This game's RNG algorithm is criminally bad

[socrlax24]

I just failed six 75% ability stone improvement attempts in a row. That is literally a 0.02% chance of happening. Just a few days ago, I failed a 100% honing attempt. I have pitied on honing attempts that STARTED at 75% success.

This game needs to be investigated.

[kamiyal]

Lizzo a écrit :

100% uninstall success rate for me. take that for data.

kek

[TheDarkDivinity]

FB_Destroyer Rebecca a écrit :

Kirinketsu a écrit :

One thing Video games have taught me is how very little people understand how RNG, chance, and probability works.
If you have a 75% chance of doing something you always have a 25% chance of failing, it doesnt matter if you do it 100 times there will always be a 25% chance to fail each time.
Probability is the ratio of how likely an event is to happen, but at the end of the day the only thing that matters is the chance of the outcome...also to find the Probability outcome you need a massive sample size that will vary based on complicated calculations.

Alright, let's get this straight. Fancy words aside, when it comes to the wild world of statistics and randomness in gaming, it's not really about if folks get it or not. I've got a master's degree, and here's one thing I've learned: our take on "randomness" can be as different as night and day.

Think of it like this. Say you've got a 75% chance of something good happening in a game. Some people might be doing a happy dance because they're riding a lucky streak. But take someone else, who's missed the mark 20 times despite having a 99% chance. To them, those 99% might feel more like a kick in the teeth than anything else. They might even be more stoked when they hit the bullseye after only three tries at a measly 3% chance.

Here's the bottom line: when you're wading into the world of pay-to-win games, understanding statistics isn't the key to the kingdom. This ain't a stats class, it's a game! What matters is whether the progress feels fair to you. You can't boil down your experience to just a number, right?

So, what I'm really getting at here is that our feelings about randomness and luck are super personal. It doesn't really matter if we're hotshots at understanding statistics. At the end of the day, it's all about how the game feels to you.

It’s actually call probability, and it’s scripted into the game as coding. There is nothing personal about math, it’s all statistics over a sample size.

What master degree is this?

[Kirinketsu]

FB_Destroyer Rebecca a écrit :

So, what I'm really getting at here is that our feelings about randomness and luck are super personal. It doesn't really matter if we're hotshots at understanding statistics. At the end of the day, it's all about how the game feels to you.

Thats what happens tho. people seem to get upset because they do not understand how the statistics work to the point its a 50/50 has become a meme for RNG in games. Like with the 75% for some reason in their minds they should never be failing two 75% in a row because they think 75%+75%=150% or they do Probability and come up with, I just failed and theres only a 6% chance of failing that it must be rigged...but no, the chance to fail is 25% it doesnt matter how many times you do it the chance to fail is 25%. and at 55% its 45% etc etc...its the same for when people fail honing at 80%/90%, how is that even possible...because you have a 20%/10% chance to fail, by their logic they should always piety at 1% to 10% honing chance.

Every day on Discord, Streams, In game chat I see people talking about how they just failed X amount of times and its a X probability to do so, and how there is no way that can happen...then comes the conspiracist with their go to this location on this channel while making sure you /roll until you roll high numbers and wear this item and only do it during these days and these hours...as if this is 20+ years ago and RNG is based only on Date/Time/CPU cycles etc.

The main issue is people want everything right away, Lost Ark is a MMORPG, its meant to be a time sink like nearly every other MMORPG. I cannot just jump in to a game like FFXIV or WoW and expect to do endgame content or have the best items after playing for even a few week.....but Gate keeping is a thing in every game and in Lost Ark items from time gated content is used for gate keeping.
Theres a fix for gate keeping, its called starting your own groups, joining guilds, and making friends, but most of there players who cry about gate keeping also gate keep or want to be carried.

[Kirinketsu]

TheDarkDivinity a écrit :

It’s actually call probability, and it’s scripted into the game as coding. There is nothing personal about math, it’s all statistics over a sample size

Its not called probability its called an algorithm that produces the random number, and usually today it uses a way more advance Cryptography then just using date, time, cpu stats etc.

