9 turns, I draw ZERO land.

[MΛRCUS HΞLIUS]

26 land, standard 60 card deck.
Opening hand 2 lands.
9 turns and I draw no lands.
Can anyone tell me the probability of going 9 turns without drawing a land?

(what's also funny is I immediately know the match is a loss when I start with 2 land hand, it's easy to notice the algorithm now that I have played thousands of games)

[PlanB]

Assuming you already have a 7 card hand, with 2 lands in it, your chances of drawing a nonland with your next draw are 29/53 (Since there's 53 cards left in your deck, out of which 29 are nonlands). On the turn after, it's 28/52, then 27/51, etc.

To get the probability of drawing at least one land in your next 9 turns, we can do (29 / 53) * (28 / 52) * (27 / 51) * (26 / 50) * (25 / 49) * (24 / 48) * (23 / 47) * (22 / 46) * (21 / 45) = about 0.23%!

Which means that on average, this should occur roughly 2-3 times per one thousand games (assuming all your games last for 9 turns). If you've played multiple thousands of games, you've probably gotten this unlucky a handful of times already!

[ʍolɟ ǝɥʇ ǝsɹǝʌǝɹ]

I'm surprised the game lasted 9 turns with you being mana screwed. Does the enemy not attack ever?

[MΛRCUS HΞLIUS]

Originally posted by ʍolɟ ǝɥʇ ǝsɹǝʌǝɹ:

I'm surprised the game lasted 9 turns with you being mana screwed. Does the enemy not attack ever?

In ranked you end up matched against some really stupid decks...

And I had two cheap removal and a cheap creature in my opening hand

[its a prank]

Something similar happened to me at least twice yesterday, it was some offmeta decks that had no chance in a lot of matchups.

One of them was some artifact blue/white control deck. He didnt win until hu summoned 12 artifacts and me sitting on 3 lands :D
And the other one was some plainswalker decks, the dude got to play 8 plainswalkers before winning the game.
I didnt draw my 3rd land util the dudes got like 8-7 lands.

The 3rd one was like yesterday or before against a domain deck, but it happened to me againt that specific deck more that once, I guess because it fairly popular and has low chances of winning in current agro meta.

[Doctor Zalgo]

Originally posted by MΛRCUS HΞLIUS:

26 land, standard 60 card deck.
Opening hand 2 lands.
9 turns and I draw no lands.
Can anyone tell me the probability of going 9 turns without drawing a land?

(what's also funny is I immediately know the match is a loss when I start with 2 land hand, it's easy to notice the algorithm now that I have played thousands of games)

For the love of god, put cards that help you draw more cards in your deck. A 2 land start should not be a write off, especially if you've played 'thousands of games'.

[MΛRCUS HΞLIUS]

Originally posted by Doctor Zalgo:

Originally posted by MΛRCUS HΞLIUS:

26 land, standard 60 card deck.
Opening hand 2 lands.
9 turns and I draw no lands.
Can anyone tell me the probability of going 9 turns without drawing a land?

(what's also funny is I immediately know the match is a loss when I start with 2 land hand, it's easy to notice the algorithm now that I have played thousands of games)

For the love of god, put cards that help you draw more cards in your deck. A 2 land start should not be a write off, especially if you've played 'thousands of games'.

I have
3x Phyrexian Arena's
2x The One Ring
3x Cosmos Elixir
4x Castle Locthwain
Card Draw is usually not a problem if I just get 3 mana. XD

[ʍolɟ ǝɥʇ ǝsɹǝʌǝɹ]

Originally posted by PlanB:

Assuming you already have a 7 card hand, with 2 lands in it, your chances of drawing a nonland with your next draw are 29/53 (Since there's 53 cards left in your deck, out of which 29 are nonlands). On the turn after, it's 28/52, then 27/51, etc.

To get the probability of drawing at least one land in your next 9 turns, we can do (29 / 53) * (28 / 52) * (27 / 51) * (26 / 50) * (25 / 49) * (24 / 48) * (23 / 47) * (22 / 46) * (21 / 45) = about 0.23%!

Which means that on average, this should occur roughly 2-3 times per one thousand games (assuming all your games last for 9 turns). If you've played multiple thousands of games, you've probably gotten this unlucky a handful of times already!

Is this called hyperbolic probability? Some of the calculation sites seem to.

[Quazy]

Originally posted by Doctor Zalgo:

Originally posted by MΛRCUS HΞLIUS:

26 land, standard 60 card deck.
Opening hand 2 lands.
9 turns and I draw no lands.
Can anyone tell me the probability of going 9 turns without drawing a land?

(what's also funny is I immediately know the match is a loss when I start with 2 land hand, it's easy to notice the algorithm now that I have played thousands of games)

For the love of god, put cards that help you draw more cards in your deck. A 2 land start should not be a write off, especially if you've played 'thousands of games'.

2 land hands are always write off's unless ur a speed deck. the shuffler is rigged to try to give good starting hands.

this means when u draw your hand. there is a good chance the shuffler pushed mana to the back of your deck till you get the prefered 2-3 land. or push creatures to the back of your deck to get that land giving u a higher chance at mana flooding.
now all the shuffler needs to do is shuffle again. but it doesn't unless...

why was it written this way u may ask? simple. you cant influence a non rigged shuffler. and people who spend lots of $$ will get the extra shuffler for a month while leeches playing their game will get the rigged shuffler.

(while the video has been removed, there was 1 of the admin tools interface being illegally accessed. where their was plenty of shuffler input option like starting land in hand and # of cards to dig threw for said land)

this makes the people who spend more feel better about playing their game. classic tactic from free to play games these days.

[Sicris]

When people gonna learn the shuffler is rigged. I had games where i mill half my deck and it only gives me 2 lands, the 2 I started with. Despite adding a crapton of lands to get around the stupid thing