Who did you side with? (Spoilers obviously)

[eker33]

I tried to be neutral as much as possible but ended up siding with Wulfram. Partly because of I agree with his plan to reduce military spending to help the economy and people and partly because the Royalists burned children alive... TWICE. But I'm interested to hear other views.

[Turtler]

Originally posted by LilyanaKabal:

I was neutral and with what was right. Trying to get Wulfram to not break a century of Protocol and understand why the country was as it was. And to get the Royalists to engage some more and understand that it was a poor optic for the common man, to carry on like they were.

This attempt to mediate seemed to be going somewhere as well. Managed to get the whole Cortes to sit down and shut up while I was talking.

Agreed, though I'd argue Isobel was also breaking a long time of protocol by doing things like vetoing a popular budget.

Originally posted by LilyanaKabal:

This was, of course until Wulfram's faction began to goad the civilian populace into protests just to back his own agenda. An agenda that was at complete opposition to his whole thing. The Kian Treaty would have eased the Crown's fiscal burden considerably, allowing the lowering of the War Taxes and the recovery of the country's economy.

I do think Wulfram has a right to use protests and be concerned about Kian influence (I am personally in favor of the Kian treaty for most playthroughs I'd make, but I can understand him not doing so).

Originally posted by LilyanaKabal:

When the riots that Wulfram's faction created, burned down the Old City and made things even worse for the people he was claiming to protect,

To be fair it looks like it was likely a mixture, with radicals and literal firebrands on both sides.

Not helped by apparently covert Royalist death squads going about burning people alive in their homes (almost certainly without Isobel knowing or approving, but it shows how the leaders can't always control their worst followers).

Originally posted by LilyanaKabal:

I was driven into the arms of the Royalists. I could only sit in seething anger as Wulfram lost control of the mobs he created and watch them engage in radical acts of arson and murder.

To be fair, at least many of the mobs behind those acts of arson and murder are Royalist rather than Wulframite, or serving entirely different masters. The family murders in particular smell of either a Royalist or third party provocateur.

Originally posted by LilyanaKabal:

And the sheer arrogance of the man when I went to Dinner with him as a Lieutenant-Colonel of The Dragoons. The mockery of the Royalists, the haughty, silent, laughter of a man who thought he had won and was so up his own arse he tried once again to break the very strict and very public neutrality of the Regiment.

Agreed, though both sides try to do that to some degree, though Wulfram is more persistent.

Originally posted by LilyanaKabal:

And THEN! After years of ramming his head against a brick wall with no attempt to stop for a second and think about the ♥♥♥♥ that had gone on in the city, he escalated it to full blown war, and didn't even have the guts to stand with his people when the tide turned against him.

To be fair, he has dependents elsewhere. Dying in the capital would be leaving his loyalists elsewhere abandoned and not standing with them. If Blogia should have shown anything, it's that sometimes one has to know when to beat a retreat to survive and win another day.

[Razhell]

Turtler would be very successful at Cortes.

[Turtler]

Originally posted by Razhell:

Turtler would be very successful at Cortes.

Thank you kindly, Razh d'al' Ell! I am flattered.

[FelixSylvester]

Originally posted by Razhell:

Turtler would be very successful at Cortes.

Have to disagree, their arguments are way too nuanced and well thought out to be appreciated in the Cortes lol

[FelixSylvester]

Originally posted by Turtler:

I mean, the Spitfire nearly had Tierra collapse from starvation and get bent over the barrel by other powers like Takara and Kian. There's an unhealthy co-dependency between Tierra and Antar, and Antar could THEORETICALLY bring Tierra to collapse just by going to war, refusing to export food, and blocking attempts by the other powers to do it.

So Miguel really did need to occupy Antari territory and food on a massive scale in order to accommodate the increased population of Tierra, especially if the war went long (as we know it did). I have plenty of issues with the Crown but this is not one of them.

Did Spitfires War cause so much starvation? I guess my lore knowledge is rusty on that, I recall (I think it was in Guns) the MC thinking about how the last war caused Antari Naval presence to dry up completely, thus leading to Kharangia becoming a shadow of it's former self, but I can't really recall any more than that. But you are correct, I will admit that it's at least very hard to say if there could have been a status quo ante bellum without any sort of Tierran Army presence on Antar.

