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Xafron Chi Oct 31, 2024 @ 2:02pm
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COMPARING PLAYER COUNTS, COPIES SOLD, AND GUESSING SUCCESS
EDIT: Look at pinned response. That is arguably the most objective, reasonable, well thought out attempt at an analysis I've seen so far. No "Bioware is back baby" and no "Wokeguard flop lol", just an attempt at doing the math and coming to a reasonable conclusion and nothing else.
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I've been on the fence about this game from the start. I refunded after Skill Up's review and looking more into the writing and companion dialogue of this game, and will likely come back at a later date when it is on sale.

That being said it seems ridiculous to call it a failure hours after launch. And I've seen people comparing this game's numbers to Elden Ring of all things, which makes no sense. That game was one of those rare global sensations that blew up bigger than anyone expected.

You have to keep in mind that a lot of people are at work, or asleep, and this game has like a 100 GB install. And probably a lot of people waiting to see and hear more about the game too. We probably will get the full picture of peak concurrent player numbers (on PC, not console) over the next week.

Elden Ring sold 5 million copies in its first week, and over 25 million in its lifetime.

That's more than Dragon Age: Inquisition has sold since 2014. 12 million as of this year, which marks 10 years since launch. And those numbers surpassed EA's internal projections by a lot.

If we're trying to look at concurrent players to guess at copies sold and success, then the Silent Hill 2 remake sold over 1 million copies in about three days. That game only hit a peak player count on Steam of 21,791. Veilguard has already tripled those player numbers in a matter of hours.

Metaphor: Refantazio sold 1 million copies in one day. They hit a peak player count of 85,194 which Veilguard is quickly approaching.

So at the bare minimum, it seems Veilguard could have already sold over a million copies and it hasn't even been out a full day.

I'm not here to tell you the game is good or bad, a success or failure. We've yet to see how many copies it will reach, or how much development cost them. That being said I think it will do well enough. It's a big budget fantasy RPG type game, and people are hungry for those. I also think that most of the discourse that has taken place around this game was in a bubble of "hardcore gamers" and that the vast majority of people buying it never really participated in any of that.

It will be interesting to continue watching, but the game is already doing better than I initially expected it to.
Last edited by Xafron Chi; Nov 1, 2024 @ 1:39pm
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Originally posted by goldenvoidknight:
I said this in my own post but that gonna get buried by the looks of it so here is more centralized place to say it. Just a quick look at how the numbers might be doing.

I am going to include some VERY basic math so we don't have pedantic arguments over the numbers.

Ok so lets just get a rough idea based on steam player count how much money they may have made opening weekend so far. I am going to give them a huge benefit of the doubt here just to prove the point. From looking online the estimated amount that it cost to make the game is 80-250 million and this is before the marketing spend. Marketing is another 50%-100% more money. They started working on this game in 2015 so give or take 9 years. I would hedge my bets the cost was on the higher end of the spectrum.

Now here is some basic math assuming sales are only 3 times more then the peak player count. (The count has gone up little bit so this is a little low but point stands)

73,879(Peak Players) x 3 = 221,637(Estimated Total Sales)
221,637(Estimated Total Sales) x 79.99(Max Cost) = 17,728,743.63(Max Total Revenue)
17,728,743.63(Max Total Revenue) x 3 = 53,186,230.89(Max Total Revenue All Platforms)

So with these estimates they would only have made just under 18 million. To a player that may sound like a lot but to a company like EA that's pocket change. If we assume they made equal sales across all platforms you are looking at just over 53 million. This is still less then the lowest estimate of the cost to produce it. The long tail on the game may eventually break even but its not shaping up to be the blockbuster they were probably looking for.

Now lets edge the earnings higher even still. At a 10 times more then peak player count.

