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There is a drop off in performance, the best way to see this is often by looking at other cars lap times. Once you are losing a few tenths a lap, you might want to pit.
I think that the tire strategy calculations are really off. If I take the preset strategy for Silverstone with 3 stints, (H,M,S) and change the pace in the strategy window for the hard tires to the lowest pace, the game tells me that Im going the end the race 4 Minutes faster... that would lead to going into the first pit with 70% hard tires and beeing ultra slow from the first moment, but the calculation thinks its faster.
I think you need to assume that the strategy screen is taking it's calculations on tire degradation alone.
It's the only explanation as to why not pushing would result in faster theoretical race times. Less wear on the tires means they are closer to new and haven't had as much "wear penalty" applied.
The time loss per lap is an average and I fear this is similar to the vanilla MM where there are 3 distinct wear bands with ever increasing wear penalty. So if you don't take a tire over a certain threshold, the time loss won't be as bad.
Though to be honest, 4 minutes is a huge difference
It's clearly bugged. You then run the cars in the race on different tire strats and the one on medium will stay with the one on softs due to DRS.
I guess they broke the code with the adjustments for Tyre degradation.
Before the patch, The lap times wouldnt degrade much untill you hit a certain number, around 30%.
Now the laptimes are much more affected by that.