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(TL;DR: Numbers correspond to coordinates, especially first and last lines. Some very basic math involved. Not sure what middle line is saying.)
I found the staff but only by using the first and last line. We know Farell sailed out of Europe (from Portugal) and sailed for about two weeks to arrive in Iceland. Then the next log is on April 21 and they've been searching "for several days" after presumably leaving Reykjavik, so we know the "island" they speak of is close to the port. That means the "island" is Greenland.
As for the riddle, it's talking about the coordinates.
13 apples with 5 spots each = 13 x 5 = 65.
13 pomegranates from each of 3 western islands = 13 x 3 = 39, and the line mentioned WEST so I took this as meaning W39.
Looking at the map, there is one spot on the coast of Greenland that corresponds to W39, and it's also N65 on latitude. I found the staff at these coordinates (just scan with lookout).
I believe that the middle line is possibly awkwardly translated. I'm not completely fluent in Japanese, but the Japanese version reads more like "There are 26 pomegranates which fell into the water and are not counted." Thus I think that that line might actually be a red herring.
I had an inkling that was the case. The English translation in this game is not perfect but I hope they pay special attention to the riddles and clues - especially the shipwreck clues with no picture guide. Still trying to find the Pioneer shipwreck that should be near Socotra...
I'm guessing the coordinates from line 1 and line 3 converge over a body of water.
I've had it before, but it never triggered during my 100% run.
Strange, pretty sure I had it trigger every single playthrough, so far my theory was that it just triggers at some point not with any special trigger.
Initially, I'd heard it would happen in certain areas, but having played through 5 MCs now, it happens anywhere. I think the game rolls dice whenever you're weathering a storm at sea, and it's probably a relatively low chance.
It usually happens in mid to late game for me, I don't remember it ever happening early, so maybe a certain amount of time has to pass first, as well.
That event sure is taking its sweet time... I've almost cleared all the quests, clues, discoveries, etc.
EDIT: well, anyway, I went and got the Saint's Staff on a previous save, then got Collector on my 100% save after that by getting the Seven Swords. I guess it all worked out in the end.