73,879(Peak Players) x 10 = 738,790(Estimated Total Sales)
738,790(Estimated Total Sales) x 79.99 = 59,095,812.10(Max Total Revenue)
59,095,812.10(Max Total Revenue) x 3 = 177,287,436.30(Max Total Revenue All Platforms)

With these numbers its doing much better but still not what seems to be the blockbuster they would want. It is above the lower end of the cost range but not up to the higher end. Again this is ignoring the marketing cost which for this level of game is probably not on the cheap end. This is a major AAA legacy title they would want to do a big spend on to get as many people in the door as possible. I mean just look at the push for "A return to form" (not in any way saying collusion just saying that is the popular narrative) that is the prime example of what they want to hear its a bring in new player and reinvigorate the old players.

We are talking about a total cost of anywhere 120 million to 500 million total spend by EA to get this game out the door. The more money they make opening weekend before sales come into play lowering their take home is of the utmost importance. All of these estimates also do not take into account the store front cut which is 30% on both PSN and Xbox and starts at 30% on Steam going as low as 20% based on the total amount of earning the game has made. So again using the most favorable percentages that means EA is bringing home 39 million on the low end and 130 million on the high end.

30 + 30 + 20 = 26.67%
Times 3 Earnings: 53,186,230.89 x .7333 = 39,001,463.11(Total Revenue After Store Cuts)
Times 10 Earnings: 177,287,436.30 x .7333 = 130,004,877.04(Total Revenue After Store Cuts)

Between all these number will I say its a flop no, it did not flop like Concord or Dustborn but was it worth the cost to develop? No, not yet. Over time it may make its money back but this is not the sales win some people want to claim it is just based off its current position at the top of the sales chart.
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Showing 1-15 of 172 comments
Xafron Chi Oct 31, 2024 @ 2:18pm 
Obviously there's other factors at play. As gameplay videos continue to come out in droves, news outlets and YouTubers and streamers do their thing, reviews from average players come out and so on, public perception could shift drastically one way or another impacting sales.

Guessing on copies sold... I don't have one for longer term, but going off of nothing but the above information I wouldn't be shocked to see between 1.5 million and 2.5 million copies sold by the end of the weekend.
#1
Xafron Chi Oct 31, 2024 @ 2:29pm 
Originally posted by agarest1:
Currently it's looking to be sub one million, the way it's going it's not going to do Metaphors numbers.

What makes you say that?
#2
Xafron Chi Oct 31, 2024 @ 2:40pm 
Originally posted by agarest1:
Currently it's looking to be sub one million, the way it's going it's not going to do Metaphors numbers.

Metaphor came out October 11.

It didn't hit its peak of 85,194 until about 7 PM on October 13th.

Veilguard has already come close to those numbers only hours after release.
#3
Free Luigi M. Oct 31, 2024 @ 2:44pm 
Originally posted by agarest1:
Originally posted by Xafron Chi:

What makes you say that?

Metaphor peaked at just under 86k, DA4 has peaked at 70k it give a rough idea of the sales.

DAV has not peaked yet. That's the problem with your estimate.
#4
Xafron Chi Oct 31, 2024 @ 2:44pm 
Originally posted by agarest1:
Originally posted by Xafron Chi:

What makes you say that?

Metaphor peaked at just under 86k, DA4 has peaked at 70k it give a rough idea of the sales.

Did you read what I said?

It released on the 11th and didn't hit that peak until late day on the 13th.

Veilguard came out at... I think 9 AM PST, it's now 2:45 PM PST, and has already nearly reached those numbers.
#5
Xafron Chi Oct 31, 2024 @ 2:46pm 
Originally posted by Joe Chip:
Originally posted by agarest1:

Metaphor peaked at just under 86k, DA4 has peaked at 70k it give a rough idea of the sales.

DAV has not peaked yet. That's the problem with your estimate.

^This. And every release goes up and down. They typically don't hit their peak day one.

https://steamcharts.com/app/2679460#All

^Look at that, hit ALL, and notice that it rises and falls. It was not a constant rise to the peak, and then a constant fall.
#6
[Heretic]Rivga Oct 31, 2024 @ 2:48pm 
More info for you Dragon age inquisition sold 12 million copies, only 4 million on PC.

70k day 1 is still small numbers, even if the console version will be higher.

