Draw RNG

[Maiex]

Why do me and my friends get the strangest card draw in comparison to IRL playing... Its way more often to never draw land or to always draw land than when playing in person, with identical or near identical land:spell ratio..?

[Soji]

Originally posted by Max Six:

I suspect this is a case of confirmation bias. On Arena most people play MANY more games than IRL. When something anomalous happens it's noticed and sticksin a persons memory. Occurrences of similar situations stand out (and are more likely to repeat when playing a large number of games) and there's a tendency towards remembering the times the situation you're primed for occurs and forgetting how many times it doesn't.

Its either confirmation bias or they're not properly shuffling IRL which the latter is the case most of the time from my experience. Whether it be mana weaving or some other technique which isn't allowed

It also could just be a case of them not remembering in person because playing IRL is a much different experience than arena. Even if you lose you're surrounded by (usually) good people who share an interest so you can still shoot the breeze with them if you lose out. On arena its just another avatar who can't communicate past rudimentary phrases like hello or good game, so it probably feels worse, meaning they remember it more than in person

[Maiex]

Originally posted by Brother Alpha:

Originally posted by Maiex:

Having 24 lands in a deck, starting with 3, then pulling 6 in a row regularly, isnt random lmao.. to hit a roughly 33% chance, that drops each time you pull a land, 6 times in a row, isnt randomized. Or the complete opposite.

Do the math. Go on... actually do the math. Tell us what the odds of that happening are.

If you don't know how to do the math, then you have no justification to say the game is rigged.

I've already roughly done the math for 2 seperate games in this forum that had happened in the same day, one my brother and one was me.. we both played around 5 games for them to happen. they were both sub 1% chance, i have one of the games clipped too if you'd like to see (the 0.12% that i talked about)

[mwesthoff]

Originally posted by Insomniac Jack:

Originally posted by Maiex:

Ahahahaha my friend just drew 7 land in a row after already having 6 land on the field, near imposssible RNG... this ♥♥♥♥ is so rigged

Those are rookie numbers, I recently drew 16 out of 22 lands in the top 1/3 of my deck (60 cards), the randomness was palpable...

I have you beat, I drew 12 lands in a 40 card draft deck that only had 17 lands in it. I had three lands in my opening hand and then preceded to draw 12 lands and one creature. 15 out of 17 lands on turn 13 from a 40 card deck.

[Berserkr]

Originally posted by mwesthoff:

I have you beat, I drew 12 lands in a 40 card draft deck that only had 17 lands in it. I had three lands in my opening hand and then preceded to draw 12 lands and one creature. 15 out of 17 lands on turn 13 from a 40 card deck.

Almost sounds like I shuffled your cards, I always sucked at shuffling

[Maiex]

Originally posted by mwesthoff:

Originally posted by Insomniac Jack:

Those are rookie numbers, I recently drew 16 out of 22 lands in the top 1/3 of my deck (60 cards), the randomness was palpable...

I have you beat, I drew 12 lands in a 40 card draft deck that only had 17 lands in it. I had three lands in my opening hand and then preceded to draw 12 lands and one creature. 15 out of 17 lands on turn 13 from a 40 card deck.

That makes sense that you lasted 12 turns of pure land draws

[Insomniac Jack]

Originally posted by mwesthoff:

Originally posted by Insomniac Jack:

Those are rookie numbers, I recently drew 16 out of 22 lands in the top 1/3 of my deck (60 cards), the randomness was palpable...

I have you beat, I drew 12 lands in a 40 card draft deck that only had 17 lands in it. I had three lands in my opening hand and then preceded to draw 12 lands and one creature. 15 out of 17 lands on turn 13 from a 40 card deck.

Don't you just love it when that happens? That's just Arena reminding you that you're getting "tilted" and experiencing "variance", at least according to the rocket scientists on these forums.

[mwesthoff]

Originally posted by Maiex:

Originally posted by mwesthoff:

I have you beat, I drew 12 lands in a 40 card draft deck that only had 17 lands in it. I had three lands in my opening hand and then preceded to draw 12 lands and one creature. 15 out of 17 lands on turn 13 from a 40 card deck.

That makes sense that you lasted 12 turns of pure land draws

My hand had 3 lands 3 removals and one creature... ever play draft? I drew 12 lands and another creature. 15 lands 3 removals and 2 creatures is more than enough to make it to turn 13 in draft. The mana curve for draft is higher than constructed most of the time. You should try it.

