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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IRjwbrP9wKw
It should be canon.
I think GW's policy with books/lore is to try to avoid objective truths. Stories and lore are usually told through a biased perspective.
If a novel was to ever reveal the truth of the machine spirit being fake it would pretty much crush the Mechanicus faction.
Plus its kind of fun to entertain the idea of a machine spirit. Could be basic luck and janky code. Could be advance AI that reached the level of godhood. Could be the Warp interacting with the material world. All are equally possible.
Think of it like medical knowledge prior to the advent of germ theory: They knew that eating shellfish or uncooked pork makes you sick and die, and they knew that if they did this thing in this way they could increase a sick person's odds of success, but they didn't really get the science behind it. Far as they could tell, it was just God getting mad at the person for eating unapproved foods, or those herbs and oils they anointed the person with must have special effects when you prayed over them.
They couldn't have known the prayers and sigils and whatever weren't an essential part, and they weren't about to just "stop doing them" to see what happened. Look at leeches: They worked, but now we know the reasons they work. On the other hand, sometimes you get stuff like trepanning, which was just a bad idea, but they didn't know, and every once in a while they got lucky, so they kept doing it. 40k basically takes that principle and applies it to tech.
It's pretty much a religious approach of science.
Encephalitis is an uncommon illness, often caused by viruses, bacteria or fungus. The brain would swell and in medieval times it would often be fatal if your immune system didn't fight the infection in time. Trepanning was the only method of reliably relieving cranial pressure from brain swelling. Sometimes, it gave the persons immune system time to fight off the infection.
Why then did they use it on "crazy" people? Because people with Encephalitis often act out of character or erratically. A trait that was shared with someone with mental health issues. So since trepanning worked on some people (who likely had Encephalitis) it didn't work on people with mental health issues. But the "barbers" (the dude that cut your hair, was also your doctor, yikes) noticed that it was effective, some of the time.
The odds of surviving trepanning were quite small but it did work (Encephalitis) and people didn't really understand why, so they made up the belief that the hole allowed Demons to escape the head and from this misunderstanding all kinds of barbarity ensued.
Great example. That feels exactly how the Machine spirit should be interpreted imo.
So that adds another factor to it.