at it, not your character, or your odds. That's the part I admire the most about this feature. Because it's always you to be blamed, not another RNG that has manipulated the mankind since the day of playing games with dices.
You don't want to be bothered with this? Don't worry! The game offers other methods to pick a lock. Like auto attempt, which is literally exact same feature straight from Morrowind, or you can try cast spell on it to open. Does people's beloved Skyrim had feature any of these? I don't think so, my friend.
I really liked about how the player himself should be good at this, not entirely related to odds with RNG; which I hate the most. I mean, you can pick a insanely hard lock just with 1 lockpick and 5 Security skill, as long as you, the player is good at this minigame. This is what makes a good role playing experience in my opinion. You, the player is literally the character himself and doing the things that you're actually good at it.
I'm so disappointed that this feature was removed and couldn't be seen again after Oblivion.
Why should what my character can do be limited to what *I* can do?
You've landed a hit on bandit from a far with your bow and arrow, because you're good at firing arrows in this game, not because your character has a high skill of Marksman.
You can boost up local guard's disposition towards you in no time, because you know how to persuade people in this game, not because your character has a high skill of Speechcraft.
You can pick a very strong lock only with one lockpick and without breaking it, because you know about lockpicking in this game, not because your character has a high skill of Security.
It's always "you" doing something, not the game does that for you. That's the value that this feature you hate the most possesses which cannot be seen in often in other video games, especially RPGs. You screwed something's up because you've done something wrong, not because you were unlucky, or some other RNG crap like that which most other RPGs liked to feature.
On top of that, as I mentioned earlier, you character's skill does matter in terms of lockpicking or pretty much any other skill related features in Oblivion. It's a combined mix with both your actual ability to pick a lock, and your character's skill.
The only problem you're having is that you don't know how to pick a lock, nor you're actually trying to learn it, or you're trying another possible methods in the game. Ranting about a feature without even an attempt to comprehend it is one of the most pathetic things you could do in the game forum.