-wrong- 99.9% coded limit of 4 / 10 gold pulls -

[Fluff]

Just info for whoever is curious.

Based on over 20000 multipulls (multipull is a ten pull, 1300 cost) from rerolls, it's very most likely coded to be impossible to get 5+ gold pulls in a single multipull. Noone got 5+/10 neither in discord community or reddit.

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https://imgur.com/0DSu93b

Here we go, case closed, happy to be wrong on this one!

[Mastema]

The only "lucky as ♥♥♥♥" pull i got was 2 EGOS in same 10 pull.

[Reptiloid]

Maybe. The luckiest pull I've had is 2 000 chars and a lantern. But it was on Greg's banner, so his 000 had kind of a decent chance anyway.

[carni]

There is a 0.042 chance of getting an 000 or EGO in every roll, meaning you have 0.33517 chance of getting at least one. But every 000 or EGO roll you add, the probability of getting that amount decreases drastically. You have less than a percent chance of getting 3 gold pulls in a ten roll, and 0.00054 of getting 4 or more, but among 20000 pulls that's still a very likely occurrence. However, once you start talking about getting 5 or more in a 10pull, the probability is suddenly drops to 0.00003, which is VERY LOW.
Even if you roll for 20000 times, you only have 0.45119 (45%) of encountering it once or more. That's basically a coinflip. You achieve a 90% probability of encountering it at around 80000 rolls, at which point we can start talking about hardcaps on goldpulls.

[Fluff]

Origineel geplaatst door caengort:

People rolled over 100k times combined long ago, noone got it. That's why 99,9% sure. 100% can only be if confirmed by showing dev code.

[carni]

Origineel geplaatst door Tusk_Luv:

Origineel geplaatst door caengort:

People rolled over 100k times combined long ago, noone got it. That's why 99,9% sure. 100% can only be if confirmed by showing dev code.

Well, do you have actual stats for this? Like, who counts?

[carni]

And why would you even implement a limit like this. It's an event which will happen once every 400000 rolls, it's not like it'll ruin the economy.

[Fluff]

Origineel geplaatst door caengort:

Well, do you have actual stats for this? Like, who counts?

I don't see where you'r going with it or your point. I wrote you the info I got, my number of pulls + other people' results, ignore it, believe, disbelieve or do whatever you want with it, it give me nothing and I don't really care, this topic is just for curiousity sake for those who interested. You can prove it's wrong at this by showing 5+ pull or dev code, though otheriwise statistically it's correct untill then.

Origineel geplaatst door caengort:

And why would you even implement a limit like this

A lot of gachas have limit.

[carni]

Origineel geplaatst door Tusk_Luv:

I don't see where you'r going with it or your point. I wrote you the info I got, my number of pulls + other people' results, ignore it, believe, disbelive or do whatever you want with it, this topic is just for curiousity sake for those who interested. You can prove it's wrong at this by showing 5+ pull or dev code, otheriwise statistically it's correct untill then.

That's because you can't just say "people pulled for 100000 times, posted their results on discord/reddit(which has like 10k people total". You have to have a basis to make a statement, and you're basis is "it was revealed to me on discord".

[Fluff]

Origineel geplaatst door caengort:

K

[Taihou]

I agree with caengort, these kind of claims normally come accompanied by some excel (usually) list of the results per each multipull. Otherwise, nothing would stop me from saying I got a 10x 000 pull in a multipull and my source is "Trust me bro".

It'd feel weird to implement such a rare limitation, if anything I'd animate some confetti on the pull because damn that'd be amazing.

[Fluff]

Origineel geplaatst door Taihou:

10x 000 pull in a multipull and my source is "Trust me bro".

Your source would be a screenshot like tons of people did witth 4x and non with 5x instead of clown fiesta. I'm out of conversation with kids (why kids? - 'view post history - see 'dumbass' and other ♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥ in many caengort posts over past days even about nothing - close post history) though that aim for nothing but attention argueing, past that age long ago. Take info like you want, detailed info and examples are in discord though.

