COMPARING PLAYER COUNTS, COPIES SOLD, AND GUESSING SUCCESS

[Xafron Chi]

EDIT: Look at pinned response. That is arguably the most objective, reasonable, well thought out attempt at an analysis I've seen so far. No "Bioware is back baby" and no "Wokeguard flop lol", just an attempt at doing the math and coming to a reasonable conclusion and nothing else.
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I've been on the fence about this game from the start. I refunded after Skill Up's review and looking more into the writing and companion dialogue of this game, and will likely come back at a later date when it is on sale.

That being said it seems ridiculous to call it a failure hours after launch. And I've seen people comparing this game's numbers to Elden Ring of all things, which makes no sense. That game was one of those rare global sensations that blew up bigger than anyone expected.

You have to keep in mind that a lot of people are at work, or asleep, and this game has like a 100 GB install. And probably a lot of people waiting to see and hear more about the game too. We probably will get the full picture of peak concurrent player numbers (on PC, not console) over the next week.

Elden Ring sold 5 million copies in its first week, and over 25 million in its lifetime.

That's more than Dragon Age: Inquisition has sold since 2014. 12 million as of this year, which marks 10 years since launch. And those numbers surpassed EA's internal projections by a lot.

If we're trying to look at concurrent players to guess at copies sold and success, then the Silent Hill 2 remake sold over 1 million copies in about three days. That game only hit a peak player count on Steam of 21,791. Veilguard has already tripled those player numbers in a matter of hours.

Metaphor: Refantazio sold 1 million copies in one day. They hit a peak player count of 85,194 which Veilguard is quickly approaching.

So at the bare minimum, it seems Veilguard could have already sold over a million copies and it hasn't even been out a full day.

I'm not here to tell you the game is good or bad, a success or failure. We've yet to see how many copies it will reach, or how much development cost them. That being said I think it will do well enough. It's a big budget fantasy RPG type game, and people are hungry for those. I also think that most of the discourse that has taken place around this game was in a bubble of "hardcore gamers" and that the vast majority of people buying it never really participated in any of that.

It will be interesting to continue watching, but the game is already doing better than I initially expected it to.

[Laeski]

Publicado originalmente por tfa:

Publicado originalmente por Laeski:

DAI cost 150 million to develop in 3 years (2011-2014). It sold 12 million copies, from which 2.2 million were on PC. So, for every 1 PC game, there were 5,455 games sold on consoles.

Shouldnt it be 6 console version sales for every pc sale?

If you would round it, it would go to 5. I like to use 5,455 cause it gives me more accurate results.

[goldenvoidknight]

I said this in my own post but that gonna get buried by the looks of it so here is more centralized place to say it. Just a quick look at how the numbers might be doing.

I am going to include some VERY basic math so we don't have pedantic arguments over the numbers.

Ok so lets just get a rough idea based on steam player count how much money they may have made opening weekend so far. I am going to give them a huge benefit of the doubt here just to prove the point. From looking online the estimated amount that it cost to make the game is 80-250 million and this is before the marketing spend. Marketing is another 50%-100% more money. They started working on this game in 2015 so give or take 9 years. I would hedge my bets the cost was on the higher end of the spectrum.

Now here is some basic math assuming sales are only 3 times more then the peak player count. (The count has gone up little bit so this is a little low but point stands)

73,879(Peak Players) x 3 = 221,637(Estimated Total Sales)
221,637(Estimated Total Sales) x 79.99(Max Cost) = 17,728,743.63(Max Total Revenue)
17,728,743.63(Max Total Revenue) x 3 = 53,186,230.89(Max Total Revenue All Platforms)

So with these estimates they would only have made just under 18 million. To a player that may sound like a lot but to a company like EA that's pocket change. If we assume they made equal sales across all platforms you are looking at just over 53 million. This is still less then the lowest estimate of the cost to produce it. The long tail on the game may eventually break even but its not shaping up to be the blockbuster they were probably looking for.

Now lets edge the earnings higher even still. At a 10 times more then peak player count.

