How many games without seeing 1 of a full 4 in the opening hand should worry me

[ʍolɟ ǝɥʇ ǝsɹǝʌǝɹ]

It feels buried. After 7-8 hands I don't want to play anymore. It's to the point I'm scooping looking for it and it still doesn't come up. Any explanation for this?

[Berserkr]

What's the card you're wanting to find in your deck? What colors are you playing? You're at the minimum 60 cards and no more?

[Malvastor]

Here:

https://www.mtgnexus.com/tools/drawodds/

If you have four of the card in a deck of 60, you have a roughly 34% chance of seeing it in your first draw. 7-8 games without seeing it is an unlucky streak, but not really wildly implausible. Ideally you don't want to depend that heavily on having a specific card in your opening hand.

[DontMisunderstand]

In a 60 card deck, there's a 60% chance your opening hand has 0 of a 4-of. It's literally more likely not to have any than to have them.

For comparison, in a 60 card deck with 24 lands, your opening hand has a roughly 58% chance of having 3 or more lands.

Combine these two factors, and the chance you have both 3+ lands AND the 1 specific 4-of is like 23%. Legitimately, the chance of you never getting it in 8 tries is over 12%. The explanation for why you're seeing this is because it's genuinely a common outcome, according the basic probability of a randomized deck of cards.

[ʍolɟ ǝɥʇ ǝsɹǝʌǝɹ]

I was looking for fight rigging since I could add the new 6/2 hound from the new set to trigger it. I had 62 cards after adding those. Can't seem to get it though

[Snoot Boops]

lower your deck size to 60 and you'll get whatever you're looking for more often.

[Berserkr]

Originally posted by ʍolɟ ǝɥʇ ǝsɹǝʌǝɹ:

I was looking for fight rigging since I could add the new 6/2 hound from the new set to trigger it. I had 62 cards after adding those. Can't seem to get it though

OK so black and green? you have a few fetch options, if it's standard you have diabolic intent, the cruelty of Gix and assemble the team, i'd toss a few assemble the team in there if you don't have them already, a couple fetches should help

[ʍolɟ ǝɥʇ ǝsɹǝʌǝɹ]

Originally posted by Berserkr:

Originally posted by ʍolɟ ǝɥʇ ǝsɹǝʌǝɹ:

I was looking for fight rigging since I could add the new 6/2 hound from the new set to trigger it. I had 62 cards after adding those. Can't seem to get it though

OK so black and green? you have a few fetch options, if it's standard you have diabolic intent, the cruelty of Gix and assemble the team, i'd toss a few assemble the team in there if you don't have them already, a couple fetches should help

That seems really helpful. Thanks.

My intuition was telling me something was wrong. I guess I was just really Unlucky

[Berserkr]

Originally posted by ʍolɟ ǝɥʇ ǝsɹǝʌǝɹ:

That seems really helpful. Thanks

Np oh and cut your deck down to 60 cards lol
you can even post it here so people can tell you what might go better in it

[TheStoryteller01]

My solution to this problem is to build a deck that includes 16 cards you're completely happy to see in your opening hand.

[DontMisunderstand]

Originally posted by TheStoryteller01:

My solution to this problem is to build a deck that includes 16 cards you're completely happy to see in your opening hand.

... surely you mean 60 rather than 16?

[TheStoryteller01]

No, I mean a 60 card deck that is not completely dependent on a meagre 4 cards but that has at least 16 cards that make your deck work if 1 or 2 of those show up in your starting hand

[DontMisunderstand]

Originally posted by TheStoryteller01:

No, I mean a 60 card deck that is not completely dependent on a meagre 4 cards but that has at least 16 cards that make your deck work if 1 or 2 of those show up in your starting hand

Why are you putting cards in your deck that you don't want?

[Berserkr]

Originally posted by DontMisunderstand:

Why are you putting cards in your deck that you don't want?

You're reading way too much into it lol

[TheStoryteller01]

Originally posted by DontMisunderstand:

Originally posted by TheStoryteller01:

No, I mean a 60 card deck that is not completely dependent on a meagre 4 cards but that has at least 16 cards that make your deck work if 1 or 2 of those show up in your starting hand

Why are you putting cards in your deck that you don't want?

The better question is: why do you use an autotranslate app that doesn't work?

[ʍolɟ ǝɥʇ ǝsɹǝʌǝɹ]

I'm getting the same thing happening with a different card. Insidious roots. I've only seen it 3 times out of 20 matchs. I don't think I'm this lucky guys. It doesn't feel right. And no this deck doesn't rely on that card alone, it's got willow giest too. I'm not drawing into it either.

My short list of buried cards so far:
Fight rigging
Insidious roots