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I sort of see "In Water" and "Leave" as counterparts to one another.
The former is the "sad" or "bad" ending where James couldn't overcome his guilt.
The latter is the "hopeful" or "good" variation where he does.
Whichever is more "likely" is up to interpretation. I like both as possible endings.
The "Maria" ending I see as sort of an aside, or an in-between on its own, where James neither learns anything one way or the other, and instead potentially repeats the cycle he went through. (No, not a time loop, but just repeating the cycle he went through with Mary but now with the manifestation that is Maria, who was meant to test his devotion to Mary.)
And while Silent Hill 4 was divisive at the time compared to the main three, and has a bit of a repetitive ending and one frustrating aspect (don't want to spoil it), it's well worth playing. The story and characters are good, and some parts of the gameplay were as well.
James went to Silent Hill to kill himself after killing his wife because it was their special place and yes her body is in the car. But at some point, it being heavily implied when he was looking in the mirror at the start, that he forgot his reason for coming due to the influence of the town. In the OG SH2 "Mary's" letter slowly disappears as you progress through the game and so there wasn't any real letter, nor has it been 3 years. His bodies scattered through out the town is the town "reminding" him of his original purpose of coming in the first place.
But gotta love the town playing 4D chess with James through Maria.
Maria doesn't make sense because he went through all that just to what give in? I suppose the game is just a lesson in futility which would fit the theme of everyone else in the game... You know what I just convinced myself it's possible.
But considering leave is now the default ending or non-new game plus it's probably that as silly as that is.
The state of the PC port is so awful (and its price remains at $40 all these years later) that I wouldn't recommend it though, not unless you find an Xbox 360 or PlayStation 3 copy. The original PC releases of 3 or 4, if you can get your hands on them though, are easy enough to recommend. I wish they were available digitally on Steam (same for the original 2).
I never played anything released after Homecoming, but I've sometimes heard that Downpour was a "good, bad" one and wanted to try it eventually.
Thankfully there are mods to bring PC Homecoming closer or better (depends on how you feel about QTE) than the Xbox 360 version.
Silent Hill 4 is the easiest one to get a legal PC copy of since you can just grab it from GOG.
I remember having minimal issues with Homecoming personally (got it on Steam back in the day), but there were a plethora of them. Random crashes when alt+tabbing, resolution issues, map not lining up, sound only coming out of one side, and on and on. All those issues combined with the still-$40 price tag would make me hesitate to recommend it to someone passively interested, even if some fixes are available.
That's the funny thing. The success of this remake is going to have people go "what other Silent Hill games exist on Steam", see that, maybe try it, and be disappointed. I'm not sure I see Konami fixing it all these years later nor lowering the price, but it might slightly hurt their reputation if people buy it thinking it's just as good ecause this one is.
I cannot believe that James can carry on with his life as if nothing happen when he learns what killed his wife
In terms of Team Silent and the actual development, the most likely "true" ending is probably Leave or In Water (the rest, minus maybe the Dog ending - are very unlikely). Many of the people who worked on the original game consider In Water to be the most meaningful, but I suspect it's due to the romanticization of suicide in Japanese culture and not much more. Homecoming, originally at least, would have likely made the Leave ending canon by continuing the story of 2 with Laura in James' jacket in the way 3 continued the story of Heather Mason from 1.
Leave: Mary's wish fulfilled - James doesn't give up and takes care of Laura, a sort of stand-in for Mary (she's rude and impertinent like Mary in her final days but wanting to be loved underneath)
Clues to it not being the true ending: Well, they LEAVE Silent Hill and presumably are seen again at some point. There's nothing in the rest of the Silent Hill franchise indicating either James or Laura ever made it out. Devs seem to think it's less meaningful and the mood of the ending doesn't really fit with the game or its theme of rot, decay, water, and so on.
In Water: It's clearly the ending most hinted at in the actual game. Corpses of James litter the street and the levels of the game get more and more watery as you continue. With the remake, you can even see the corpse of Mary in the back seat. Devs prefer it and it's congruent with some of the influences on SH2 such as Kate Chopin's The Awakening (not talked about much in terms of SH lore for some reason, but the In Water ending, Lakeview Hotel scenes, and much of SH2 clearly come from this non-horror novel).
Clues to it not being the true ending: It's a bad ending - most of the other true Silent Hill endings aren't necessarily bad endings! It kind of defeats the purpose of the game - overcoming your feelings and remembering your past is all... to just end yourself? James is against the act of suicide and takes away Angela's knife for this very reason. Mary didn't want James to commit suicide, either.
Some more thoughts:
Leave: The Western/Christian ending. James forgives himself and redeems himself by adopting Laura. Forgiveness, happiness, and a road out of darkness are all possible. As cheery and optimistic as SH gets.
In Water: The Japanese/Seppuku (for those unaware, honor suicides esp. traditional ones are associated with water in Japan - see Tale of the Heike, Muneharu etc) ending. Recognizing that he's at fault and finally ready to be at rest with Mary, James guns it into Toluca Lake. By doing this, James atones and sets the world without Mary in balance by removing himself from it as well.
Even more simply:
Leave: Redemption (Good ending)
In Water: Atonement (Neutral ending)
Maria: Delusion (Loop ending)
Dog: Reality (Meta ending)
UFO: Connected (Final Fantasy 7 Remake style ending)
Rebirth: Evil (Bad ending)
There is no "canonical" ending as every ending has its own meaning. Some of them are more "spiritual" some others more "esoteric".
For me personally Leave is the end of the story, it is my "canon" ending as it makes the most sense according to the story and the fact that by design, both in the OG and the Remake it is the one that is most likely to happen.