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I think your estimation is pretty realistic unless UWE is further along that I expect. However, don't be surprised if it takes alot longer. That seems to be a growing trend in the Early Access program.
For full release, we're looking at 2028-2030. I've stopped playing Early Access games so I'm ignoring this for 3 years.
As we haven't had any further communication, I think it's most likely going to be the second quarter now. I would rather them take their time and get the game right, than rush to get something out quickly.
Hoping for a game similar to subnautica 1, big and little subs, customisation of character, same feel of technology, big map, great story, scary feeling of a large unknown ocean, lots of wildlife and diverse environments, some sort of quick portal system maybe and all previous tech we have in the other games.