Definitely also agree on the Co-Dependancy between Antar and Tierra, but I feel like it's necessary to point out that the overpriced Kian Grain wouldn't have been such a drain on the Royal Treasury if it didn't have to pay for an Invasion of Antar at the same time. If we assume that an agreement without Invasion could have been possible, then the War was pointless, but if we assume that at least some effort at a Land War was necessary, than you are correct.

Originally posted by Turtler:

I mean, a reformed army can do a lot (and indeed in the alternate Shadow Regiment canon, Mikhail Khorobirit pushes the League and Takara into war with Tierra in a prelude to a coup, and a reformed, post-civil war Tierran Army crushes both the roped-a-dope main Congress Army and the Takarans). It's an unpleasant middle ground that has to be covered if Tierra is to become the third Great Power of the Infinite Sea, and a lethal area.

True, the Army reform could shake up the established Order greatly, but I wonder if it would last. If Tierra modernized it's army and was theoretically able to beat Kian or Takara in a big battle, neither of them would just accept it. They would use their enormous ressources to modernize far more quickly, and to a far greater extent than Tierra was able to. Both of them would also still have a far superior Navy considering that the Tierran Reform only concerns the Army. I think the best case is that Tierras Army becomes disciplined and well trained enough that neither the Takarans or the Kian see a War of Conquest as worth the Cost. But I really doubt that we could ever use the Army offensively, or even on Takaran/Kian Homesoil, at least not unless something changes drastically in the Infinite Sea.

Originally posted by Turtler:

I guess it depends. The Takarans are also spectacularly racist in a way the Kian aren't to (fellow) humans, and also are at least as ruthless and unethical diplomatically if not moreso. This is OOC info but Takara's a major reason for why Tierra is in the problem it is due to them blocking any effective reparations payments from Antar.

I have to admit that i'm very biased here haha. Cassius is probably my favorite Side Character and I find Takaras Lore to be fasciniating. But even with that bias, I feel like it's not far fetched to say that Antar wouldn't have payed reperations either way. There was literally no way for Tierra to enforce that. They beat the Armies of the Congress in the field, but the second Tierran Armies were to march on Octobirit, they would get their sh*t together and unite to push us back into the Sea.

Ok, so no way to enforce it with Tierran military Presence, what about the involvement of another Great Power then? Well that's not really in anyones interest. If Takara actually tried to help out Tierra here, then the Antari would just align themselves with the Kian. The same thing would have happened if Kian tried to be involved. Antar is Great Power in decline, but it's still a Great Power and would get preferential treatment almost everytime when the alternative means supporting a Regional power close to Bankruptcy.

All that being said, I'm totally aware that Takara doesn't care about Tierra anymore than Kian.

Originally posted by Turtler:

Well, beating up on Antar so badly they don't dare to try another war so casually is that.

I guess that's fair, but one has to wonder if Antar really was hit that hard. Certain Noble Houses certainly were, but most of Antar didn't even really participate in the War. Even Khorobirit who shouldered most of the War effort and got his Allies and Ressources decimated apparently remains one of the most powerful man of Antar. He also has very good Reasons for wanting Revenge against Tierra, or at least the Crown.

To be honest, at least to me it seems like Tierra got the worse of it.

[Arcanestomper]

Khorobirit actually wrecked all the other noble houses directly after the war to keep them from turning on him. He basically had to destroy his own army to do it, but my understanding is that he's the closest thing Antar has had to a central power in a long time.

Of course it was at the cost of basically ruining Antar's entire remaining fighting force, but I wouldn't be surprised if the fifth game involves Antar vs Tierra: Round Three.

[Turtler]

Originally posted by FelixSylvester:

Have to disagree, their arguments are way too nuanced and well thought out to be appreciated in the Cortes lol

Now to see if I can use this to try and goad someone to getting me the games on Steam...

Thank you kindly Felix D'al Sylvester. Shame in the atmosphere of hyperpartisanship, but one can try.

Originally posted by FelixSylvester:

Did Spitfires War cause so much starvation? I guess my lore knowledge is rusty on that,

Starvation No, but acute hunger yes. There wasn't massive famine or people dropping dead left and right Holodomor style, but it got so bad that people in the capital were living meal to meal, and the entire nation was basically dependent upon whatever they could steal from unlucky Antari supply ships. Think something like the acute rationing and hunger of Britain during the World Wars, And by the end the system was close to collapse, and one of the major reasons pushing Tierra to make peace was how untenable it became to buy cereals from neutral powers like Takara and Kian, so it became literally more palatable to come to the peace table with a hated enemy and former overlord than to keep going.