Origineel geplaatst door Taihou:

It'd feel weird to implement such a rare limitation, if anything I'd animate some confetti on the pull because damn that'd be amazing.

Learn gacha market then. Recent popular games like PtN has the same one.

I gave you short info, again, believe or not I don't care. Want spreadsheet - jump in discord roll channel and view topic over previous 5 days. People rerolling x4 x5 multiwindow instances over 50 hours, a reroll takes near 3-5 minutes. Count yourself.

[Sol's Soul]

I ain't good at math, so my calculations may be wrong
-But let's be extremely generous and say that it is a 4% chance for a pull to be a 000 Identity (You can find the exact odds in the probability section, but for the sake of argument I am increasing said odds)

The odds of landing 4 of said pulls in one 10-pull would be (0.04^4)*100, so.. 0.000256% if I am correct
This percentage would probably be close to the supposed source you have of the amount of 4/10 pulls out of 20000

Like Caengort stated, this percentage drastically drops the moment you are aiming for 5/10 pulls or more

While this is not how probability works, for a 5/10 pull to happen once, on average it'd take around 100k deca-pulls

For 6/10 this number would be around 2.5 million deca-pulls
And again, this is all with the generous 4% chance, which is roughly 1.1% higher than the actual percentage; of course thing would change a bit if we include EGO with the 000 Identities, but it would still be incredibly unlikely

Who knows there may be a "lock" like you say there is
-but at the same time everyone pulling can also just not have been lucky enough for it to have happened yet

Saying with 99.9% certainty that there is one of those locks is practically foolish, for someone who in their review states that they "reconsider the sanity and IQ of Project Moon fans" this is an awfully "low iq" thing to go around and state
Not that IQ measures smartness, even if you have a high IQ I would still argue that this is one of the less smart things I've read today

[Fluff]

Origineel geplaatst door Sol's Soul:

Your are talking about worst luck probability that's first in all your examples.
Second - learn to read and reread messages. 20k are my pulls, not all people. You can use your'super high IQ' to assume that people pulled 'a bit more' than that combined and none got 5+/10.

Thanks for showing me that my review is correct with your sanity and IQ. You probably consider positive review with a content of "LETS GOOO" "LIMBUS SWEEP" highly intellectual. Thank for proving I am correct once again.

[khargal]

So ehh, what do you expect people doing with your message? Stop rerolling attempts? Cry and whine about unfair?

[Sol's Soul]

Allow me to use your words here;

Origineel geplaatst door Tusk_Luv:

learn to read and reread messages.

Never once stated I have an high IQ myself

But okay, rereading your messages


"Based on over 20000 multipulls-"
Does not specifically state yours, and while it doesn't state everyone's pulls, one could easily assume that these are a total of pulls from a group of people, not from everyone playing

"People rolled over 100k times combined long ago, noone got it. That's why 99,9% sure. 100% can only be if confirmed by showing dev code."
This still would be under-odds, and while it is entirely possible for it to drop before that, it is far from the "worst luck probability" you say I am talking about
Speaking off that one actually, worst luck would mean it never happens

Say you flip a coin 3 times, very fitting I know, saying it'd be a 12.5% chance for it to land on heads all 3 of those times would not be a "worst luck probabilty", it'd be the average
That's essentially what the probabilities I listed are, averages
It can happen sooner, it can happen later, but the 12.5% is the expected average
If one were to record 3 flips for let's say.. a million times, you'd see that the percentage of it landing on heads 3 times in a row would be very close to 12.5%

Also you were talking about a spreadsheet, but from what I can tell I cannot find it in the ProjectMoon Community Hub Discord server, assuming it is there anyway
I may have missed it, and that is indeed a possible.. probability, but you could also easily just help the people wanting said source to find it.

Oh and while you are reading this, try to be a bit nicer to others in the future
People would probably be happier to talk to you if you didn't insult others so often when they engage with your discussion
I got things I need to do now, but if you want I can reread more of your messages like you told me to do once I am no longer busy, though I can already say that it most likely wouldn't change a thing