[Jordan_Peterson]

TheDarkDivinity a écrit :

FB_Destroyer Rebecca a écrit :

Alright, let's get this straight. Fancy words aside, when it comes to the wild world of statistics and randomness in gaming, it's not really about if folks get it or not. I've got a master's degree, and here's one thing I've learned: our take on "randomness" can be as different as night and day.

Think of it like this. Say you've got a 75% chance of something good happening in a game. Some people might be doing a happy dance because they're riding a lucky streak. But take someone else, who's missed the mark 20 times despite having a 99% chance. To them, those 99% might feel more like a kick in the teeth than anything else. They might even be more stoked when they hit the bullseye after only three tries at a measly 3% chance.

Here's the bottom line: when you're wading into the world of pay-to-win games, understanding statistics isn't the key to the kingdom. This ain't a stats class, it's a game! What matters is whether the progress feels fair to you. You can't boil down your experience to just a number, right?

So, what I'm really getting at here is that our feelings about randomness and luck are super personal. It doesn't really matter if we're hotshots at understanding statistics. At the end of the day, it's all about how the game feels to you.

It’s actually call probability, and it’s scripted into the game as coding. There is nothing personal about math, it’s all statistics over a sample size.

What master degree is this?

Right on, it is all about probability, coded straight into the game. But while the math behind it is objective, how we personally experience those odds can be quite subjective. That's the part that makes this all fascinating.

My master's degree is in engineering, where we don't just design systems with mathematical precision but also consider how the end-user perceives and reacts to them. Trust me, these two don't always line up! The point I'm trying to make is that while the statistics and probability are consistent, individual experiences and perceptions of them can vary wildly. Especially in gaming, it's not just about the numbers, it's also about the players' unique experiences.

Building on that, it's related to when it comes to creating artificial enemies. There you're faced with a real "Goldilocks" problem. If your baddies are sharpshooters with 100% aimbot accuracy, you'll have frustrated players throwing their controllers. Make them aim like they're playing blindfolded, and folks might doze off from the lack of challenge.

Finding that sweet spot is like being a game developer-chef, trying to perfectly spice a game-dish. Too much and it's unpalatable, too little and it's bland. The real kicker? Everyone's got their own spice tolerance, or in this case, their own gaming skill and expectations.

[Nihi]

Kirinketsu a écrit :

One thing Video games have taught me is how very little people understand how RNG, chance, and probability works.
If you have a 75% chance of doing something you always have a 25% chance of failing, it doesnt matter if you do it 100 times there will always be a 25% chance to fail each time.
Probability is the ratio of how likely an event is to happen, but at the end of the day the only thing that matters is the chance of the outcome...also to find the Probability outcome you need a massive sample size that will vary based on complicated calculations.

Lost Ark is the only game I know where 100% doesn't mean 100%. It's just ♥♥♥♥.

[>>B52<<]

are you still palying with this game guys..I mean wow,take my hat off

[TheDarkDivinity]

Kirinketsu a écrit :

TheDarkDivinity a écrit :

It’s actually call probability, and it’s scripted into the game as coding. There is nothing personal about math, it’s all statistics over a sample size

Its not called probability its called an algorithm that produces the random number, and usually today it uses a way more advance Cryptography then just using date, time, cpu stats etc.

Algorithm is a pattern of relativity, probability is the mathematical term when predicting or producing chances. What are you talking about? It’s not making sense to me.

[Kirinketsu]

TheDarkDivinity a écrit :

Algorithm is a pattern of relativity, probability is the mathematical term when predicting or producing chances. What are you talking about? It’s not making sense to me.

You said probability is scripted Into the games code. RNG is based on algorithms that are in forms of cryptography. Infact because these algorithms are fixed code, really you have no idea what the real probability is For example there might be 100s of different algorithms that play off of each other...because a computer cannot just come out with a random number on its own, and so for upgrading weapon quality to roll a 89 it might had taken 12 different algorithms to all interact with each other, compared if you rolled a 92 that might had only taken 5. There will usually be an algorithm for if you win or lose, then there are algorithms based on how much you win or lose etc etc. You can never truly find the probability of an algorithm unless it's using something basic like date and time.

