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Or you started a fight with a faction within the city and he got killed defending you or something.
I've seen this happen a bunch of times in these games.
If you haven't spoken to him, it's possible that he may have stolen food and been killed by the guards, as he has a very low responsibility.
The wiki notes: "This quest may conflict with Lost Histories due to the scripted appearance of guards." I have no idea what that means, but perhaps that has something to do with it.
Also the rampage. Though I assume you should know this if you've done it so mnay times.
He gets in your face the first time you enter the city, and asks you to meet him at midnight.
I showed up to do the Mage's guild recommendation quest and hadn't done any other quests there. Haven't gotten 'Lost Histories' quest.
The NPCs, when telling me he's dead, add something like 'someone must have gotten tired of him' .
It's probably a glitch, but sounds like the beginning of a quest similar to the serial killer investigation in Skyrim.
Still, it raises a lot of questions, not just about the nature of Glorthir's quest. Who killed Glarthir?
By the way, I on a vanilla version of Oblivion with no mods, but all of the DLC loaded.
I just moved on, once I found his body. I lost some quest bucks but still got his house key.
I believe this happens if he's killed at any stage of the quest, by anyone. Even the guard who kills him will say that right after, if you turn him in.
He's obviously mentally ill, paranoid, perhaps some kind of schizophrenia (I have a family member with this so I know the signs).
However, when I did his quest to follow people, strange things happened. Firstly, after meeting him for the first time, I went to sleep at the inn. A guard came into my room at night and told me to stay away from Glarthir in a threatening manner.
Later, when following one of Glarthir's targets, a guard arrested me and put me in jail for being a thief. I hadn't stolen anything, ever. I'm a good guy knight, not a thief. I don't even trespass unless a quest demands it. Seems to me like they were obstructing me from following the guy!
Later, when spying on another guy for Glarthir, I observed this person leave the vineyard where they were working, walk out to a spot just beyond the vineyard, bend down to pick something up (or maybe put something down) and then immediately leave this spot and go home. I was roleplaying (as always) so I was very far away when observing my target so they wouldn't see me. I later went back to the spot where they bent down to pick something up, and I found holes in the grass where someone had been digging.
So Glarthir is obviously a paranoid maniac with mental illness, but the people in Skingrad are also suspicious.
From the Oblivion Game Guide:
"One of the documents that will always appear is an account of Glarthir's own surveillance on Surilie at his vineyard west of the city. It refers to the winemaker going off by himself - possibly to bury secret evidence - and to a later finding that ground had been disturbed. [...]
North of the vineyard are two ponds. Sunk beside the central rock of the eastern one is a chest containing a bit of gold, probably some clutter, and a small chance of a lockpick."
Surilie is hiding his treasure, not espionage-related correspondence or dead bodies. :P
Surprisingly, this information is not on UESP. Lucky this passage is available to read on Google Books. I remembered reading something like this happening in the guide when I was a kid.
But that goes against the storyline. Everyone says they tolerate him The guards say they can't do anything unless he breaks the law.
Getting into spolier territory here, but he's left alone unless he snaps. The title of the quest says it all.
And it's your character's interaction that can lead him to snap.
The location of one of those ponds is given to you by Sinderion, I belieive. You also find notes about some off-the-wall cabal out to get him for "what he knows".
Even the guards tell you to leave him alone, but report any strange behavior. When you do, you're told nothing can be done unless he breaks the law.
And since it's your character's information that can make him snap, this really doesn't make sense.
I went back to take a closer look. There is a walkway near that gate, the gate leading to the castle. I know it wasn't the Count because other than for one quest, he normally doesn't leave the castle. (I entered his quarters after that quest rather than visiting during normal hours and he attacked me. I wonder if I can get him to attack, then chase me into the city...)
I also began to wonder if maybe a spider daedra or something poisoned him and he died inside the gate. But that area is walled in.
His body is on the side of the bridge opposite the gate and his head is pointing away from the gate.
I have seen NPCs doing tne Three Stooges thing in doorways and stairwells, so your theory that he fell off the bridge is plausible.
The other NPCs' comments that someone must have gotten tired of him sounds like what they say when you complete the quest and a guard doesn't intervene. That leaves your character as the only witness.
The other ending, when you encourage him, has the NPCs saying something completely different, somthing to the effect that he 'finally snapped'.
Whether this is how he got killed or not, I'm accepting that as the explanation so I can move on.