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Rain dance isn't safe at all, if P2 doesn't respect you and keep pressure with his fastest attack, you can only try to mindgame him with a swept or perhaps a side step, all the rest will be crushed just by a string starting with a jab. And with people with longer ranges like Lili or Dragunov, try to trap them with rain dance, they will kill you.
AOP is strong, hypnothist can be tricky, but a korean back dash and P2 is safe. If P2 isn't afraid and goes directly with his jabs to you when you go in hypnothist, you can't attack.
For 50/50, against a good Jin you will loose. he has better 50/50 with longer range. His pressure will be insane on you and you will need to get in neutral fast but then you will have difficulties to go to him because of demon pawn.
When a Xiaoyu will dominate in tournament, we will see. But the pros don't take her for a reason: there are many better characters who will get them the money.
The only reason xiaoyu has a low winrate is because xiaoyu players are the weakest in this game. They can't do anything right, so she's balanced through her playerbase.
As a less than average Xiaoyu player since Harada decided to abandon Julia(Tekken 3 - Tekken 6), I totally agree. As I'm learning to better use her stances, now that I'm able to cancel to them more easily... I literally forgot how to block consistently...
Whereas on the other side its easy to just pick up Drag / Feng / Lili etc. and immediately show the power of the char.
I truly think the only one who can rival Xiaoyu is probably Feng, but the reason I think Xiaoyu is better is because you can actually punish a lot of Feng’s lows, most of Xiaoyu’s lows are safe and the only way you can truly punish them is with a low parry, but good luck with that because Bamco doesn’t like defense in their game, and they nerfed it heavily since T7.
I don't say "perfectly balanced"... it's the 1rst year, there is no character balanced.
You speak about "safe 50/50". => Xiaoyu has only 3 safe 50/50 all the rest can be crushed, but uninformed people believe all are safe because they don't lab. You are lazzy.
The 3 safe 50/50 are:
1- run 3 (give you +6) => AOP will beat any attacks here, but you can side step or just block and watch out for a sweep. It's the same for Dragunov with his running 2 (he is safe after it and keep his turn, same for Law with his running kick... in fact all characters has that tool).
2- ff4 (you will be in a +frame) => hypnothist if hit or blocked (you can duck) and beat any attacks... But Korean back dash can save you.
3- From back stance's Heat Smash => Hypnothist in + frame... and every Heat Smashes give you a safe 50/50.
Go count in your main how many safe 50/50 they have. We will see if they have less than Xiaoyu. Xiaoyu is number one ONLY for evadeing attacks, she is a specialist and you need to do the good read to do the proper evade or else you'll be sorry.
So don't speak about what you don't know. As every characters in this game, you will have a knowledge chek above red ranks. Learn your matchup because any players who know frame traps and movements will be a problem for you, and you'll cry for nerf. Tekken is a legacy game, you have 20 years of knowledge to learn, it will take you years.
Again Xiaoyu has a low win rate for a reason. And it's not just "knowing what they are doing", your opponent isn't a bot and know to adapt. Some days ago, a strong Xiaoyu player (Shaoling) did a 3 perfect on his opponent in tournament... and in the same tournament later, a Jin who used well his 50/50 perfected his Xiaoyu. So who are carried or not in this game ? Again when you see the win rate, you'll have a better idea of the reality and not just your sentiment.