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If you got 400 E.G.O shards of the sinner, after halving you will end up with 200.
200 shards is 200 threads, and if you get 27 threads per day through skipped lux, you can get that thread in roughly 7 days
But to get 200 shards you need roughly 100 boxes, and to get 100 boxes you need 3 weeks, since you get roughly 30 boxes per week.
With crates it's even worse. As en example I got 1200 crates, and if I let half of them die, I get roughly 1200 threads. To get 1200 threads you need half an month, but to get 600 crates you lost, you need 5 month.
The worst thing is, is that with new thread lux, those numbers will become even more distant, so you definitely SHOULDN'T keep an excess of boxes/E.G.O shards while going through seasons, because in that case, you will lost much more, than halving gives you.
If there's anything to buy with them, do it now. Hoard your Lunacy (and Tickets) and don't spend it, spend Boxes instead. Or that seems like the logical stance to take henceforth if anything releases at this stage before the next "season". (Or if you have stuff left in the Dispenser to buy.)
Sure, you can keep it all and go through the halving, you're not losing anything per se (Unless you need shards more than thread). The way I see it, any resources earned now will get easier to earn as the game progresses --- any currency you keep isn't gaining any value as time goes on.
And after that... I dunno. Maybe look at what IDs I'll want to UT4, and ensure I have 100 of each character so I can still UT4 after season 3 hits.
No need to overthink it really, if you can get that many boxes/shards you'll be able to get just as many next season. If you like something, use it. Otherwise, save it. So far they're generous enough that it's possible to get practically all the nice IDs without having to pay for anything.
But if you have all the meta stuff, I would just let it rollover... 1k -> 500 boxes will let you shard like 3 ids/egos right out of the gate, pretty good.
If you care about collection: Limited Event ID or EGO > EGOs > IDs.
Spending shard for uptie 4 is mostly a question if you want to play with that IDs/EGOs and if you want to build a team around it. There is not point of uptie 4 something you don't plan to use outside of some stupid challenge or simping reason. Of course there are IDs and EGO that aren't worthy to uptie 4 but you can simply ignore them for now.
While halving the shards for thread is painful and it's a bad trade as free2play, it's not a painful as salving resources to gacha for something that you don't get at end.