And this was a quarter of a century or so of development and population growth ago. So a Tierra dependent on Alaric's strategy and doctrine would have to seize even MORE food from Antari ships than it did in the last war just in order to remain the same level of misery as it had in the Spitfire's time.

And the war lasted half a decade or so, not 12 years like what "Our War" lasted. So I do not see Tierra managing with just Alaric's campaign.

Originally posted by FelixSylvester:

I recall (I think it was in Guns) the MC thinking about how the last war caused Antari Naval presence to dry up completely, thus leading to Kharangia becoming a shadow of it's former self, but I can't really recall any more than that.

This is absolutely true and it's confirmed in a number of other sources, including the errata from the old Shadow Regiment game (which operates under a SLIGHTLY different canon and is older and maybe partially out of date but fitting).

However perversely that can hurt Tierra in the long turn, especially a Tierra reliant upon Antari grain and essentially mugging Antari convoys for it.

Originally posted by FelixSylvester:

But you are correct, I will admit that it's at least very hard to say if there could have been a status quo ante bellum without any sort of Tierran Army presence on Antar.

Agreed.

Originally posted by FelixSylvester:

Definitely also agree on the Co-Dependancy between Antar and Tierra, but I feel like it's necessary to point out that the overpriced Kian Grain wouldn't have been such a drain on the Royal Treasury if it didn't have to pay for an Invasion of Antar at the same time.

Agreed and I'm absolutely not denying it. The invasion had massive consequences and costs and has clearly hampered Tierra.

Originally posted by FelixSylvester:

If we assume that an agreement without Invasion could have been possible, then the War was pointless, but if we assume that at least some effort at a Land War was necessary, than you are correct.

The big issue I see is that if the war wasn't necessary, it'd involve some way of forcing the Antari to back down with a very limited war. Which I suppose is possible, but I think is unlikely since it holds on the Antari Congress somehow being pushed to reject possible peace by the invasion. Possible I suppose, but a hell of a risk.

Originally posted by FelixSylvester:

True, the Army reform could shake up the established Order greatly, but I wonder if it would last. If Tierra modernized it's army and was theoretically able to beat Kian or Takara in a big battle, neither of them would just accept it. They would use their enormous ressources to modernize far more quickly, and to a far greater extent than Tierra was able to.

Agreed, which is also why the risk is so acute at this stage in Tierran history. But ideally that's where playing the two superpowers off against each other and mustering uniquely Tierran knowledge and developments come in. It will absolutely be a massive gamble but hardly an unprecedented one.

Originally posted by FelixSylvester:

Both of them would also still have a far superior Navy considering that the Tierran Reform only concerns the Army.

I'm not sure the reforms only concern the army so much as they're just what we see, given the land based focus. Though I agree that the reforms in the navy would be much less acute due to how feeble Antari naval power is and was, and the fewer lessons learned.

But I agree both Takara and Kian have vastly superior navies.

Originally posted by FelixSylvester:

I think the best case is that Tierras Army becomes disciplined and well trained enough that neither the Takarans or the Kian see a War of Conquest as worth the Cost. But I really doubt that we could ever use the Army offensively, or even on Takaran/Kian Homesoil, at least not unless something changes drastically in the Infinite Sea.

Absolutely agreed, which is also why I don't see Tierra trying to invade either Kian or Takara proper (events that nearly brought about things close to an apocalypse when done by the rival superpowers, let alone a middle of the road one like Tierra). Tierran strategy and policy is not made that way. And a force structure and scope like that will serve Tierra as it struggles to climb the greasy poll into superpower status.

Originally posted by FelixSylvester:

I have to admit that i'm very biased here haha. Cassius is probably my favorite Side Character and I find Takaras Lore to be fasciniating.

Oh agreed, and I was much more heavily pro-Takara than I was up until I saw the errata about both sides in negotiations.

Though I note that Cassius's father was almost certainly killed by hardliners in Takara precisely because he was so relatively approachable to "barbarians."

Originally posted by FelixSylvester:

But even with that bias, I feel like it's not far fetched to say that Antar wouldn't have payed reperations either way.

Agreed, that's definitely what the Antari Lords felt like, and Takaran influence in that sense amounted to helping push them to do what they already wanted to (at least on that note).

Originally posted by FelixSylvester:

There was literally no way for Tierra to enforce that. They beat the Armies of the Congress in the field, but the second Tierran Armies were to march on Octobirit, they would get their sh*t together and unite to push us back into the Sea.

