So lets see how this might be doing overall.

[goldenvoidknight]

I am going to include some VERY basic math so we don't have pedantic arguments over the numbers.

Ok so lets just get a rough idea based on steam player count how much money they may have made opening weekend so far. I am going to give them a huge benefit of the doubt here just to prove the point. From looking online the estimated amount that it cost to make the game is 80-250 million and this is before the marketing spend. Marketing is another 50%-100% more money. They started working on this game in 2015 so give or take 9 years. I would hedge my bets the cost was on the higher end of the spectrum.

Now here is some basic math assuming sales are only 3 times more then the peak player count. (The count has gone up little bit so this is a little low but point stands)

73,879(Peak Players) x 3 = 221,637(Estimated Total Sales)
221,637(Estimated Total Sales) x 79.99(Max Cost) = 17,728,743.63(Max Total Revenue)
17,728,743.63(Max Total Revenue) x 3 = 53,186,230.89(Max Total Revenue All Platforms)

So with these estimates they would only have made just under 18 million. To a player that may sound like a lot but to a company like EA that's pocket change. If we assume they made equal sales across all platforms you are looking at just over 53 million. This is still less then the lowest estimate of the cost to produce it. The long tail on the game may eventually break even but its not shaping up to be the blockbuster they were probably looking for.

Now lets edge the earnings higher even still. At a 10 times more then peak player count.

73,879(Peak Players) x 10 = 738,790(Estimated Total Sales)
738,790(Estimated Total Sales) x 79.99 = 59,095,812.10(Max Total Revenue)
59,095,812.10(Max Total Revenue) x 3 = 177,287,436.30(Max Total Revenue All Platforms)

With these numbers its doing much better but still not what seems to be the blockbuster they would want. It is above the lower end of the cost range but not up to the higher end. Again this is ignoring the marketing cost which for this level of game is probably not on the cheap end. This is a major AAA legacy title they would want to do a big spend on to get as many people in the door as possible. I mean just look at the push for "A return to form" (not in any way saying collusion just saying that is the popular narrative) that is the prime example of what they want to hear its a bring in new player and reinvigorate the old players.

We are talking about a total cost of anywhere 120 million to 500 million total spend by EA to get this game out the door. The more money they make opening weekend before sales come into play lowering their take home is of the utmost importance. All of these estimates also do not take into account the store front cut which is 30% on both PSN and Xbox and starts at 30% on Steam going as low as 20% based on the total amount of earning the game has made. So again using the most favorable percentages that means EA is bringing home 39 million on the low end and 130 million on the high end.

30 + 30 + 20 = 26.67%
Times 3 Earnings: 53,186,230.89 x .7333 = 39,001,463.11(Total Revenue After Store Cuts)
Times 10 Earnings: 177,287,436.30 x .7333 = 130,004,877.04(Total Revenue After Store Cuts)

Between all these number will I say its a flop no, it did not flop like Concord or Dustborn but was it worth the cost to develop? No, not yet. Over time it may make its money back but this is not the sales win some people want to claim it is just based off its current position at the top of the sales chart.

[wirednight]

Don't use numbers. They don't like numbers, or solid arguments. They'd rather just sit there and scream their conspiracy theories whatever side they may be on.

[wirednight]

I'm actually going to agree with your conclusion, if not your math (there is no way this thing cost $500 million to make not with the Frostbite engine already being made).

But no it won't be the best selling Bioware game ever, but it'll turn a profit a decent profit. But EA likes big numbers and I don't think this game will be big enough for EA to want to keep investing in it.

[goldenvoidknight]

wirednight a écrit :

I'm actually going to agree with your conclusion, if not your math (there is no way this thing cost $500 million to make not with the Frostbite engine already being made).

But no it won't be the best selling Bioware game ever, but it'll turn a profit a decent profit. But EA likes big numbers and I don't think this game will be big enough for EA to want to keep investing in it.

500 million is the upper end. And honestly considering the game was in some shape or form under development for 9 years I can not in good conscience edge to the lower end of the cost spectrum. Is it as high as 500 million (remember this is including a large marketing spend) maybe not but its not going to be on the low end of only 120 million.