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The formula mentioned here for lockpicking is:
((Security + (Agility/5) + (Luck/10)) * Lockpick multiplier * (0.75 + 0.5 * Current Fatigue/Maximum Fatigue) - Lock Level)%
Plugging in the numbers mentioned above, at full fatigue, that comes to:
((27 + (12) + (4.3)) = 43.3 * 1.3 * (1.25) = 70.36%, minus lock level. And you say that you experimented with the console and needed 34 security to be able to unlock a level 50 lock. Interesting.
Unless there's something else unintentionally happening [trying it at not full fatigue, not using a master lockpick, have a damaged attribute, etc], then I'm guessing that the Fatigue Multiplier and/or Lockpick multipler is not being counted or are lower for some reason. The formula seems to be out by about that factor [43.3% prior to adding in the multipliers, which wouldn't be enough for a level 45 lock].
Either that, or the Agility and/or luck modifiers are significantly lower. I'm guessing the Security skill component is pretty well fixed, given that it still correlates with lockpicking success.
But I unfortunately have no idea why. I can't find any mention of it in the Code Patch notes, and I don't know much about modding.
Anyway: If you'd like to get your Security skill up, there's quite a few trainers around the place. There's a Khajiit downstairs in the Balmora thieves guild who sells lockpicks and trains Security up to the mid 40's for starters.
From my vague memory of past playthroughs, I needed a security skill of 60 or so before I was comfortable opening level 100 locks with decent lockpicks. And that would've probably been on max'd stat characters.
Edit:
http://en.uesp.net/wiki/Morrowind:Thieves_Tools
Interestingly, if you go to the Thieves Tools page on UESP, there is NO MENTION of a fatigue multipler for lockpicking.
Perhaps this is the problem? Maybe you could try experimenting lockpicking tired vs not tired and see if it makes a difference. You'd think that some locks would be 'too complex' if attempted whilst tired vs not tired...
Another edit: They just add 1.25 to the front, which I guess assumes that lockpicking is being attempted at full fatigue. Still, might be worth experimenting with it, could still be wrong...