I think you greatly overestimate the coherence and competence of the "Noble Lords of the Congress", especially given how many of them didn't even wait until the war with Tierra was over before trying to pounce on Khorobirit.

But I agree there was little way for Tierra to enforce it, and perversely the best way to do it was to lean on other powers like the M, K, and T. Which under other circumstances they might have been willing to go along with but NOT In this case.

Originally posted by FelixSylvester:

Ok, so no way to enforce it with Tierran military Presence, what about the involvement of another Great Power then? Well that's not really in anyones interest. If Takara actually tried to help out Tierra here, then the Antari would just align themselves with the Kian. The same thing would have happened if Kian tried to be involved. Antar is Great Power in decline, but it's still a Great Power and would get preferential treatment almost everytime when the alternative means supporting a Regional power close to Bankruptcy.

Agreed.

Originally posted by FelixSylvester:

All that being said, I'm totally aware that Takara doesn't care about Tierra anymore than Kian.

Indeed.

Originally posted by FelixSylvester:

I guess that's fair, but one has to wonder if Antar really was hit that hard. Certain Noble Houses certainly were, but most of Antar didn't even really participate in the War. Even Khorobirit who shouldered most of the War effort and got his Allies and Ressources decimated apparently remains one of the most powerful man of Antar. He also has very good Reasons for wanting Revenge against Tierra, or at least the Crown.

To be honest, at least to me it seems like Tierra got the worse of it.

Well, it's worth noting how things have developed. Prior to Alaric Spitfire, Antar essentially viewed and treated Tierra as an exotic vassal state or serf, a client state it had by the throat (and we KNOW how most Antari Lords treat their serfs, don't we). Alaric beat that out of them and forced them to acknowledge Tierran independence in practice as well as in formality. But that didn't make them HAPPY about it and it's clear a majority of the Congress leaped at the opportunity the first time they saw what they thought was a Tierran weakening to declare war and essentially try to cow Tierra back.

That didn't work due to King Miguel and our friends, so now Antar has been forced to acknowledge its "vassal" beat them up and ravaged much of their lands, including reaching Octobirit itself. Which is one reason why the Antari - even the hardliners - are doing as little externally as they can to avoid a possible backlash. That's something, and not at all to be understated.

Moreover, Lord Khorobirit was already influential and is a genius brute, so he was able to rebuild his fortunes fairly well (especially since his resource base - though weakened - was still powerful and supplemented by scalping those of his unfortunate former allies).

That said I agree Tierra was hurt badly in terms of the gains compared to the damage (doubtless partially by design).

Originally posted by Arcanestomper:

Khorobirit actually wrecked all the other noble houses directly after the war to keep them from turning on him. He basically had to destroy his own army to do it, but my understanding is that he's the closest thing Antar has had to a central power in a long time.

Of course it was at the cost of basically ruining Antar's entire remaining fighting force, but I wouldn't be surprised if the fifth game involves Antar vs Tierra: Round Three.

Well, I opened my posts here by talking extensively about Shadow Regiment, which isn't canon any more but is something to consider. Basically a game where you play Antari resistance in a slightly alternative timeline where - among other things- Khorobirit's wife was killed, and he responded to this after years of patiently waiting by goading the League Congress and Takara into war with Tierra in order to weaken and distract them before launching a coup, destroying the Congress (at least in any meaningful form), and declaring himself the High King of Antar and "White King."

At which point he basically jammed a totalitarian government onto Antar and went full modernization and industrialization ala Stalin-meets-Ivan the Terrible in order to build up a war machine that can genocide Tierra.

Again, none of this has happened YET and won't in the exact same fashion.... but let's just say I'd be VERY SURPRISED if future events in the Sabers saga are COMPLETELY UNLIKE that storyline.

[PandaCraventail]

The war was necessary, Tierra got little choices in the matter anyway, either slowly draining the treasury buying grains from Kian and accept a slow dead or gamble it all and won the war as fast as possible. Antar can afford to hold out forever, Tierra can't, unfortunally thing didn't turn out as well as Tierra had hope.

Being dependent on a crucial resources to another country is a dangerous thing, if you lack the foods or water to feed your own people and have to buy from another country, you are very much at the mercy of that country whim and wish.

