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But hey, third time lucky, again! Or, maybe not this time - I think I've figured it out. So the start is important of course. First turn I just get the 2 Plains flag techs, and allocate enough wealth to have 45 research for turn 2, so I can get the second Plains food tech. Early flagging is mostly focused on heading east, but also a few of the easy Plains north. I don't try to contest the near river (just if I have spare food and it's not bordered). After a few turns I'm swimming in food thanks to all the plains and the cheap flag techs, so I switch my wealth over to research. I get a city on the coastal plains spot just below the mountain, as soon as I can do it while still being able to place a flag heading northeast of there (racing the Harrapans). I focus on extending the border and using power techs to try and win border contests (plus one more city up north). I don't worry too much about filling in the interior or chasing the bottom river until I've first placed whatever flags I need to keep contesting the main border, and I start on the desert before the interior is complete.
Now, here's the thing I missed in those first 2 games. You have *coast* and the Harrapans don't. Building and expanding cities on the coast is cheaper, which gives you a leg up in the population crown race (where I was falling behind earlier). I placed 2 defensive cities, one on the east/north/east plains, and one on the northern plains near the desert. Then I just put cities wherever they could fit on the coast. After getting my main techs I switched wealth back to food for a while (food was 3 crowns, tech was 1 crowns, so it may vary for you). I had about 20% into power by this point and 2 armies near my 2 defensive cities. I stayed 1 tile back from the border so I could defend without threatening - eventually they mostly focused on harassing each other. And I got there with Harrapans probably a few turns away from getting the 3 wealth stars (oh, so yeah, I switched wealth out of food towards the end there of course).
[edit] I do think maybe Dholavira rates a Hard though. I'd possibly swap their Medium for Mohenjo-Daro's Hard rating, since at least Mohenjo-Daro have all those lovely hills that let them go aggressive very early.
[edit2] This might help. The map looked pretty similar in the games I lost as well, except for those coastal cities: https://steamcommunity.com/sharedfiles/filedetails/?id=2876386526
Yeah, that's the cheesy way that some people might beat them on the hardest difficulties, or if they're just trying to get the achievements. Less cheesy is increasing the crowns needed to 10, so you don't get blitzed early. I haven't had to resort to either yet, although 10 crowns might just be more fun.
In both cases I needed a crown opportunity to beat the Harappans, so if it is way easier to get 6 than 7 crowns, try to plan around buying an opportunity to win.
Also it is probably wise to avoid having Great Lighthouse since Harappans will always be able to get that. However, the AI is not nearly as good at completing Artemis and Gardens as a human players.
I tried the guide posted above and it just doesn't work. I don't know what I'm missing. I think if they either started them with a river tile (so you can buy the river expansion techs turn 1), or start the other civ a tile closer to Harrapans it might be possible. No idea how this is a medium.