Why are the stress odds so unfair ?

[Magnum180]

I don't understand how the odds of this game works, at the beginning of the game i drew like 2 stress cards at once with only 5% stress, and i almost lost to Corsac because i draw like 5 stress cards at 23%, it's literally worse than XCom.

I already have no luck in general, i get all my Close Deal card at the begining and i can never drop the ingredients i need (it's not like it's already hard enough to know in which location you have to send the heroes for something you want).

And now i have to make 3 Tier 4 potions ( more like tier 5 if i want to win ) until the next competion, i think i got myself stuck in the third week.

[KARMA]

I was just as perturbed as you when i drew stress cards at 2% just did not make any sense,i wish i had the same odds with my lotto tickets 8).

[TripSin]

The stress odds aren't as unfair as you think they are. A lot of people just don't properly understand how statistics, probability, and randomness work. Many people will incorrectly expect randomness to work out in certain ways. And many people aren't properly cognizant of the fact that something that is unlikely to happen, can still happen and can happen more often than they would expect it to happen by chance.

[MozarteanChaos]

it's because it's the chance for any given card drawn to be a stress card - so this is rolled for every card you draw in a turn while you're stressed. combine this with how a lot of people's intuitive understanding of probability works doesn't match how it actually works - like how tripsin said - and it can often feel much less fair than it actually is, because we expect it to work like "[X]% of your cards will be stress cards", not "each card you draw has an [X]% chance to become a stress card".
in reality, if you have ~25% stress, that is a one in four chance for any card you draw to be a stress card, which means you're very likely to draw multiple of 'em in a turn.
even at 5%, you're not going to dodge that one in twenty chance for every card every time - sometimes you're just gonna get unlucky.

(plus, the times you get unlucky will stick in your head much easier than the times you don't, so it can seem like you're much less lucky than you actually are)

[Chimney Imp]

The odds are the odds. If you have a 2% chance to draw a stress card and you draw a stress card, the odds aren't wrong, you just got unlucky. If a 2% chance to draw a stress card meant you never drew a stress card, it wouldn't be 2%, now would it?
If you want to never draw stress, focus on shields, reinforcement, and taking as few turns as possible (so customers have fewer chances to stress you out). Or Lean In to it.

[RustIHT]

Originally posted by TripSin:

The stress odds aren't as unfair as you think they are. A lot of people just don't properly understand how statistics, probability, and randomness work. Many people will incorrectly expect randomness to work out in certain ways. And many people aren't properly cognizant of the fact that something that is unlikely to happen, can still happen and can happen more often than they would expect it to happen by chance.

this would all be solved if people simply played more XCOM

[Arani]

Originally posted by RustIHT:

this would all be solved if people simply played more XCOM

I'm not sure that's the case here. XCom always seemed very fair in its estimates. A 95% chance to hit, say, would overwhelmingly likely result in a hit. Now sure, one attack with a 5% chance to miss, is not the same as drawing 4 cards with a 5% chance each for a stress card, resulting in 18.5% chance to get at least one stress card. But the frequency of pulling stress cards in Potionomics with even 1-3% stress is *really* high. I'm not sure stress works the way we think it does, it almost feels like there's a 5% base chance, that only gets added if you have any stress at all.

In any case, stress isn't a problem once you get Regulated Breathing from Saffron. The description of the card is a bit ambiguous, as it says "Lasts until the end of the current haggling session." What this means is that it lasts through all the customers you handle in a 2h period of opening your store. Basically once you've stacked 4+ of those you lose so much stress each turn you'll stay at 0 without even trying. I routinely sell my potions to over a dozen customers in one go with that, making way more money than you get with the vending machine. :>

[chesul]

Originally posted by Arani:

Originally posted by RustIHT:

this would all be solved if people simply played more XCOM

I'm not sure that's the case here. XCom always seemed very fair in its estimates. A 95% chance to hit, say, would overwhelmingly likely result in a hit. Now sure, one attack with a 5% chance to miss, is not the same as drawing 4 cards with a 5% chance each for a stress card, resulting in 18.5% chance to get at least one stress card. But the frequency of pulling stress cards in Potionomics with even 1-3% stress is *really* high. I'm not sure stress works the way we think it does, it almost feels like there's a 5% base chance, that only gets added if you have any stress at all.:>

Xcom literally cheats unless you're on the max difficulty. every missed shot invisibly increases the odds on the next shot until you hit. so you'll never get runs of 4+ misses on 95% shots in Xcom unless you're on Legend, but as far as I can tell, this game doesn't have that since there's only one difficulty, and remember that if you have 1-3% stress over multiple turns you're drawing 8+ cards with it, usually a lot more. so yes, you're actually up near the 15%+ chance to hit a stress card during a haggling session.

[oeso0621]

The biggest problem with this game's stress mechanic is that your health or damage meter is the probability to hurt yourself. Having high stress will give you more stress card, and stronger stress card that gives more stress.

It is difficult to go 0 to 10% unless you are doing it deliberately, but 20 to 40 is super easy because there are so many cards that will kill you in your hand.

Did you know, when you are above 20% stress, you get more stress giving cards? Such as "give 2% stress" or "give 2x stress for a turn debuff and give 1% stress" instead of just 1%?

Dis you know, when you are above 40% stress, your card will out right kill you with 6 to 8% per card?

In reality, 30~40% is practically a game over. You can't haggle. This seems quite... deceptive towards to players. If stress cards are something that had cost to negate in the hand, or they are just a dead weight, it would be fine, but the game chose the exponential spiral of death by design.


I feel like it should have dealt it like in the game Monster Train, instead of chance to draw stress card, more stress should put more penalty cards in your deck that does nothing, or that hurts you but you can pay the cost to negate. And those can not be removed from the deck unless you remove stress.

But right now? Shaffron's stress management is busted and Luna's stress scaling cards are unusable.

[Magnum180]

So i read everything and everyone seems to aggree... i Really have to date Saffron to play the game without much difficulty ? I was trying to date Muktuk only because i like this character and his cards are quit good to raise the interest. But if i have to date someone i don't want because it's "meta" isn't it completly ♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥ ?

[oeso0621]

No?... Muktuk is great. Just avoid having any stress. That will do. You can always opt out of haggling, unless its the boss fight.

Unless you are trying to befriend every single person to the max, do whatever you want.

[Magnum180]

ok i see

[Ked]

Once you get Saffron lv 8 or 7 card (dont remember exactly) you get stackable stress removal at the start of every turn. With that card you dont need shields anymore.

[MozarteanChaos]

Originally posted by Magnum180:

So i read everything and everyone seems to aggree... i Really have to date Saffron to play the game without much difficulty ? I was trying to date Muktuk only because i like this character and his cards are quit good to raise the interest. But if i have to date someone i don't want because it's "meta" isn't it completly ♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥ ?

you don't have to date her, but befriending either her or mint is extremely useful for managing or preventing stress buildup, respectively.

[Polylog]

Just close deals early if you are about to get more than 1 or 2 stress that turn. Maybe take 3 or 4 if you have stress reducing cards in your deck, never more. You can win all competitions without haggling at all.

[parent child bowl]

The game doesn't force you to date anyone. If you don't want to play a certain character's cards you don't even have to befriend them.

I don't play any stress preventing or stress reducing cards and I don't have stress issues. You just have to know when you should just close the deal.