About the matter of Antar, after the second battle of Kharangia, Antar forces was pretty much broken and defeated, the only man can united them is defeated and won't be able to raise an army as big as before since the Antar league lords are basically revert to fighting among themself. And another advantages that the Antar army have is the newly organized and properly trained brigades that Prince Khorobirit hand-pick himself is gone too with him. Also the biggest threat to Tierra army, the Church Hussars is mostly gone after the battle too, as is what going on after the battle, some Antari lords still try to raise an army to attack Tierra but not a united one and neither does it have the Church Hussars or the organized and trained army that Prince Khorobirit have. It was a one side slaughter of peasant levies and idiotic lords.

But to take control of Antar is another thing, their army is defeated but their people isn't, to fully take over Antar would required even more mens and resource that Tierra doesn't have, Antar is unlikely to united again but they wouldn't surrender either, it will be a massive pain to deal with a guerilla war and have to take village by village, city by city only to easily lost them to rebellions, they could have just capture the farming field of course since that was their goal but still it would take a considerable amount of mens to guard it effectively.

But all that doesn't really matter much anyway. Tierra got their victory, Antar forces is broken, they didn't have to push further anymore, they only need a leverage to be in an advantageous position and force Antar to the negotiating table which they did but due to Takaran meddling the peace treaty have come to a white peace which both side got nothing and nobody is happy.

[eker33]

Originally posted by PandaCraventail:

But all that doesn't really matter much anyway. Tierra got their victory, Antar forces is broken, they didn't have to push further anymore, they only need a leverage to be in an advantageous position and force Antar to the negotiating table which they did but due to Takaran meddling the peace treaty have come to a white peace which both side got nothing and nobody is happy.

I mean Tierra got some land and reparations, just not as much as they wanted and could have got without the elves interfering

[LilyanaKabal]

Originally posted by Turtler:

Agreed, though I'd argue Isobel was also breaking a long time of protocol by doing things like vetoing a popular budget.

Wulfram's bragging and crowing at the dinner makes it clear that if Izzy had allowed the vote to pass, she would have lost any sense of authority, and been 'Queen' by Wulfram's allowance alone. The Veto was her only choice. And not explicitly against protocol either, since she is the Queen.

Originally posted by Turtler:

I do think Wulfram has a right to use protests and be concerned about Kian influence (I am personally in favor of the Kian treaty for most playthroughs I'd make, but I can understand him not doing so).

I would argue that while as a Lord of Cortes, and a Duke of Terria, he has the *right* to do anything, the act of rabble-rousing, stirring up the populace to anger and using that as a stick to beat the Cortes into agreement with his is uncouth at best, and Ungentlemanly at worst. If the War Taxes were just lifted, and the army cut down, the country would be in exactly the same position as it was because anything you save cutting down the Army, you lose paying off the debts the War Taxes were paying.

Plus, the country is already suffering a job shortage due to the retired solders form Antar. Throwing even more now unemployed soldiers into that is just going to make things even worse for the country. Maybe Kian influence does make a mess of things eventually, but as Paller said when you are about to storm the Embassy, there is no point griping about a distant possibility, when you have a present issue here and now.

Originally posted by Turtler:

To be fair it looks like it was likely a mixture, with radicals and literal firebrands on both sides.

Not helped by apparently covert Royalist death squads going about burning people alive in their homes (almost certainly without Isobel knowing or approving, but it shows how the leaders can't always control their worst followers).

There are always going to be radicals on each side. But Wulfram drew the battle-lines, he started with the rabble-rousing, the indirect attacks and the goading of the civilians. Everything else was just reaction to his move. He might have been careless about the thoughts of escalation, or maybe - as the dinner shows - his arrogance blinded him to the repercussions of what he was starting. But it was still him who lit the first match, and let loose the dogs.

Originally posted by Turtler:

To be fair, at least many of the mobs behind those acts of arson and murder are Royalist rather than Wulframite, or serving entirely different masters. The family murders in particular smell of either a Royalist or third party provocateur.

Wulfram's manor burning was very suspicious. Far too well timed for the situation, so it was most probably a third party, either a nutjob who is just using the chaos for his own ends - as is often the case in real life - or the Takarans who had been on Wulfram's side for a long time now, and probably wanted to goad a better response. Or a hardline Wulfram who needs something major now that the Royalists are not falling apart as predicted. No Royalist would have done such a thing, because it would - and did - hurt their cause considerably with no upside.

Originally posted by Turtler:

Agreed, though both sides try to do that to some degree, though Wulfram is more persistent.