Although it is on EA pro, so there will be people who sub to that, which is not in these numbers.
Last edited by [Heretic]Rivga; Oct 31, 2024 @ 2:51pm
#7
Xafron Chi Oct 31, 2024 @ 2:50pm 
Originally posted by HereticRivga:
More info for you Dragon age inquisition sold 12 million copies, only 4 million on PC.

That's in my original post, but yes. And that's 12 million across its entire lifespan of 10+ years.
#8
DeRossa Oct 31, 2024 @ 2:50pm 
Originally posted by Joe Chip:
Originally posted by agarest1:

Metaphor peaked at just under 86k, DA4 has peaked at 70k it give a rough idea of the sales.

DAV has not peaked yet. That's the problem with your estimate.
It did peak at 70k, it is stuck in this number for more than 1 hour now.
#9
Xafron Chi Oct 31, 2024 @ 2:51pm 
Originally posted by Motorola:
Originally posted by Joe Chip:

DAV has not peaked yet. That's the problem with your estimate.
It did peak at 70k, it is stuck in this number for more than 1 hour now.



Originally posted by Xafron Chi:
Originally posted by agarest1:

Metaphor peaked at just under 86k, DA4 has peaked at 70k it give a rough idea of the sales.

Did you read what I said?

It released on the 11th and didn't hit that peak until late day on the 13th.

Veilguard came out at... I think 9 AM PST, it's now 2:45 PM PST, and has already nearly reached those numbers.


Originally posted by Xafron Chi:
Originally posted by Joe Chip:

DAV has not peaked yet. That's the problem with your estimate.

^This. And every release goes up and down. They typically don't hit their peak day one.

https://steamcharts.com/app/2679460#All

^Look at that, hit ALL, and notice that it rises and falls. It was not a constant rise to the peak, and then a constant fall.

^^^^
#10
[Heretic]Rivga Oct 31, 2024 @ 2:52pm 
Originally posted by Xafron Chi:
Originally posted by HereticRivga:
More info for you Dragon age inquisition sold 12 million copies, only 4 million on PC.

That's in my original post, but yes. And that's 12 million across its entire lifespan of 10+ years.

The bit I was pointing out that console vs PC sold 2:1 .
#11
DeRossa Oct 31, 2024 @ 2:53pm 
Originally posted by Xafron Chi:
Originally posted by Motorola:
It did peak at 70k, it is stuck in this number for more than 1 hour now.



Originally posted by Xafron Chi:

Did you read what I said?

It released on the 11th and didn't hit that peak until late day on the 13th.

Veilguard came out at... I think 9 AM PST, it's now 2:45 PM PST, and has already nearly reached those numbers.


Originally posted by Xafron Chi:

^This. And every release goes up and down. They typically don't hit their peak day one.

https://steamcharts.com/app/2679460#All

^Look at that, hit ALL, and notice that it rises and falls. It was not a constant rise to the peak, and then a constant fall.

^^^^
aint we tlaking about day 1? it may reach 80k when mroe yankees come home, but even then i doubt it will ever peak 100k
#12
Berserk14055 Oct 31, 2024 @ 2:53pm 
Originally posted by Motorola:
Originally posted by Joe Chip:

DAV has not peaked yet. That's the problem with your estimate.
It did peak at 70k, it is stuck in this number for more than 1 hour now.

it hasnt peaked yet the peak happens on the weekend and it late in europe etc
#13
DeRossa Oct 31, 2024 @ 2:54pm 
Originally posted by Motorola:
Originally posted by Xafron Chi:








^^^^
aint we talking about day 1? it may reach 80k when more yankees come home, but even then i doubt it will ever peak 100k
#14
Xafron Chi Oct 31, 2024 @ 2:54pm 
Originally posted by HereticRivga:
Originally posted by Xafron Chi:

That's in my original post, but yes. And that's 12 million across its entire lifespan of 10+ years.

The bit I was pointing out that console vs PC sold 2:1 .

Oh my bad, that's fair.
#15
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Date Posted: Oct 31, 2024 @ 2:02pm
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