Chances to hit is not at all accurate

[UnknownAl]

the displayed chance to hit is not at all accurate...
often get moments where it says that is 6% chance to hit, but still hits 5 out of 8 bullets, the enemy is the same when i look in the combat log

[Garatgh Deloi]

That is not how chance works. Even if a coin flip is 50/50 you can still get heads 10 times in a row.

If you want to check if the % is accurate with any sort of reliability you would need a sample size of a thousand at the very least (And even that is still considered a small, and inaccurate, sample size for stuff like this).

Also, depending on how the RNG is generated in the game, reloading a save over and over might not work (For example, the RNG can be generated using a seed, the same roll would then result in the same result over and over no matter how much you reload the save).

[SirRice]

For me the damage prediction is off. It does seem to be telling me the damage i can do with all my stacked buffs, but it's not telling me the damage i will actually do should i hit the enemy as it doesn't seem to be accounting for their perks or armor or caps on how high the buffs can actually increase my damage. Though i'm pretty sure this didn't happen until chapter 4 so maybe i just ran into a bug.

[AshlynOne]

Originally posted by Garatgh Deloi:

That is not how chance works. Even if a coin flip is 50/50 you can still get heads 10 times in a row.

If you want to check if the % is accurate with any sort of reliability you would need a sample size of a thousand at the very least (And even that is still considered a small, and inaccurate, sample size for stuff like this).

Also, depending on how the RNG is generated in the game, reloading a save over and over might not work (For example, the RNG can be generated using a seed, the same roll would then result in the same result over and over no matter how much you reload the save).

Chance to hit is still not accurate. I've hit allies with 0%, unless you know of a way to explain that.

[Enola Gay]

It never is in any game. There is also the perception of it being wrong since most games don't show they calculate things.

I am fairly certain it was broken with burst fire prior to the last big patch. Where the lower hit numbers had a much higher rate than it was showing.

[stax]

Originally posted by UnknownAl:

the displayed chance to hit is not at all accurate...
often get moments where it says that is 6% chance to hit, but still hits 5 out of 8 bullets, the enemy is the same when i look in the combat log

You say 5 out of 8 bullets. Are you by chance using burst attack?

Because for burst attacks, accuracy does not determine chance to hit target. Instead, it governs how many bullets travel along the central trajectory (as opposed to deviating left or right of it).

[FAButzke]

Originally posted by Ashen One:

Chance to hit is still not accurate. I've hit allies with 0%, unless you know of a way to explain that.

Yep. Can confirm. I stopped looking at chances and damage calculations altogether. I even dont bother to look at the log anymore since its unreliable. I've missed all 8 shots on a 95% hit chance burst fire and hit a 0% hit chance on my allies one to many times. Now I just use 'negate ally damage' talents (like controled fire) and I dont care about any modifiers at all.

[FAButzke]

Originally posted by stax:

You say 5 out of 8 bullets. Are you by chance using burst attack?

Because for burst attacks, accuracy does not determine chance to hit target. Instead, it governs how many bullets travel along the central trajectory (as opposed to deviating left or right of it).

It should be like that, but it aint. Unless 'the deviation' is 100% chance to hit my ally on the head. Or it's reversed: 0% means 100% and 95% means 0%.