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One thing to bear in mind wtih all of CotN is that it was one of the first games that allowed all of the citizens to have an independent AI routine. In previous games like Zeus or Cleopatra, players had to create paths for the workers to follow and they wouldn't deviate from them. The point being that the AI in the game is somewhat primitive and since a large city can have 400 citizens, it also had to be kept simple enough so that it wouldn't burden the CPU. So to your issues, yes, the commanders who are in charge of the city watch will make stupid decisions as do the guards themselves. This also why your bricklayers will sometimes make some bad choices about what they should be building.
If I remember correctly, invaders will always come from the same side of the local map, regardless of where the bandit camps are on the world view. So basically what you want to do is wait for the first group of raiders to show up and figure out where they are coming from. Then build one guard post on that side of your settlement and thats all you need for the whole game. Its a cheap solution and not what you would call strategic, but the point of the mechanic is to force you to spend resources to defend the city. It is not meant to be a tactical mechanic.
Bricklayers' bouts of foolishness are also easy enough to handle simply by strategic placement of Brickyards. Perhaps a solution would be if Guard Posts acted more like Brickyards. Commanders would not be necessary to be at the Post. Provided there is a City Guard Commander and sufficient Guards the Guards would be distributed evenly across the Posts. Commanders would still visit Posts as their jobs, but they would never NEED to have been there or be there in order for Guards to patrol. I know there is some overhang after a Commander leaves a Post where Guards continue patrolling, but IMO it should be permanent. Once a Post is built, there should always be a set number of Guards at that Post. Seems like that would've been a simple and elegant solution.
In the mission I am playing the Raiders actually come from three different map edges despite both raider sites being from the South. Sometimes they will come via the Nile bank to the East, sometimes they come from the desert to the North, and other times they come via the Nile bank/desert to the South (haven't had an attack from the West yet), which is where my frustration stems from because I need three different Guard Posts at each different entry point to the city, the size of my city makes transiting between the Posts pretty much half a day's journey, and there are no obvious bottlenecks to build Walls to funnel enemies towards a single entry.