The point that rubbed me the wrong way was his Bond Villian Cat-Stroking speech, and almost stating 'the only choice you have left is to join me. So why fight it?'

Originally posted by Turtler:

To be fair, he has dependents elsewhere. Dying in the capital would be leaving his loyalists elsewhere abandoned and not standing with them. If Blogia should have shown anything, it's that sometimes one has to know when to beat a retreat to survive and win another day.

At the point he has dragged everyone to, we are no longer fair to him. If he had dependants elsewhere, he shouldn't have started a military coup.

[Elysian]

Originally posted by LilyanaKabal:

Plus, the country is already suffering a job shortage due to the retired solders form Antar. Throwing even more now unemployed soldiers into that is just going to make things even worse for the country.

Not to mention the absolute masses of Antari serfs who now also live in Tierra and thus making the job shortage even more massive

Originally posted by LilyanaKabal:

He might have been careless about the thoughts of escalation, or maybe - as the dinner shows - his arrogance blinded him to the repercussions of what he was starting.

Much like his father before him.

[LilyanaKabal]

I thought the Antari serfs event was more a "Somehow, some of these ended up here, of all places" rather than it being a country-wide issue.

[stm8022]

Originally posted by LilyanaKabal:

I thought the Antari serfs event was more a "Somehow, some of these ended up here, of all places" rather than it being a country-wide issue.

It is indeed widespread issue, as mentioned in "Affairs of State" section:

Spring 614

With the arrival of spring, many groups of Antari refugees take to the countryside in search of work. Many find themselves met with hostility by distrustful locals, who fear that their lords may evict them from their plots to replace them with the Antari.

Autumn 613

Displaced by the terms of the peace settlement and the vagaries of Antari politics, hundreds of thousands of Antari serfs leave (or are removed from) their homes. Many head for Tierra in hopes of rebuilding their lives.

[Turtler]

Originally posted by LilyanaKabal:

Wulfram's bragging and crowing at the dinner makes it clear that if Izzy had allowed the vote to pass, she would have lost any sense of authority, and been 'Queen' by Wulfram's allowance alone. The Veto was her only choice. And not explicitly against protocol either, since she is the Queen.

Honestly I can't agree. Wulfram is proud and too ambitious for his or the realm's good (though I can say the same for Izzy), but his bill was highly popular and at least some of its aspects were needed. Moreover, the fact remains that the monarchy as an institution remains far more popular than Wulfram is, even if Isobel herself is not. Moreover, there are always more fights to be had in the legislature.

She staked out the position and decided to fight it out, probably in part to assert her influence and if possible stymie Wulfram.

Originally posted by LilyanaKabal:

I would argue that while as a Lord of Cortes, and a Duke of Terria, he has the *right* to do anything, the act of rabble-rousing, stirring up the populace to anger and using that as a stick to beat the Cortes into agreement with his is uncouth at best, and Ungentlemanly at worst.

Agreed, but it is also far more democratic. The mob may not be a hugely reliable or tempered force and as we see in game it can lead to all kinds of misdeeds, but it also represents a crossection of the common Tierrans that have done most of the fighting, dying, paying, and working in the realm and for the country. And while he might have gotten the ball rolling the Royalists are not hesitant at sending their own, and

Originally posted by LilyanaKabal:

If the War Taxes were just lifted, and the army cut down, the country would be in exactly the same position as it was because anything you save cutting down the Army, you lose paying off the debts the War Taxes were paying.

That is a very real problem and well worth noting, but the finances ultimately come from the populace, who are getting screwed by continued emergency war taxation. Which is hurting the ability of the economy to recover and for other ways to be arranged, such as emergency/mandatory loans between the government and the public. It also sets a very dangerous precedent of "wartime" taxes during a time of peace, which is very open to abuse.

Originally posted by LilyanaKabal:

Plus, the country is already suffering a job shortage due to the retired solders form Antar. Throwing even more now unemployed soldiers into that is just going to make things even worse for the country. Maybe Kian influence does make a mess of things eventually, but as Paller said when you are about to storm the Embassy, there is no point griping about a distant possibility, when you have a present issue here and now.

Agreed, which is why I am generally in favor of the Kian Treaty, for the most part.

Originally posted by LilyanaKabal:

There are always going to be radicals on each side. But Wulfram drew the battle-lines, he started with the rabble-rousing, the indirect attacks and the goading of the civilians.

