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- it started low beacuse gold was hard to come by while crystals were easy + ppl had it from founders packs
- it went to about 1k due to 2 facts: whales rushing to 1400 and a lot of "1 time only gold reward" (a lot of them was early on and bots were farming it; smilegate remove that source in later patch)
- its now sitting at stabilized price (seems to be around 420 - range where its worth for whales to spend money, and worth to ppl spend gold on it) beacuse theres no extra gold income and there is a some sort of cap of how much you can earn gold weekly
also an extra note: the chances for crystal's price to drop are rather extreemly low beacuse people wont spend real money if they will get like 500g (1 tap) for it as its not worth it. But the price will most likley increase beacuse ppl are gearing alts and doing argus+dungeons HM will gives you about 3500gold/character
all the prizes you compare to are hella useless.
ANY games market is fully broken at release as every trashy item is worth loads of money.
THAT IS NOT NORMAL
the current prizes are normal.
This might be correct, but what he said is still correct. More and more people are reaching 1340 and 1370, meaning more and more natural gold is generated in a non-linear way.
The market slowly settled down but can change again with the "new" gold influx.
----
Early stage when the crystal price skyrocked:
Everyone was getting more gold than they burned. One time rewards and other natural gains. There was no real gold sink. Keep in mind, AH is not a gold sink. If you spend the gold, someone gets the gold. Okay 5% burn from the fees. Same with crystals.
Just think about it. If I sold my mats on the AH and convert the gold for 1k, I got the same amount of mats back + more gold + more blue crystals. win-win-win for me.
Later, when the price dropped back to 300g:
"Causals" and "normies" pushed their character in end T2 early T3. At that point and with the push you burn more raw gold (honing) than you get per week and the one time rewards were mostly exhausted. That affect the AH and ofc it will also affect Mari/crystal price. Why should someone buy from mari if the AH is now cheaper. Why should I sell, if I can't use the mari trick. No one was buying crystals blind anymore. People started to not buy crystals for any price. Also the new skins came out, meaning plenty of people bought royal crystals and had some to sell. -> price drops
Current stage:
More and more people reaching high levels even with alts and increase their weekly income + prep for the patch next week. Slowly they get gold back to spend.
The price will not fall to 200g anymore. I think it will drop a bit after the new classes was released and we get new skins, but long term you only see an uptrend.
The best time to buy crystals later is probably ~1week after a new skin because people just have some leftover royal crystals they sell off.
It's your problem if you think 40k was normal. (unless you are a AH flipper). Maybe you should sit down and think for a moment how the economy in this game works.
Here a hint for your homework:
If you made 40k via AH trading, did you generate 40k or got it from someone else? Who did generate 40k out of thin air? What happens with gold when you hone. Is it removed? Yes? No?
The only thing you can blame AG here is not dealing properly with bots, but if you have a single second to think you also know bots will be present in this version of game no matter what.
There's also the devaluation of money (gold). It's impressive for me people don't understand that they are not doing 40k/day but they also doing equivalent or more gold daily because everything start to decrease in price with bots running around.