XG completely out of balance

[daveyfunk]

This is after the latest patch, but I've had games where the XG just doesn't make sense and been missing more penalties than I should

(I'm Spurs)

West Brom 1 - 2 Spurs
WB XG 0.48 from 6 shots
Spurs XG 2.59 from 17 shots
XG 5 times difference

Antwerp 2 - 3 Spurs
Ant 0.06 from 2 shots
Spurs 3.61 from 23 shots
XG 60 times difference

Spurs 1 - 1 Aston Villa
Spurs 3.61 from 19 shots
Villa 0.55 from 7 shots
XG 6 times difference

[HUNT3R]

How many shots in the last game?

If you take the penalties out, what does the xG look like then?

How many of the shots are blocked shots? Blocked shots can indicate a failure to create decent space for a shot.

[daveyfunk]

Originally posted by HUNT3R:

How many shots in the last game?

If you take the penalties out, what does the xG look like then?

How many of the shots are blocked shots? Blocked shots can indicate a failure to create decent space for a shot.

Sorry, I've edited the first post to include shots in last game and it was actually against Aston Villa...

So to add some extra detail to the stats above...

West Brom 1 - 2 Spurs
WB XG 0.48 from 6 shots, 3 on target, 0 clear cut
Spurs XG 2.59 from 17 shots, 6 on target, 2 clear cut chances (1 pen scored)
XG 5 times difference

Antwerp 2 - 3 Spurs
Ant 0.06 from 2 shots, 2 on target, 0 CCC
Spurs 3.61 from 23 shots, 10 on target, 4 CCC
XG 60 times difference

Spurs 1 - 1 Aston Villa
Spurs 3.61 from 19 shots, 9 on target, 3 CCC (1 pen missed)
Villa 0.55 from 7 shots, 3 on target, 0 CCC
XG 6 times difference

Makes it look even more ridiculous when the opposition have created no CCC and the XG is miles apart.

The total stats are;

Spurs 6 - 4 opposition
Spurs 9.87, 25 on target, 9 CCC
opp 1.09, 8 on target, 0 CCC

How does that even add up to the games being remotely close?!!! haha

I mean, the opposition have converted 50% of the shots on target and XG would suggest really poor quality chances. I've converted under 25% of the shots on target with well over a 9 times XG

Not to mention that my team is world class with Costa in goal, defence of regen at DC (best in the world at the time of the game), Gvardiol and Skriniar, Udogie LWB, Timber RWB, Tonali DMC, Gavi CM, Kulusevski RW, Endrick and Sesko up front

[zeeb]

xG is an unreliable statistic considering the nature of it. It can give you a hint, but it is not conclusive.
Don't rely on it. You can however use it as a vague measurement, but do so responsibly.

An xG of 999999 doesn't mean anything if your guys aren't feeling up to the task.

[The Hare]

Check out the Chelsea vs Villa stars IRL from yesterday they got fully FMD. It does happen IRL

[HUNT3R]

Originally posted by daveyfunk:

How does that even add up to the games being remotely close?!!! haha

That's why I asked the questions (of which 1 important one wasn't answered) as you'd need to look deeper into it, if it's happening consistently. If it's not happening consistently, ie you've had 3 matches over the course of a season that didn't go according to plan/was an upset, then it's not that strange.

[daveyfunk]

Originally posted by The Hare:

Check out the Chelsea vs Villa stars IRL from yesterday they got fully FMD. It does happen IRL

Of course it happens in real life, but this is a game that is based around numbers in attributes. For this to happen in a game means it's programmed in and so doesn't matter on tactics or anything else because this WILL happen.

Makes it incredibly frustrating when you put in hrs into getting the best team, tactics to how you want them for no benefit because the game has this built into it and you can't prevent it.

[Konri]

Originally posted by The Hare:

Check out the Chelsea vs Villa stars IRL from yesterday they got fully FMD. It does happen IRL

check out the other matches of the last few rounds.
see how many such situations there were and how many there are in fm 23
At my place, in 5 out of 6 matches in a round, the team with the lower xg won.

[zeeb]

Originally posted by daveyfunk:

Originally posted by The Hare:

Check out the Chelsea vs Villa stars IRL from yesterday they got fully FMD. It does happen IRL

Of course it happens in real life, but this is a game that is based around numbers in attributes. For this to happen in a game means it's programmed in and so doesn't matter on tactics or anything else because this WILL happen.

Makes it incredibly frustrating when you put in hrs into getting the best team, tactics to how you want them for no benefit because the game has this built into it and you can't prevent it.