73,879(Peak Players) x 10 = 738,790(Estimated Total Sales)
738,790(Estimated Total Sales) x 79.99 = 59,095,812.10(Max Total Revenue)
59,095,812.10(Max Total Revenue) x 3 = 177,287,436.30(Max Total Revenue All Platforms)

With these numbers its doing much better but still not what seems to be the blockbuster they would want. It is above the lower end of the cost range but not up to the higher end. Again this is ignoring the marketing cost which for this level of game is probably not on the cheap end. This is a major AAA legacy title they would want to do a big spend on to get as many people in the door as possible. I mean just look at the push for "A return to form" (not in any way saying collusion just saying that is the popular narrative) that is the prime example of what they want to hear its a bring in new player and reinvigorate the old players.

We are talking about a total cost of anywhere 120 million to 500 million total spend by EA to get this game out the door. The more money they make opening weekend before sales come into play lowering their take home is of the utmost importance. All of these estimates also do not take into account the store front cut which is 30% on both PSN and Xbox and starts at 30% on Steam going as low as 20% based on the total amount of earning the game has made. So again using the most favorable percentages that means EA is bringing home 39 million on the low end and 130 million on the high end.

30 + 30 + 20 = 26.67%
Times 3 Earnings: 53,186,230.89 x .7333 = 39,001,463.11(Total Revenue After Store Cuts)
Times 10 Earnings: 177,287,436.30 x .7333 = 130,004,877.04(Total Revenue After Store Cuts)

Between all these number will I say its a flop no, it did not flop like Concord or Dustborn but was it worth the cost to develop? No, not yet. Over time it may make its money back but this is not the sales win some people want to claim it is just based off its current position at the top of the sales chart.

[tfa]

Publicado originalmente por Laeski:

Publicado originalmente por tfa:

Shouldnt it be 6 console version sales for every pc sale?

If you would round it, it would go to 5. I like to use 5,455 cause it gives me more accurate results.

You're using a comma which makes it look like you're saying five thousand

[Xafron Chi]

Publicado originalmente por GroovyHobo:

Publicado originalmente por Xafron Chi:

I...never said this game would be considered a success. And that's what this seems to boil down to. Is you're determined to point out that I think this game will exceed all expectations and sell insanely well. And I never said it would. I'm not engaging with you anymore. I've tried explaining myself several times and where I'm coming from and you simply won't hear it.

Oh okay so this game flopped. And you're haggling over a 4k player difference... For what purpose?

Go read my old responses to you to figure it out. You seem to be the type that needs to hear something repeatedly to get it.

[Xafron Chi]

Publicado originalmente por goldenvoidknight:

I said this in my own post but that gonna get buried by the looks of it so here is more centralized place to say it. Just a quick look at how the numbers might be doing.

I am going to include some VERY basic math so we don't have pedantic arguments over the numbers.

Ok so lets just get a rough idea based on steam player count how much money they may have made opening weekend so far. I am going to give them a huge benefit of the doubt here just to prove the point. From looking online the estimated amount that it cost to make the game is 80-250 million and this is before the marketing spend. Marketing is another 50%-100% more money. They started working on this game in 2015 so give or take 9 years. I would hedge my bets the cost was on the higher end of the spectrum.

Now here is some basic math assuming sales are only 3 times more then the peak player count. (The count has gone up little bit so this is a little low but point stands)

73,879(Peak Players) x 3 = 221,637(Estimated Total Sales)
221,637(Estimated Total Sales) x 79.99(Max Cost) = 17,728,743.63(Max Total Revenue)
17,728,743.63(Max Total Revenue) x 3 = 53,186,230.89(Max Total Revenue All Platforms)

So with these estimates they would only have made just under 18 million. To a player that may sound like a lot but to a company like EA that's pocket change. If we assume they made equal sales across all platforms you are looking at just over 53 million. This is still less then the lowest estimate of the cost to produce it. The long tail on the game may eventually break even but its not shaping up to be the blockbuster they were probably looking for.

Now lets edge the earnings higher even still. At a 10 times more then peak player count.

73,879(Peak Players) x 10 = 738,790(Estimated Total Sales)
738,790(Estimated Total Sales) x 79.99 = 59,095,812.10(Max Total Revenue)
59,095,812.10(Max Total Revenue) x 3 = 177,287,436.30(Max Total Revenue All Platforms)

With these numbers its doing much better but still not what seems to be the blockbuster they would want. It is above the lower end of the cost range but not up to the higher end. Again this is ignoring the marketing cost which for this level of game is probably not on the cheap end. This is a major AAA legacy title they would want to do a big spend on to get as many people in the door as possible. I mean just look at the push for "A return to form" (not in any way saying collusion just saying that is the popular narrative) that is the prime example of what they want to hear its a bring in new player and reinvigorate the old players.

