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Maybe if you consistently used your Flagellant for Endure and needed to "vent" the Stress out as you take it on...
If you don't have a reliable emergency stress heal in your team via a skill or items, then your team is already gambling against RNG.
That's a pretty good list.
The Jinx is great on a tanks, it can really disrupt repeat attackers.
Cosmic Hater is a strange one because it does nothing against most enemies... but it's excellent against the enemies that matter the most (Cultists, Shamblers and Mountain Bosses), so I too think it's a fine option.
Bloodthirsty, despite its drawback, is amazing. It's hard to argue about a straight-up +30% DMG buff.
Not a huge fan of Lethal Feint because you shouldn't actually miss that often. But crit tokens are nice.
Deadly is a tough one. Less reliable than the straight-up damage from Bloodthirsty, and less damage increase overall. But it's decent value for damage-dealers with large damage ranges, it benefits DOTs by increasing piercing/duration on a crit where Bloodthirsty wouldn't do as much for this type of attack, and crits do have side benefits such as occasionally reducing Stress.
Edit: I should add Breacher and Iron Constitution to the list.
I'm having a really hard time deciding between Bloodthirsty and Deadly for my beloved Grave Robber. Most of her damage is raw, and would benefit greatly and reliably from Bloodthirsty. But one of her paths (admittedly one of the least interesting ones) would benefit way more from +CRIT than +DMG, she has large damage ranges on many of her abilities, and it would greatly reduce the amount of times that she wastes a Combo by not critting. Mathematically I know Bloodthirsty is better, not to mention way more reliable, but Deadly is still immensely appealing.
I would say Deadly is better just because a badly timed vulnerable token is a potential liability you don't need. In aggregate, CRIT is basically also extra damage and 15% is a ton. Also does Bloodthirsty force any node actions? I know Daredevil once made fighting an unscouted Shambler's Altar my only option only for it to be Ordained and Elite which ended my run on the spot.
Generally, I prefer to minimize opportunities for those kinds of statistical inevitabilities.
I don't recall ever seeing a dialogue option forced by Bloodthirsty, but I may not have noticed.
It's just... +30% DMG 100% of the time is way, way, way better than roughly +80% DMG 15% of the time, you know? Both from raw value and from the reliability standpoint. Not to mention all your CRIT chance modifiers becomes completely worthless whenever you have a CRIT token, which is why I'd never lock Deadly on, say, a Highwayman.
But you're right, the Vulnerability should not be underestimated. In general, if something in the game offers obscene benefits with an occasional drawback, you should not accept that option. That's how the game kills you.
It's just hard to take a Quirk that says "85% chance to do absolutely nothing".
I'd say take Blodthirsty if you play Nightsworn path and nothing else. No other path will really benefit from it. Venomdrop loves flashing daggers (which do near-zero damage anyway); and Deadeye often throws darts into blocks (to break through blocks while dealing blight).
Deadly is immensely useful for all paths.
- Deadeye gets guaranteed crits on marked enemies with Thrown Dagger and 80% crit on marked with Poison Darts
- Nightsworn gets 45% crit on Lunge, which turns into 95% with Silent Treatment equipped
- Venomdrop gets more reliable crits and therefore longer blight duration
It's not all about damage. Crits increase blight duration and reduce stress for GR and her team. Besides, damage doesn't matter when you hit into a block.
It doesn't work like that though. If you have a 65% chance to crit, it's chancy as hell. Turn it into 80% and you get yourself a *very* reliable crit chance.
The thing is, it only does anything if the roll would have been 66 to 80. If the roll would have been 1 to 65 it would have crit anyway so the Quirk does nothing, and if the roll is 81+ it's still not going to crit so the Quirk still does nothing. Only if you roll 66 to 80 does it actually change it from a hit to a crit, and that only happens 15% of the time. Hence, 85% of the time, Deadly does literally nothing.
I get what you're saying though. If you're going to consume a Combo token, not critting feels awful. If you can increase your crit chance from 80% (Mastered Thrown Dagger on a Combo target) to 95%, it will happen four times less often (1 in 20 instead of 4 in 20). With the Deadeye's additional crit chance on Thrown Dagger it completely eliminates the possibility that you'll waste the Combo token.
Mathematically speaking, with pure damage skills, Bloodthirsty will increase your damage way way way way way way way more than Deadly, and do so in a more reliable manner, and let you take advantage of CRIT tokens (like those from The Blood) much better. I genuinely think it's overall overwhelmingly better than Deadly.
It's just those other things. Bloodthirsty does very little for DOT-applying abilities, it does give you Vulnerable on occasion, and you'll waste Combo tokens more often than if you take Deadly.
I'm leaning towards Deadly because an entire Path doesn't benefit much from Bloodthirsty, and if I play long enough the Vulnerable will kill Audrey eventually. This is how the game gets you to kill yourself, it offers you large benefits that will entice you to gamble, and if you gamble often enough, you're certain to eventually get a bad enough string of luck that you'll fail.
While true, it's still a major factor when you decide if it's worth it to consume a combo token. With 65% every third attack will not crit. With 80% chance every fifth attack will not crit.
The math is different for Deadeye path. Deadeye with Deadly gets guaranteed 100% to crit on Thrown Dagger. The game even shows you crit damage when you select Thrown Dagger and hover over the target. As if you had a crit token.
If you have means to drop crit tokens on GR; have Nightsworn path and stealth; attacking targets that don't have block tokens; have your GR as the main damage dealer; don't care about Vulnerable tokens on one of the lowest-hp characters in the game; never play Venomdrop path - yeah, maybe Bloodthirsty is worth a consideration.
Deadly is way more versatile and offers more utility than just damage dealing. Blight duration is huge for Sepsis and Cause of Death. Stress heal from crits is huge for any team, but especially teams without stress healers. Librarians's trophy makes crits even more relevant, as well as several trinkets. And every single GR path benefits from Deadly.
I'd say it's overwhelmingly better than Bloodthirsty.
A 5% HP guaranteed heal on round start is definitely worth a lock.
It's certainly not terrible, it's just... if your character has 40 HP, that's a 2 HP heal. You'd most likely prevent way more damage than that by killing your opponents faster.
If you like risky plays and often find yourself with characters on Death's Door, however, this could take them off of it provided they are put on Death's Door relatively late in a round.
Think of it as a permanent HoT, it's definitely worth keeping, especially on Guards + Taunts + Squishies, but it's a perma lock on *everyone* since you don't need to play risky to get Crit'd down to Death's Door by bad RNG, plus, healing in this game is limited.
I think it's a big risk. You cripple your offensive power by not having Bloodthirsty and whatnot, the enemies get many extra attacks on you because you're not killing them as quickly, and in the end you'll be getting on Death's Door way more often.
In general, in video games, investing in failure is not ideal.
I just got Bloodthirsty on a HWM, and I can already tell the vulnerable tokens are a big problem. +50% damage received is no joke, and If you're a little unlucky in a longer fight, they stack. Basically necessitates a MAA or Maniac Flag. In the same run he got it, he was the only one put on DD against the Chains of all things. With a regular torch.
I get the impression this WILL eventually kill him when I roll snake eyes at some point.
Also running survivability is not "investing in failure". It's insurance. Especially on Stygian, you will eventually get crit to DD and being able to heal off DD without even committing a move is pretty powerful on its own. And in a longer Mountain fight, that small heal can add up higher than Iron Constitution. Instant lock IMO.