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I chose San Diego State as my Prestige 1 school in a weaker conference and have been slowly climbing the Prestige ladder ever since.
I mean to an extent that's the nature of football games. You call a goal line defense on 3rd and 1 at the 50 because you know the AI isn't going to trick you, you run overlapping routes against zone and routes with a bunch of moves and motions against man. It isn't a completely trivial thing unlike Madden, but you can still heavily stack the deck in your favor with the right playcalls. The problem is more "the things which you can't control suddenly all turn against you on a dime."
I picked Kent State with the expectation of winning 3-4 games year one, but when I call the plays instead of purely simming, I either blowout opponents who never make adjustments or I have a great first half before everything just... inexplicably stops working.
Honestly I've just started simming until five minutes left in the game, then I make a few adjustments based on what I need to do, and that seems to win me the majority of close games. I can't prevent a blowout, but if it's a one-possession game it really just seems like the AI can't adjust to me suddenly calling what beats them as opposed to if I've done it the whole game.