Is this right?

[DecoBud]

https://steamcommunity.com/sharedfiles/filedetails/?id=2947666516

[boris.glevrk]

No. Stop the "clockwise wind" myth.

Also, from Chronos back you need to drop below 32 latitude. Never tried going further north tbh.

Between Aestrin and Emerald the wind is actually more favorable (just barely) the other direction. (i.e. Emerald to Aestrin is more favorable)
And between Al'Ankh and Emerald... Al'Ankh is West wind and Emerald is east. So in either direction you start downwind and end upwind. But statisticly the shifting point is closer to Al'Ankh, that's why people claim going west is better (but it's still a matter of luck).
The only true part about the "clockwise wind" myth is between Al'Ankh and Aestrin, where the prevaling wind is indeed south-western.

[DecoBud]

The clock wise myth is true I've sailed on the triangle order Al Ank -> Aestrin -> Emerald 7 times and its the best way... tried once backwars (Anti clockwise) and its just suffering. Droping below 32 latitute is good to go from chronos to emerald.

Im going further north now trying CHRONOS -> AESTRIN I'm already on 44N 22E to confirm.
Going up to 50N just to test the wind. Soon comes the report...

[boris.glevrk]

I tested the Aestrin/Emerald leg and Al'Ankh/Emerald leg for at least 20 runs. I can tell you clockwise myth is just a myth.
First of all, Emerald to Aestrin is slightly more advantageous than otherwise, as S~SW wind are prevailing from about 33 latitude to Aestrin.
That alone would bust the clockwise myth, because your theory now only works for 2/3 routes i.e. 66%, and a myth would work for 50% of the time. (a lot of people admits the Aestin/Emerald thing and go on to suggest "my theory is still 66% correct", but that's BS. 66% means not significantly better than 50% i.e. flipping a coin)

Al'ankh-Emerald is more marginal, as the switch point is statistically more offset to the Al'Ankh side, so *statistically* you get more East winds. But that's only statistical and your experience every journey will be different.

So like I said, the only place the clockwise myth actually works is between Al'Ankh and Aestrin. It fails in both other legs (Al'Ankh-Emerald is insignificant, Aestrin-Emerald is opposite)

By the way: (all results tested in 3MJ, some are customized ship, some are not)
GRC to Dcliff (ccw)
Fastest: 8 days 2 hours (modifled)
Slowest: 9 days 19 hours (default)

Dcliff to GRC (cw)
Fastest: 6.5 days (default but departed from Sage Hills instead of Dcliff so it's closer)
Slowest: 8 day 16 hours (default)

Dcliff to FA (ccw)
Fastest: 8 days 1 hour (modified, including at least 3 stoppages during sleep)
Slowest: 9.5 days (default)

FA to Dcliff (cw)
Fastest: 8 days 4~6 hours I forgot (Modified, also include 2~3 stoppages)
slowest: 10 days (dafault)

For GRC and FA I only sailed the wrong way once. Never sailed that route since. It took me 12 days to go from FA to GRC and that was true suffering.

So "it's just suffering" does NOT apply to the entire ccw route, only the FA-GRC leg.
The DCliff to FA part is actually better than otherwise.

[Thundercracker]

the prevailing wind map taken from the game file data looks near enough to clockwise to me.

[boris.glevrk]

Like I said it's literally the opposite on one of the legs, and a theory that only works 66% of the time is no better than flipping a coin, which works 50% of the time. "Close enough" is just not good enough. Continuing the myth will only harm new players.

There are also factors like whether the upwind or downwind leg is in a higher rate-of-change region (Aestrin>Emerald>Al'Ankh. Even if you see a "default wind direction" map in Aestrin it doesn't mean much, as wind direction in Aestrin changes too often), whether the upwind or downwind leg is in a more stormy region (Emerald > rest) and stuff.

[DecoBud]

I went up to 48N20E departing from Chronos and the wind is pushing W -> E all the time... not changing for 1s. Will be hard to reach Aestrin. Going north not advised.

[JPL 1138]

Originally posted by boris.glevrk:

... and a theory that only works 66% of the time is no better than flipping a coin, which works 50% of the time.

No, 66% is a majority of the time and effectively the prevailing reality. 66 > 50. This is a mathematical fact, Boris, you can't argue with that.

Even if it was a mere 51% it would still be valid.

