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However, I also saved over 4,000 Lions, and I've checked the Currency Exchange (on the table above the mission book in Gold Rock City) and found that if I convert my Al Ankh Lions into Gold Lions I can get over 120 Gold Lions, and it only costs 75 Gold Lions to purchase the Sanbuq! So you should already be able to upgrade the Dhow and still have enough to also purchase the Sanbuq if you wanted!
Anyway, to answer your actual question: "How long will it take for the local economy to recover?"
I don't know the exact number, but I think if you stay away from the area for about 2 to 3 weeks of in-game time (enough time to travel across the ocean to another region, and then back to Al Ankh) the economy should have recovered a lot. Of course, crossing the open ocean will be way way safer if you purchase the Sanbuq first, and I realize you might not be interested in ocean travel, so it may not be ideal!
If you have a suncompass (or quadrant and regular compass) you can sail across to Emerald in the Dhow if you don't think you will reach the Sanbuq
If you don't have those and are really stuck with anything, it might be worth making another save game in Emerald and seeing what there is there and using what you've learnt to try and save a bit more to afford a bigger boat
Also from AA you can go to Oasis quite comfortably, but Emerald offers you both Fire Fish Lagoon or Happy Bay as a shorter oceanic trip
There are also very few goods available in the non-capital island.
Acceptable profits come from missions between archipelagos, I'm afraid, and I agree that a Sanbuq would be the most reliable way to reach other worlds, even if I heard some did Gold Rock City to Fort Aestrin in a Dhow.
4K lions should be enough to buy you the sanbuq. And then you can use the smuggling thing to get another 30 gold lions and use that to remodel your ship to some useable extent, then you should just sail to Emerald. Bring some spices/silk with you and then remember to take a quest.
if the economy just hard-reset if you got too far from a region, it would screw the economies of the other regions, as they trade between each other based on supply and demand.
Like others have said, I suggest getting yourself the Sanbuq, and heading to Dragon Cliffs with all the nav tools, provisions, and as many missions as your rep and cargo hold allow. With the default rigging on the Sanbuq, Just stay around 31 degrees and head east, you can track your approximate position with the sun compass, and/or clock at noon, check latitude with your quardrant on the north star at night to make sure you're not too far north or south. I usually make it with 9-10 days at sea... Then bounce around that region for a bit, don't forget to head south "off the map" to visit the new island too (Still part of Emeralds/same currency) - your pile of merchant gold should see a significant increase.
After that, head north to Ft. Aestrin - and eventually SW back to Al'Ankh... you'll be gone for a significant amount of time, and if the economy STILL hasn't recovered - I dunno.. flood the market with some previously super expensive item? I'm out of ideas lol