How are the prices calculated when trading ?

[Glendathu]

Just had a very frustrating journey from Al Nilem to Gold Rock City. Before I bought stuff in Al Nilem I had 7000 bucks. When I unloaded all my cargo in Gold Rock City, only about 6900 were left.

I bought 15 crates of Coconuts for 2611, profit should be from 56 to 30 per crate.
Instead of this I only got 2597 for all 15 in Gold Rock City.

Same with White Tobacco, bought it for 1398 and only received 1365 for it.

So either these folks at Gold Rock City are fraudsters or I didn't understand how these prices are calculated.

Has it to do with the "days ago" number ? Can I somehow find out wether the promised profit will be paid at the destination before I buy stuff ?

Thanks for enlightening my poor sailors mind !

[RebelCobra]

I can't get into the specifics of it, but the economy is ever fluctuating. One way I view it - even though this doesn't happen in the game, or at least not yet - is the time it takes you to travel. Realistically, the capital city of a region would have other ships arriving to it somewhat regularly and unloading all kinds of goods. If it takes you days to get from point A to point B, that's days for another ship to arrive and offload its cargo. And if the ship unloaded several crates of let's say coconuts in your case, the city would definitely pay less than they were for those crates of coconuts.

This is not how the games works, or at least not yet, but I would absolutely love to see this kind of indication in the game. This is, however, the most realistic explanation that I can provide.

[ling.speed]

Price changes according to supply and demand, updating at midnight (as things are consumed and produced), when invisible trading ships arrive (possibly at midnight as well) and each time you make a transaction.

Now if you take your time its possible for the demand to be filled by other ships before you arrive and so the selling price is lower, but more likely its an issue with overbuying and overselling.

The prices in the log book are average, first box being profitable, does not guarantee 10th will be as well. How fast the price changes as you buy depends on how big the market is. If you trade between small islands in a big ship its easy to get into trouble with this.

[Jim]

Also, the number of days ago does have meaning. It tells you how long ago those numbers were recorded. Information about the markets in other ports gets carried by boats (yours, or those invisible trading boats that ling.speed mentioned). If it has been seven or eight days since a boat arrived from your destination, then the market data is quite outdated, and it will be even more outdated by the time you get there.

I have lost money on a few deals this way, but I think that the number of goods purchased or sold (as ling.speed mentioned) is the bigger factor. Supply and demand means that as the supply drops the prices go up. Likewise, if you flood a market with the same goods, the price per crate will drop.

[Odoty]

Originally posted by RebelCobra:

I can't get into the specifics of it, but the economy is ever fluctuating. One way I view it - even though this doesn't happen in the game, or at least not yet - is the time it takes you to travel. Realistically, the capital city of a region would have other ships arriving to it somewhat regularly and unloading all kinds of goods. If it takes you days to get from point A to point B, that's days for another ship to arrive and offload its cargo. And if the ship unloaded several crates of let's say coconuts in your case, the city would definitely pay less than they were for those crates of coconuts.

This is not how the games works, or at least not yet, but I would absolutely love to see this kind of indication in the game. This is, however, the most realistic explanation that I can provide.

I don't know what you think you know, but that is basically how it works. The boats are invisible, you cannot see them or tell where they are, but they do move the economy

Originally posted by Glendathu:

Has it to do with the "days ago" number ? Can I somehow find out wether the promised profit will be paid at the destination before I buy stuff ?

Presumably you picked up the receipts, because you know the exact numbers. All I would say is check the prices when you arrive before you sell. You don't have to sell all or even any of it if you don't want.
Try and pick goods where their price is low compared to all the other islands (ie big surplus) then if your planned destination changes its price, you can always hold onto it and take it somewhere else

[ling.speed]

One more thing are missions, afair they operate together with normal trading, affecting supply and demand, but the effects of taking and finishing them lag behind.

So unfortunate (or fortunate if you are dumping) timing can change the profits.

[Ailika]

For me supply/demand doesn't really recover that much and after a while local trade is ruined, so i need to go somewhere else but it gets ruined there too, now i can't do any good local trade within the 3 main archipielagos or Firefish. I can trade between archipielagos but the fact that local trade stagnates over time seems wrong.

And is not like "ok go back to Al'Anhk after a 120 days away and it has to be good again right?", nope it's still ruined, maybe you can trade 1 or 2 copper crates from AL'Nilem (a single time) and that's it, nothing profitable in any island.

[Thundercracker]

Originally posted by Ailika:

For me supply/demand doesn't really recover that much and after a while local trade is ruined, so i need to go somewhere else but it gets ruined there too, now i can't do any good local trade within the 3 main archipielagos or Firefish. I can trade between archipielagos but the fact that local trade stagnates over time seems wrong.

And is not like "ok go back to Al'Anhk after a 120 days away and it has to be good again right?", nope it's still ruined, maybe you can trade 1 or 2 copper crates from AL'Nilem (a single time) and that's it, nothing profitable in any island.

you're going to have to sink some profits into equalizing the economy, or spend a significant chunk of time trading between regions.

you're correct, local trade is /designed/ to stagnate, at least factoring in a player trying to maximize profits in a given time. it forces inter-region trade, both for the regions themselves and the player.

now, i havent worked out the specifics of it, because the focus of my observations thus far have been inter-regional trade, but in theory it should be more than possible to game the local economy of a region so that you're not forced out, or forced to trade at a major loss.

i'm thinking small batches of profitable goods, and targeted trade of small batches of unprofitable goods. the actual profit margins are probably going to be razor thin, and im going to have to actually collect/ see some data to provide anything more specific.

however, this is actually something of a minor tweak to how i normally operate. when i'm operating in-archipelago, i'll roll into the capitol to drop off my missions, and sell what i've brought. i then do in-archipelago trading, but i'm also buying things that are locally not profitable, but are profitable in the next region i'll be in. by the time i've visited all the ports in a region, i've amassed a decent trade cargo, and i head back to the capitol. once there, i take on as many missions as i can to the next region, and repeat the process.

