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The last 2 guns don't show up until you're close to endgame.
Specifically, they drop at the Glacial Area. They are the Sticky Bomb Gun and the Ice Gun. The Glacial Area not Glacial Passage.
Edit: By they I mean the orange and yellow weapon level up cards.
I'm guessing they start dropping less because the loot table gets more crowded as you unlock more guns. At the start, I think only the Tranq Pistol and Triple Axel will drop, plus the harpoon tip (and I don't think flame, tranq, or lightning shows up at the start), so there's about a 15-20% chance of an upgrade kit rolling. At the end of the game, you have six different harpoon tips plus eight guns. That means the upgrade kit only has a 6.6% chance of dropping.
Assuming all items are weighted equally, of course.
Yeah you just gotta pray to RNGsus every time you open a weapon crate for those and hope you get lucky.