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Leo should be a B char where Asuka is single worst in the game. So I’m having hard time understanding how you mash those 2 together.
According to Kekken, Asuka's ranked win-rate significantly increases from 48.81% at beginner to 50.02% at advanced. The OP has a point when OP talks about her parries. They're really good when it comes to option selects and reads that can potentially stuff attacks into a counter-launch situation. Largely, this requires the player to understand the other opponent rather than mashing, so that's why Asuka might come off as single worst in the game. But, that's far from the truth.
Ironically, Paul's ranked win-rate goes from 50.54% at beginner to 49.44% at intermediate, to 49.86% at advanced. The single most interesting part about this is that, he's two of the ONLY characters out of every character to dip below 50% in terms at the advanced category consistently. The other one is Law, but he's at a 49.95% and it appears that Law players tend to just suck at intermediate level because their win-rate plummets hard from 49.62% at beginner to 49.19% at intermediate until advanced category.
Interestingly enough, there has to be a strong disconnect with tournament players putting Paul as solid, when Paul literally gets outshone in every advanced category. There's no wonder why he has no tournament presence. Why pick Paul when you have a character that's better than him tournament-wise and easier to win with?
As for Leo, Leo isn't as easy to pilot in the beginner and intermediate ranks, so not many players even get to the advanced category with Leo being very unpopular at 30th pick (unlike Law, who is at 11th). You could say the same for Leroy with similar pick-rate (31st) and win-rates at each category except advanced, but who's to say that the Leroy players are simply not maximizing the character to its potential?
Winrate is not a good metric to estimate the strength of a character. Don't forget that Reina and Kazuya both had one of the lowest winrate for a very long time despite how good they are, and that characters that are pretty darn bad like Panda, Eddy or Zafina have a good winrate since nobody knows the matchup.
Paul has f+2 which is one of the strongest buttons in the entire game, f+1+2, f+4, ws1,2, one if not the best df+1 in the game... With those alone, most players at high ranks would consider him S tier if it wasn't for the current state of the game's balance.
It's just that like Nina, he has a few technical things or niche setups to do that are not worth learning for tournaments when Dragunov, Alisa, Shaheen or Claudio exists.
And to reply to the op... You lack knowledge about Asuka man.
Her d+2 is -4 on-block, it's not comparable to Leo's d+2 or Law's f+1+2 that are like you said + on-block.
She's considered "bad" because her heat engagers are not the best, she doesn't have access to a i10 and i13 punishers, she's very linear and every single one of her panick buttons (cancan, sabaki, parry) are beaten by sidewalking to the right. Oh... And every single one of her lows are reactable for certain people which is not helping lol.
My quotation for win-rate goes for mostly advanced which the creator of the site said this:
"Beginner: from Beginner to Fujin;
Intermediate: from Raijin to Tekken Emperor;
Advanced: from Tekken Lord to Lord of Destruction."
Basically, it still checks out. Anyone above Tekken Lord to Lord of Destruction, there are only two characters whose win rates plummets hard at advanced category. It's Paul and Law, but like I said, Law is an outlier being that a lot of the intermediates struggle more in the win-rate than their advanced peers. What you say about Reina and Kazuya being low only counts if you add in both the beginners and intermediates. Past that, Reina is at a 50.20% and Kazuya... is actually at a 50.61%. This makes sense considering both characters have a abysmal win-rates at beginner and advanced.
That's kind of what I said though. Besides, Paul's d/f+1 is negligible when you have characters that simply out-shine him at all those categories. F+4 isn't as good as you say it is. It's i20 and puts him airborne. That means a heat-burst or jab-check or even a mid-check will float him. F+1+2 isn't that good considering it's linear and his lack of follow-ups thereafter. Considering you have characters that have uninterruptible or strong follow-ups, ws1,2 doesn't seem as potent as some character's flow-charts that are far more deadlier. You could replace that with a character such as a Feng's or even Xiaoyu's pressure for instance. Either way, he gets outshone in all categories and having one f+2 isn't going to cover all his bases. Even if you nerfed the upper half of the tiers, I doubt you will see Paul as a consistent top-tier pick.
I don't want to be that guy, but if Reina and Kazuya are suddenly above 50% winrate at high rank it's because they have to play solid to climb around Kishin~TK level, while many Law and Paul players are just flowcharting to Tekken God and get stuck there because it's not working anymore.
They're not playing to their character strengths but to their gimmicks, which will inevitably kill them in the long run and lower their winrate.