[TheDarkDivinity]

Kirinketsu a écrit :

TheDarkDivinity a écrit :

Algorithm is a pattern of relativity, probability is the mathematical term when predicting or producing chances. What are you talking about? It’s not making sense to me.

You said probability is scripted Into the games code. RNG is based on algorithms that are in forms of cryptography. Infact because these algorithms are fixed code, really you have no idea what the real probability is For example there might be 100s of different algorithms that play off of each other...because a computer cannot just come out with a random number on its own, and so for upgrading weapon quality to roll a 89 it might had taken 12 different algorithms to all interact with each other, compared if you rolled a 92 that might had only taken 5. There will usually be an algorithm for if you win or lose, then there are algorithms based on how much you win or lose etc etc. You can never truly find the probability of an algorithm unless it's using something basic like date and time.

Just so we are on the same page, you’re trying to say that probability is the product of using an algorithm to process the outcome. Right?

[McGeorgeOfTheJungle]

Sk4r3Kr0w a écrit :

The probability of failing a single attempt with a 75% success rate is 25% or 0.25. Since they failed six attempts in a row, we can multiply the probabilities together to find the probability of this occurring:

0.25 * 0.25 * 0.25 * 0.25 * 0.25 * 0.25 ≈ 0.00024414 or 0.024414% (approximately)

That ♥♥♥♥ is crazy.

Yeah it isn't impossible, but each attempt was a 25% chance of failing let's remember that. A 1 in 4 chance of failing each time.

The % chance of that happening of course for him is a very low chance, but it adds up for each failure.

Again people need to understand 75% chance is NOT a guarantee, it is a good chance.

[Răzvan]

Kirinketsu a écrit :

You said probability is scripted Into the games code. RNG is based on algorithms that are in forms of cryptography. Infact because these algorithms are fixed code, really you have no idea what the real probability is

... yes, you do know what the real probability is, by running 1'000'000 tests and if the distribution is uniform, then the probability is 1 divided by the number of scenarios. A lot of people here use buzzwords and talk about subjects they don't understand.



PS: 0.02% in this scenario is not uncommon. Think this way: there's a contest with 10'000 participants in which we randomly select 9'998 people to win 1000€ each and 2 people to die. Someone WILL pick the short stick. Well, our case, OP did.

[Jordan_Peterson]

Sk4r3Kr0w a écrit :

The probability of failing a single attempt with a 75% success rate is 25% or 0.25. Since they failed six attempts in a row, we can multiply the probabilities together to find the probability of this occurring:

0.25 * 0.25 * 0.25 * 0.25 * 0.25 * 0.25 ≈ 0.00024414 or 0.024414% (approximately)

That ♥♥♥♥ is crazy.

Alright, thats not crazy, that's just how it works!
*Education time on*
RNG, that's Random Number Generator, is kinda like the Wild West of the math world. It can make things feel like a rollercoaster. One moment you're at the bottom, and the next, you're soaring high.

Picture this: some lucky ducks manage to succeed ten times in a row with a measly 4% chance. Unlikely? Sure. Impossible? Not on your life. I've got pals who pulled off not one, not two, but three successful high-tier gear upgrades on their first try in Black Desert Online. Talk about winning the lottery, right?
*Education time off*

*Storytime on*
Now, flip the coin. Here's your ol' pal, that's me, played a few months, dropped about 60 billion silver, and got myself a pretty sweet gear set (309AP, 384DP). Then there's my guild mate, a three-year veteran, who spent a whopping 300 billion silver for the same gear level.

End of the day, we're standing side by side, decked out in the same gear, but one of us had a three-year journey while the other hit the fast track. Was it fair? That's up to you. All I can tell you is, one of us whipped out the credit card, and the other didn't. One did win in the lottery more often, and the other didn't.
*Storytime off*
Ain't life a hoot?

