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But thinks like the enemy expecting you to go to war (or they declaring war on you) and subsequent wars with the same nation (within a timeframe) lowers the chance to trigger one. You dont fall for the same trick twice ;-)
Also, I never managed to get the submarine suprise attack, but I also never invested much into SS as Japan.
And, you dont need alot of enemy ships to trigger one. I had an carrier force attack on Vladivostok where I sunk 1 BC and the scenario was over, no ships left.
bevore 1925: night attack (with DD force)
between 1925 and 1935 submarine sneack attack
after 1935: carrier force
I guess if you do not meet the requirements (lacking of SS or CV) it doesnt trigger.
And just quoting the manual:
Note: that a surprise attack is not a sure thing. There is a basic chance of 80% for a
surprise attack to take place. This is reduced considerably in subsequent wars with the
same nation (they are not so stupid that they fall for the same trick again). Also, there
might not be suitable enemy ships to target in a location within reach. In such cases, you
will be informed that there was no opportunity for a surprise attack.
Note: Ships in reserve or mothballed status might be included as defending ships
in a surprise attack, even though they will otherwise not take part in battles. This is
to make them vulnerable, and make it impossible for the player to ‘hide’ ships from
surprise attacks by putting them in reserve