We are talking about a total cost of anywhere 120 million to 500 million total spend by EA to get this game out the door. The more money they make opening weekend before sales come into play lowering their take home is of the utmost importance. All of these estimates also do not take into account the store front cut which is 30% on both PSN and Xbox and starts at 30% on Steam going as low as 20% based on the total amount of earning the game has made. So again using the most favorable percentages that means EA is bringing home 39 million on the low end and 130 million on the high end.

30 + 30 + 20 = 26.67%
Times 3 Earnings: 53,186,230.89 x .7333 = 39,001,463.11(Total Revenue After Store Cuts)
Times 10 Earnings: 177,287,436.30 x .7333 = 130,004,877.04(Total Revenue After Store Cuts)

Between all these number will I say its a flop no, it did not flop like Concord or Dustborn but was it worth the cost to develop? No, not yet. Over time it may make its money back but this is not the sales win some people want to claim it is just based off its current position at the top of the sales chart.

One of the only well thought out comments in this entire thread.

[Laeski]

Publicado originalmente por tfa:

Publicado originalmente por Laeski:

If you would round it, it would go to 5. I like to use 5,455 cause it gives me more accurate results.

You're using a comma which makes it look like you're saying five thousand

Yeah, sorry. The ratio would be 1:5.455 in correct format.

[Dunbary]

https://gamalytic.com/game/1845910

Gamlytics has the estimate from 100k-300k copies sold, very grim

[Wizard Lizard]

EA spent $120m on Immortals of Aveum, a 15 hour long FPS made by 60 developers. The development cost for this was at least a quarter of a billion if not higher considering the long development time and number of employees.
This was a complete flop, anyone thinking otherwise fails to understand how much this cost to make.

[Broswick]

Publicado originalmente por termus:

This game is so damn good. Glad I bought it. Having a blast!

Some people will gobble up any slop that's thrust upon them.

[tfa]

Publicado originalmente por Laeski:

Publicado originalmente por tfa:

You're using a comma which makes it look like you're saying five thousand

Yeah, sorry. The ratio would be 1:5.455 in correct format.

Whats your source on 2 million for pc?

[Wizard Lizard]

Publicado originalmente por Morion:

People forget again and again, that almost 1/3 of the price is going to platform. Also, at last steam, they keep it after refunds so the dev needs to cover that 30%

also taxes…
if EA manages to pay US taxes rather than canadian, it will be better for them, but I do not know how that works with a developer & publisher(owner) in separate countries.

[goldenvoidknight]

Publicado originalmente por Dunbary:

https://gamalytic.com/game/1845910

Gamlytics has the estimate from 100k-300k copies sold, very grim

This makes me feel even better about my estimation listed above in total revenue for this game. I will clarify though IF that is the actual earning (aka they are closer to the lower estimate then the upper estimate) this is looking more on the lines of a flop. Still not to the level of Concord or Dustborn but in cost to earnings ratio its looking grim.

[Laeski]

Publicado originalmente por tfa:

Publicado originalmente por Laeski:

Yeah, sorry. The ratio would be 1:5.455 in correct format.

Whats your source on 2 million for pc?

Total sales were around 12 million, and on PC specifically, it’s believed to have sold around 2.2 million copies, according to player engagement and achievement data. Nothing solid, just analytics from people.

[Wizard Lizard]

dragon age inquisition "sold" 12 million copies after it was on sale for $2.99 and given away for free on the epic store
there is a reason they've never actually stated the total revenue

[Laeski]

Publicado originalmente por goldenvoidknight:

Publicado originalmente por Dunbary:

https://gamalytic.com/game/1845910

Gamlytics has the estimate from 100k-300k copies sold, very grim

This makes me feel even better about my estimation listed above in total revenue for this game. I will clarify though IF that is the actual earning (aka they are closer to the lower estimate then the upper estimate) this is looking more on the lines of a flop. Still not to the level of Concord or Dustborn but in cost to earnings ratio its looking grim.

It's quite common to use factors of 5 and 10 to calculate the total sales based on peak player count. I don't believe at all that it would be around the 385k to 500k units sold on PC alone. The numbers don't add up. So, the factor of 3 would be more accurate here.