Fair.

Originally posted by LilyanaKabal:

Everything else was just reaction to his move.

Sure, but not all reactions are equal. Moreover, trying to jam the square peg of royal veto

Originally posted by LilyanaKabal:

He might have been careless about the thoughts of escalation, or maybe - as the dinner shows - his arrogance blinded him to the repercussions of what he was starting. But it was still him who lit the first match, and let loose the dogs.

Sure, but he also had reason to believe that lobbying and peaceful demonstrations outside the Cortes would not explode, often quite literally.

Originally posted by LilyanaKabal:

Wulfram's manor burning was very suspicious. Far too well timed for the situation, so it was most probably a third party, either a nutjob who is just using the chaos for his own ends - as is often the case in real life - or the Takarans who had been on Wulfram's side for a long time now, and probably wanted to goad a better response.

Agreed, or the Kian.

Originally posted by LilyanaKabal:

Or a hardline Wulfram who needs something major now that the Royalists are not falling apart as predicted.

I don't see a Wulframite doing THAT because of THAT. Maybe for other reasons like to spur Wulfram into action or burn diplomatic bridges, but if you want to help push the Royalists to collapse you go after one of their VIPs, not Wulfram's family.

You may or may not actually care a damn about Wulfram or his family in terms of affection or genuine loyalty, but as others pointed out burning his family to death is quite likely to backfire and risk the Wulframites collapsing.

Originally posted by LilyanaKabal:

No Royalist would have done such a thing, because it would - and did - hurt their cause considerably with no upside.

I'm skeptical. This is very similar to the Anti-Khorobirit Op we can pull with Royal Intel in Guns. Screw with "Enemy" leader by going after his family and hope it results in funnei things with his mentality, such as them either going berserk or collapsing into despair (or both).

Thing is, this was even more brutal than that operation, since while Katarina is the steel cold ♥♥♥♥♥ we all know and love and more than willing to do a casual war crime or two she was never OBSESSED with killing the Khorobirit family if they could be captured. Just so long as they didn't get the way.

Whoever pulled the Wulfram Arson and the Printer Arsons was of a far bloodier mindset, and if you want to give a demonstration of your power and the costs of contradicting the Crown it's hard to up this, even if Isobel wouldn't be on board.

There's also the rule of Unintended Consequences. The Khorobirit Op was in the short and medium term a great boon to Tierra since it essentially decided the war by getting Mikhail to destroy his army and resources seeking revenge. But in the Shadow Regiment timeline it outright pushes his hatred of Tierra to outright seeking genocide on his terms.

We could also see this here. That a possible royalist hardliner pulled this op in order to try and destroy Wulfram outright or otherwise screw with the opposition, and did not expect the extreme nature of the flare up in response, but ca still hope to destroy armed or dedicated resistance.

Originally posted by LilyanaKabal:

The point that rubbed me the wrong way was his Bond Villian Cat-Stroking speech, and almost stating 'the only choice you have left is to join me. So why fight it?'

Agreed, and that is something that rubbed everyone both.

Originally posted by LilyanaKabal:

At the point he has dragged everyone to, we are no longer fair to him. If he had dependants elsewhere, he shouldn't have started a military coup.

So much of his political platform and actions are based on the fact that he has dependents. Taxation is hurting them and him massively and we know how important Noblesse Oblige is to Tierran Nobility (indeed, it's something put front and center in the Kian Intel Briefings on Tierra). And the arsons mean that now somebody is very obviously going around targeting his dependents with death even when there was a time of peace.

That's going to seriously push things.

And if he can't seize the capital, he needs to pull back to do something that won't fail completely. Again, this is not some kind of political point; King Miguel pulled back after Blogia, and so did Khorobirit.

Originally posted by LilyanaKabal:

I thought the Antari serfs event was more a "Somehow, some of these ended up here, of all places" rather than it being a country-wide issue.

Yeah. To be honest I'm baffled why they are such an issue, even if Antar is obviously suffering badly and probably falling to moderate scale anarchy.

[Arcanestomper]

Tierra did just win. That had to have left an impression on the average Antar serf. And it's unlikely that they know just how much strain it put on the Tierran economy. Not until they make the trip. At which point it's too late.

Honestly though the Antarran serfs are one of the better things to happen to Tierra. I was able to integrate them nicely into my estate, and the practice spread to all my neighbors. They weren't a drain at all beyond the first year of getting them set up.