[DecoBud]

Just take the SANBUQ put the sails in a 45 angle and dont worry about the wind mate! HAHA

[Odoty]

This [static.wikia.nocookie.net] is the recognised Tradewind map

Sometimes people use this one [static.wikia.nocookie.net], but I find it more confusing, because you have to know the priorities, and really it tells you exactly the same thing

[boris.glevrk]

Originally posted by JPL 1138:

Originally posted by boris.glevrk:

... and a theory that only works 66% of the time is no better than flipping a coin, which works 50% of the time.

No, 66% is a majority of the time and effectively the prevailing reality. 66 > 50. This is a mathematical fact, Boris, you can't argue with that.

Even if it was a mere 51% it would still be valid.

Uh, no. There is one thing called "statistically insignificant".
It means "there is a difference, but considering the sample size it's really not much different from randomness".

At the sample size of three, difference between 66% and 50% is "statistically insignificant".

Not to mention the OP tries to suggest 100% accuracy ("I tried counterclockwise and it's really just suffering") while it's literally the opposite for the Aestrin-Emerald leg.


Plus, both Aestrin and Emerald have issues that makes "trade wind" somewhat questionable (I won't call them entirely not a thing)
Aestrin has very high random wind change rate (5~15 seconds per change) as well as very large random wind range (basically covers the entire western half circle); Emerald has the highest chance for counter-prevailing wind (where wind shifts from NE prevailing wind to S~SW counter prevailing wind and back in the course of a few days).

The transition between Emerald and Al'Ankh is also blur. I agree it generally offsets west from the 0 longitudinal line, but the westernmost transition I experienced was 4W, and the easternmost was about 2~3E. That would mean the clockwise wind myth only truly works for one leg in practice.

[boris.glevrk]

Originally posted by Odoty:

This [static.wikia.nocookie.net] is the recognised Tradewind map

Sometimes people use this one [static.wikia.nocookie.net], but I find it more confusing, because you have to know the priorities, and really it tells you exactly the same thing

Both pics seem to be dead link though...?

[boris.glevrk]

And finally, the most compelling reason I would suggest strongly against publishing this "clockwise wind" myth is "your mileage may differ" problem.
Every Clockwiser (so to speak) I met so far agrees that it's merely "comparatively advantageous", in limited situations (such as excluding the Aestrin/Emerald leg).
But when you publish the clockwise myth and market it as "prevailing wind"/"trade wind", what would new players think?
They will expect downwind all the way as long as they go clockwise (yes I have seen at least one such complaints already).

So please, for the sake of not giving new players wrong expectations at the very least, stop the clockwise myth.

[Odoty]

Originally posted by boris.glevrk:

Originally posted by Odoty:

This [static.wikia.nocookie.net] is the recognised Tradewind map

Sometimes people use this one [static.wikia.nocookie.net], but I find it more confusing, because you have to know the priorities, and really it tells you exactly the same thing

Both pics seem to be dead link though...?

Some cookies thing with Fandom no doubt, because they are still visible on the wiki, but the links I made are dead, however that works

We will try Discord links
Image 1 [cdn.discordapp.com]
Image 2 [cdn.discordapp.com]

[boris.glevrk]

Originally posted by Odoty:

Originally posted by boris.glevrk:

Both pics seem to be dead link though...?

Some cookies thing with Fandom no doubt, because they are still visible on the wiki, but the links I made are dead, however that works

We will try Discord links
Image 1 [cdn.discordapp.com]
Image 2 [cdn.discordapp.com]

Working now.
This map is definitely a lot better than "clockwise".
though it should be noted that the transition between al ankh wind and Emerald wind is very subject to change (either that or the chance of counter-prevailing chance in Emerald is high enough to cause that).
Personally I have seen the transition happen anywhere between -3 and +3 longitude...

[Thundercracker]

Originally posted by boris.glevrk:

Originally posted by Odoty:

Some cookies thing with Fandom no doubt, because they are still visible on the wiki, but the links I made are dead, however that works

We will try Discord links
Image 1 [cdn.discordapp.com]
Image 2 [cdn.discordapp.com]

Working now.
This map is definitely a lot better than "clockwise".
though it should be noted that the transition between al ankh wind and Emerald wind is very subject to change (either that or the chance of counter-prevailing chance in Emerald is high enough to cause that).
Personally I have seen the transition happen anywhere between -3 and +3 longitude...

you are aware, roughly speaking, that this map is "clockwise," correct? the only exception is from aestrin to emerald, and then only above roughly 33N. in any other situation, the prevailing wind is going to follow the direction a clock's hand would travel, provided the clock was centered on the ocean map.

2/3 follow clockwise. that 1/3 is not "statistically significant."