What you do when you gather good players etc in this game is lower the risk of losing, you can't mitigate it 100%. A simulation can only take it so far.

[Shaman King]

i dont know guys maybe its my problem i think it is but i feel exhausted and bored playing this version of the game i just cant force myself to play anymore. I have no idea why... So im back to old versions. I dont know every tactic i make or use just does not cut it no matter what i do. I can take PSG and dont lose 50 in a row then take something from EPL like Newcastle and just dont make results. I have no idea what is the problem.
This version of fm dont even bring me the satisfaction of winning something it feels really random and whatever, maybe its just me i dont know. Im back to fm 13

[Garuda One]

Originally posted by vladpony:

i dont know guys maybe its my problem i think it is but i feel exhausted and bored playing this version of the game i just cant force myself to play anymore. I have no idea why... So im back to old versions. I dont know every tactic i make or use just does not cut it no matter what i do. I can take PSG and dont lose 50 in a row then take something from EPL like Newcastle and just dont make results. I have no idea what is the problem.
This version of fm dont even bring me the satisfaction of winning something it feels really random and whatever, maybe its just me i dont know. Im back to fm 13

I'd argue the EPL is way more competitive overall than the French top flight, just as an aside. I think it's way easier to completely dominate as PSG in the game versus something like Newcastle.

[Shaman King]

Originally posted by Garuda One:

Originally posted by vladpony:

i dont know guys maybe its my problem i think it is but i feel exhausted and bored playing this version of the game i just cant force myself to play anymore. I have no idea why... So im back to old versions. I dont know every tactic i make or use just does not cut it no matter what i do. I can take PSG and dont lose 50 in a row then take something from EPL like Newcastle and just dont make results. I have no idea what is the problem.
This version of fm dont even bring me the satisfaction of winning something it feels really random and whatever, maybe its just me i dont know. Im back to fm 13

I'd argue the EPL is way more competitive overall than the French top flight, just as an aside. I think it's way easier to completely dominate as PSG in the game versus something like Newcastle.

The problem is i have no idea if the tactic is somewhat good, or not say good lets say working in this game, until i try it for multiple seasons. That means hours and hours of gameplay.
Then i can say this tactic is working or this is not good for this team etc. In old fm like 13 i just made tactic with sliders and i instantly knew if its good or where i need to improve it.
Now i can take a winning tactic to other team and it just underperform for no reason.
Also i dont see the little things that i can improve the tactic in this match engine. Its too confusing. Honestly i have like 100+ tactics already if i count from fm 19 to fm 23 that are worth its salt
I just mean i take my best tactics from fm 22 to fm 23 and the results are random at best even tho they dominated in fm 22 or do i need to remade it from scratch for fm 23 version?

[Garuda One]

Originally posted by vladpony:

Originally posted by Garuda One:

I'd argue the EPL is way more competitive overall than the French top flight, just as an aside. I think it's way easier to completely dominate as PSG in the game versus something like Newcastle.

The problem is i have no idea if the tactic is somewhat good, or not say good lets say working in this game, until i try it for multiple seasons. That means hours and hours of gameplay.
Then i can say this tactic is working or this is not good for this team etc. In old fm like 13 i just made tactic with sliders and i instantly knew if its good or where i need to improve it.
Now i can take a winning tactic to other team and it just underperform for no reason.
Also i dont see the little things that i can improve the tactic in this match engine. Its too confusing. Honestly i have like 100+ tactics already if i count from fm 19 to fm 23 that are worth its salt
I just mean i take my best tactics from fm 22 to fm 23 and the results are random at best even tho they dominated in fm 22 or do i need to remade it from scratch for fm 23 version?

I disagree in a sense with how tactic balancing works right now. Not the ME, but tactics specifically. This is the best version I've played as far as how open it is with tactic choices. I've been able to utilize three different tactics that are totally different with decent success. What I love about this year is that I feel like your line up matters so much more.

Plug and play tactics from the past aren't as easily reliable as before, in my experience. This year you really have to analyze your first team and make a tactic that plays into their strengths rather than just slapping any 11 players in and knowing it will work. If you have terrible passers/playmakers playing a controlled possession system will fail. Weak physicals? Pressing system will ultimately fall apart if you don't adjust every game.

I'm actually a huge fan of the amount of thought and nuance required for tactic/system building. Specifically in the higher divisions. I think it kinda sucks if you can just plug any tactic into any team and immediately find success without adjusting your roster to find players who are suited for what you're trying to do.