[PJ]

Originally posted by Maiex:

Originally posted by PJ:

Sure you are bud. That's why you came pre-packaged with all the usual talking points.

I downloaded the game for the first time 3 weeks ago and played the tutorial, started actually playing a week ago.. What "usual talking points" are you talking about... The same RNG that everyone is seeing thats impossible to see so often? You just outed yourself as talking about this often, so if this was a bait post, and you are continuing to question it, how are you still taking the bait? lmao delusional. Dont reply until you explain how the its normal to hit below 0.1% chance majority of games

Yes, those talking points. You're basically a copypasta.

Also you just went through all 5 stages of grief in that post... so that's impressive.

[Maiex]

Originally posted by mwesthoff:

Originally posted by Maiex:

That makes sense that you lasted 12 turns of pure land draws

My hand had 3 lands 3 removals and one creature... ever play draft? I drew 12 lands and another creature. 15 lands 3 removals and 2 creatures is more than enough to make it to turn 13 in draft. The mana curve for draft is higher than constructed most of the time. You should try it.

will do

[Maiex]

Originally posted by PJ:

Originally posted by Maiex:

I downloaded the game for the first time 3 weeks ago and played the tutorial, started actually playing a week ago.. What "usual talking points" are you talking about... The same RNG that everyone is seeing thats impossible to see so often? You just outed yourself as talking about this often, so if this was a bait post, and you are continuing to question it, how are you still taking the bait? lmao delusional. Dont reply until you explain how the its normal to hit below 0.1% chance majority of games

Yes, those talking points. You're basically a copypasta.

Also you just went through all 5 stages of grief in that post... so that's impressive.

care to back anything up like im doing? Or are you too shallow minded

[Brother Alpha]

Originally posted by Maiex:

Originally posted by Brother Alpha:

Do the math. Go on... actually do the math. Tell us what the odds of that happening are.

If you don't know how to do the math, then you have no justification to say the game is rigged.

I've already roughly done the math for 2 seperate games in this forum that had happened in the same day, one my brother and one was me.. we both played around 5 games for them to happen. they were both sub 1% chance, i have one of the games clipped too if you'd like to see (the 0.12% that i talked about)

There are approximately 15 people dealing with stuff as rare or rarer on Arena right now.

Try again.

[Maiex]

Originally posted by Brother Alpha:

Originally posted by Maiex:

I've already roughly done the math for 2 seperate games in this forum that had happened in the same day, one my brother and one was me.. we both played around 5 games for them to happen. they were both sub 1% chance, i have one of the games clipped too if you'd like to see (the 0.12% that i talked about)

There are approximately 15 people dealing with stuff as rare or rarer on Arena right now.

Try again.

I think I've come to figure that out

[Brother Alpha]

Originally posted by Insomniac Jack:

Originally posted by mwesthoff:

I have you beat, I drew 12 lands in a 40 card draft deck that only had 17 lands in it. I had three lands in my opening hand and then preceded to draw 12 lands and one creature. 15 out of 17 lands on turn 13 from a 40 card deck.

Don't you just love it when that happens? That's just Arena reminding you that you're getting "tilted" and experiencing "variance", at least according to the rocket scientists on these forums.

Yes, that's how random chance works. In this case, something this rare is happening to 1 person right now and will happen about a few hundred times a day.

It's not that impressive.

Also, I love how you insult our intelligence, while we are the ones who able calculate the odds and you guys clearly can't do this.

[Maiex]

Originally posted by Brother Alpha:

Originally posted by Insomniac Jack:

Don't you just love it when that happens? That's just Arena reminding you that you're getting "tilted" and experiencing "variance", at least according to the rocket scientists on these forums.

Yes, that's how random chance works. In this case, something this rare is happening to 1 person right now and will happen about a few hundred times a day.

It's not that impressive.

Also, I love how you insult our intelligence, while we are the ones who able calculate the odds and you guys clearly can't do this.

Yes hitting a below 1% chance twice in 1 day, playing around 10 games, is completely normal odds, you are on purposely being ignorant for sake of arguement.. A sub 1% chance hitting everytime i play, usually just once, sometimes twice, but always atleast once, out of 5-10 games is very normal odds.. Get a grip old man lmao, do some math

[PJ]

Originally posted by Maiex:

Originally posted by PJ:

Yes, those talking points. You're basically a copypasta.

Also you just went through all 5 stages of grief in that post... so that's impressive.

care to back anything up like im doing? Or are you too shallow minded

Back it up in the same way you're doing. Okay here I go:

These things can happen, and you just got unlucky.