[Glendathu]

Originally posted by Jim:

Also, the number of days ago does have meaning. It tells you how long ago those numbers were recorded. Information about the markets in other ports gets carried by boats (yours, or those invisible trading boats that ling.speed mentioned). If it has been seven or eight days since a boat arrived from your destination, then the market data is quite outdated, and it will be even more outdated by the time you get there.

I have lost money on a few deals this way, but I think that the number of goods purchased or sold (as ling.speed mentioned) is the bigger factor. Supply and demand means that as the supply drops the prices go up. Likewise, if you flood a market with the same goods, the price per crate will drop.

Thanks for your explanation, I think in my case it was the problem of outdated data, I will have an eye on this numbers in the future !

[Glendathu]

Presumably you picked up the receipts, because you know the exact numbers. All I would say is check the prices when you arrive before you sell. You don't have to sell all or even any of it if you don't want. [/quote]

That's a good point, now that I have more money left when my ship is full (depending on the goods of course)

So if I put my 20 crates on the quay to sell them later, I hope they are still there when I come back from another journey ?

[Glendathu]

Originally posted by Ailika:

For me supply/demand doesn't really recover that much and after a while local trade is ruined, so i need to go somewhere else but it gets ruined there too, now i can't do any good local trade within the 3 main archipielagos or Firefish. I can trade between archipielagos but the fact that local trade stagnates over time seems wrong.

And is not like "ok go back to Al'Anhk after a 120 days away and it has to be good again right?", nope it's still ruined, maybe you can trade 1 or 2 copper crates from AL'Nilem (a single time) and that's it, nothing profitable in any island.

This does not sound so good. I also have noticed that suddenly there are no more profitable trades to make...

[ling.speed]

Yeah big ships are kind of too big for the amount of trade that the islands need.
Which is kind of the point to keep money revelant for longer but i digress...

Afaik leaving cargo alone on pier it will despawn if you venture too far. Atm it is indended to store it with the hauler guy for a small daily fee.

It might be still possible to store cargo for free in ports that have a boat for sale - place it on the deck and should be considered part of the ship and saved, but havent tried it in a while so need test if it works still.

[Ailika]

Originally posted by Thundercracker:

[...]
when i'm operating in-archipelago, i'll roll into the capitol to drop off my missions, and sell what i've brought. i then do in-archipelago trading, but i'm also buying things that are locally not profitable, but are profitable in the next region i'll be in. by the time i've visited all the ports in a region, i've amassed a decent trade cargo, and i head back to the capitol. once there, i take on as many missions as i can to the next region, and repeat the process.

This seems a sensible way of doing trade, given how local trade ends up and that it is practically irrelevant compared to trading between regions. Way to go for sure.

You can influence the trade positivelly, not sure if it's worth to do at a loss but taking away items that are in demand is a good idea, for example take copper away from Gold Rock City if you can sell it elsewere or if there are missions taking copper (i have had them) and avoid missions taking cooper from AL'Nilem, just because copper from AL'Nilem to GRC is profitable, things like that can help early on.

[Glendathu]

So on my last journey I payed close attention on the prices.

What I did not realize until now, is that not only the prices increase mostly after every crate/barrel I buy. When you sell the stuff, the price you get for your load decreases after every piece too!

If you then add that the destination prices in general can decrease, you have 3 factors that lower your profit. And the predicted profit is only existent with the 1st piece of that kind of freight.

Here's what I bought:

10x Water Buy 20 Sell 40 Profit 20
Average profit at start was 19.2 which seemed reasonable.
At the destination the price was 39 for the first piece, but because of the sale-decrease the average profit was 14.3.

5x Coconuts Buy: 162 Sell: 181 Profit 19
Average profit at start was 16.6.
At the destination the price was 178 for the first piece, but because of the sale-decrease the average profit was only 11.2, nearly half of the predicted profit.

6x Spices Buy: 203 Sell: 226 Profit 23
Average profit for 1x at start was 19.5.
At the destination the price was only 209 for the first piece, but because of the decrease the average profit was at -1, so I lost 6 bucks here.

My conclusion is: Never transport too much of a kind, best would be few high priced goods. I did not notice these price differences when I still had the smaller ship, but now with more room for freight, it is obvious. Seems like a bigger ship has only the advantage of more speed and the ability to transport heavier stuff...

[Thundercracker]

Originally posted by Glendathu:

My conclusion is: Never transport too much of a kind, best would be few high priced goods. I did not notice these price differences when I still had the smaller ship, but now with more room for freight, it is obvious. Seems like a bigger ship has only the advantage of more speed and the ability to transport heavier stuff...

just so. typically, i'll be loaded with ~5 crates of 2-4 profitable items. sometimes it gets a bit messy, because i do not sell at a loss, i'll just hold onto the crate till i find somewhere that will give me profit.

this is independent of my big shipments i periodically do trying to load myself down and see just how far i can push my brig. i did 2 or 3 circuits of the archipelagos with my entire hold stuffed with iron and copper, in addition to everything i was carting around for 5 missions and the goods in the first paragraph. i eventually did sell it all, and that's what started me on holding onto certain goods.

[ling.speed]

Originally posted by Glendathu:

My conclusion is: Never transport too much of a kind, best would be few high priced goods. (...)
Seems like a bigger ship has only the advantage of more speed and the ability to transport heavier stuff...

Just one example: You can get tons of tea from emeralds by buying over time and from different places and then transport it to different region and sell over time and in every island for massive profit.

So its not a hard rule to not buy a lot of the same stuff, just gotta know what and how.