[Sk4r3Kr0w]

FB_Destroyer Rebecca a écrit :

Sk4r3Kr0w a écrit :

The probability of failing a single attempt with a 75% success rate is 25% or 0.25. Since they failed six attempts in a row, we can multiply the probabilities together to find the probability of this occurring:

0.25 * 0.25 * 0.25 * 0.25 * 0.25 * 0.25 ≈ 0.00024414 or 0.024414% (approximately)

That ♥♥♥♥ is crazy.

Alright, thats not crazy, that's just how it works!
*Education time on*
RNG, that's Random Number Generator, is kinda like the Wild West of the math world. It can make things feel like a rollercoaster. One moment you're at the bottom, and the next, you're soaring high.

Picture this: some lucky ducks manage to succeed ten times in a row with a measly 4% chance. Unlikely? Sure. Impossible? Not on your life. I've got pals who pulled off not one, not two, but three successful high-tier gear upgrades on their first try in Black Desert Online. Talk about winning the lottery, right?
*Education time off*

*Storytime on*
Now, flip the coin. Here's your ol' pal, that's me, played a few months, dropped about 60 billion silver, and got myself a pretty sweet gear set (309AP, 384DP). Then there's my guild mate, a three-year veteran, who spent a whopping 300 billion silver for the same gear level.

End of the day, we're standing side by side, decked out in the same gear, but one of us had a three-year journey while the other hit the fast track. Was it fair? That's up to you. All I can tell you is, one of us whipped out the credit card, and the other didn't. One did win in the lottery more often, and the other didn't.
*Storytime off*
Ain't life a hoot?

Yeah, We just disagree then. I've been playing MMO's since the late 90's so none of this is new to me. I'm just gawking at the extremely low likelihood of this happening to someone. Of course it isn't impossible. It's just so astronomically unlikely that you'd be in the 0.02% that when that person is you it feels impossible.

[Jordan_Peterson]

Sk4r3Kr0w a écrit :

FB_Destroyer Rebecca a écrit :

Alright, thats not crazy, that's just how it works!
*Education time on*
RNG, that's Random Number Generator, is kinda like the Wild West of the math world. It can make things feel like a rollercoaster. One moment you're at the bottom, and the next, you're soaring high.

Picture this: some lucky ducks manage to succeed ten times in a row with a measly 4% chance. Unlikely? Sure. Impossible? Not on your life. I've got pals who pulled off not one, not two, but three successful high-tier gear upgrades on their first try in Black Desert Online. Talk about winning the lottery, right?
*Education time off*

*Storytime on*
Now, flip the coin. Here's your ol' pal, that's me, played a few months, dropped about 60 billion silver, and got myself a pretty sweet gear set (309AP, 384DP). Then there's my guild mate, a three-year veteran, who spent a whopping 300 billion silver for the same gear level.

End of the day, we're standing side by side, decked out in the same gear, but one of us had a three-year journey while the other hit the fast track. Was it fair? That's up to you. All I can tell you is, one of us whipped out the credit card, and the other didn't. One did win in the lottery more often, and the other didn't.
*Storytime off*
Ain't life a hoot?

Yeah, We just disagree then. I've been playing MMO's since the late 90's so none of this is new to me. I'm just gawking at the extremely low likelihood of this happening to someone. Of course it isn't impossible. It's just so astronomically unlikely that you'd be in the 0.02% that when that person is you it feels impossible.

Hey, no need for disagreeing when we're talking about understanding statistics.
I mean, if you've ever been to the dance with RNG and math, you'd know what I'm talking about.

Picture this: Thousands of gamers trying to level up their gear at the same time.
It's like a massive concert and each player's got their own RNG ticket.
Now, among that sea of hopeful faces, it's a good bet that one lucky soul will strike gold and one will strike the electric cable.

If you've got your head wrapped around stats, this shouldn't throw you for a loop.
In fact, you'd expect even crazier stories to come out of that crowd of hundreds.
Because, let's face it, when RNG starts playing the fiddle, you never know who's going to end up dancing or pulling the shorttest stick out there!