Not many would pick him but it's not because he would still be mid, it would just be because he requires some investment so it's not worth it for many pro players. Jin was easily top 5 in T7 and noboby picked him in tournaments except for loyalists because he required time to master. Why would you put 150+ hours in a character when you could pick Feng, Kuni or Zafina to win a cashprize ?
Paul is far from comparable to T7 Jin in terms of strength or difficulty but you get the idea, and tbh... There's not a single hard character in T8 so it might not even apply to this game anyway.
And when it comes to balancing the question is never "why does this character have this button that my character doesn't" but "why does my character have this button".
Some characters have a better df+1 (which is quite rare to begin with), but he has it alongside f+4 which is a i22 tracking heat engager that reaches from range 3 (getting floated while using it is quite rare except when not used in the right context)
f+1+2 is linear like most of the moves of this category but it can be held to get a +5 which almost guarantees a df+1 check (you can walk to the right), if your opponent is playing on the left side, he won't be able to deal with without taking a huge risk.
ws1,2 is a free mindgame that you can reset over and over again and that is heavily in Paul's favour.
And f+2 is just a poorly designed button which is almost impossible to punish even when whiffed or ducked because of its excessively fast recovery. So it's mostly a free i13 high heat engaging check at range 2.40, and if your opponent thinks that he could duck it to punish you which he'll probably fail anyway, you can mix it up with f+4, f+1+2 or even a deathfist at this range.
There's also his high crushing safe df+2, DemoMan, b+4, b+3 (no execution and safe i14 launcher is always good to have), b+2, 1 setup, the threat of an evasive panick button from time to time...
He's a huge bag of tools ranging from good to very good, so while a different character might have a better flowchart, Paul has access to a few good ones and excellent fundamental tools on the side with a good backdash and decent sidestep at 50% pass rate.
His movelist is packed. I'll never say that this character is not a solid A tier at bare minimum with so much potential.
I don't have much time for this right now, but I'll respond to this one right now. I'm going to have to hard disagree with this. First of all, most top tiers have something that utterly either skips neutral and/or makes them inevitably better in areas that actually matter the most...which is getting in their attacks in--aggressively. Tekken 8 is an aggressive game and characters like Jin benefit from this especially with that heat smash and 2,1,4. I will have to say, if you don't think Kazuya's or Reina's don't have strong flow-charts that can work in advanced levels, you're mistake. It's as simple as Kazuya's 50/50 ff3/hell-sweep, but now he has access to ff2 neutral skip and ewgf with a more refined touch. Ewgf is such a strong tool and you cannot compare that to Paul's f2. F2 will not launch like ewgf will. That is what makes them so deadly. Plus, it doesn't take a genius to start hammering in muscle-memory when it comes to re-aligning your attacks when you finally get proficient with them.
For example, Dragunov WR2, Nina's close-range lock-down pressure, Yoshimitsu's game-breaking healing, okizeme, damage, etc. If you think about it, at Paul does not play with any of these things and yes, he is "fundamental", but fundamentals is not an edge in a game where you're fighting with people with tools that are much more refined than your own. And gimmicks at intermediate with Paul is possible, but then again, you can play with any character on the roster and get better results than Paul's "gimmicks" in the intermediate levels. So, still, it's basically the same thing we're saying here... why use a "fundamental/basic character with vanilla moves that range from good to very good" when you have characters with kits that are far superior to his own or work better in most scenarios? And, what would nerfing those top tier characters do any good when they're designed by default to have those edges that are more favorable in a game like Tekken 8? You can't see Paul from a "standard" fundamental point of view of a "tekken character", it's just not feasible and it's better to think... what does this character offer in Tekken 8 that let's him fight with the best?
No no that's not my point ! I'm not saying that Kazuya or Reina is weaker than Paul or anything, I would never say that Paul is stronger than Kazuya in the first place.
What I'm saying is that it's more common for Kazuya and Reina players to start playing much more safely and solid around late Blue ranks compared to Law and Paul players. It's not a matter of character strength, just a matter of playerbase that influences the winrate at certain ranks which is why this metric sucks in my book.
I'd like to discuss more about Paul's strengths and all of that but it's been a while since I've had the occasion to play a long set against one or discuss with a GoD main, maybe things changed and if that's the case I'd like to be humble and not spout nonsence.
+ it's getting very late.
If you have some intel about the current state of Paul I'll gladly read it though, but this thread is probably not the right place for that.
Or use Leo yourself and a great many people will visually “show” you why it's so bad.