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I'm actually surprised ships are losing to aeria when directly targeting them. Strike craft have a huge advantage in range, but also their ability to quickly retarget and focus fire, just like missile ships. This utility should have been balanced with lower stats.
I did a similar simulation attempt with phase missiles a while back, so I appreciate the amount of time and effort that goes into this sort of analysis.
One thing to consider is that fleets and damage sources can be mixed. So expecting phase damage to be above 50% is unrealistic for the stage of the game where that tech is unlocked. I would have liked to see how PD affected Aeria DPS over time, to get an idea of how PD works to mitigate, rather than just versus.
If you want to test some of these numbers in game I'd be willing to help. Theory is great when you put in the effort to get actual numbers, but no way to be sure your results without testing.
The numbers for damage mitigation are very stark : if you don't pierce, the damage falls extremely quickly. Missing 100 pierce against durability is already halving your damage. A starbase with its 1000 durability will divide damage from low pierce weapon by almost 10.
Another factor is that the bomber movement, even with beams, may not allow them to shoot well against some enemies. I'm not sure they would be able to shoot at corvettes for example.
Originally I thought it was overtuned, but after seeing the numbers against the vasari, I'm not sure. Many vasari dps ships are very close from those aeria drone ship, and because they don't have drones, they are not as easy to negate their damage. I am convinced the exoria illuminator is a lot better in practice later in the game, because it has long range still, beams cannot be mitigated, and they have more pierce : exoria illuminator : 2.66dps/supply, 400 pierce, 237hp/supply, 150 durability. Against heavy cruisers it's better than drones. Against capital ships as well.
Technologies might have a big impact too depending on the situation. Here I only include the garda MkII, but all TEC ships can get a shield on top. I showed how phase missiles research can tilt a matchup in favour of the vasari. I suspect advent drones will not improve much, or at least not as much as most other ships when it comes to research. Economy also has a role I suspect : vasari have their fabricator cruisers, TEC have production on starbases and a powerful economy, advent have conversion or resurrection, but those are harder to use to win a battle.
Well you can try that, but strike craft have a lot of utility advantage so I think in practise there is a reason everyone spams them. Actually after doing the math myself I came to a different result vs caps, Aeria bombers did 1.7 vs 1.5 with 500 durability.
I agree that it's important to consider how different factors will work in a battle, or the wider context. I still believe phase missiles will only rarely ever be useful due to damage mixing.
Going back to Aeria vs Illuminator again. The Advent suffer from credit shortage, which is why the Tempest is so good costing only metal and crystal. Aeria is the same, using only metal and crystal, while Illuminator is mostly credits. This makes Aeria incredibly affordable in context of Advent economy.
I haven't seen any issues with targeting, in fact I think the additional factors play into bomber strength more than corvettes in that matchup. I know you said you didn't take this stuff into consideration, but definitive sweeping conclusions can't be made while still ignoring them.
One of the larger, and easier to calculate would be Aeria bomber alpha strike. It is powerful, better than other bombers due to beams. There is no travel time for missiles, so when a target dies, the other bombers retarget more quickly and waste less dps. That's the advantage of having lots of fast little instant attacks, however the alpha strike on bombers is particularity good if you see how long it takes between shots. All that damage is done upfront, so they are always able to do (reload time)seconds of dps in the first second. That alone is going to make all your ttl shift by like 5s in favour of Aeria. This could wildly change certain matchups in large numbers if right at the start Defensors lose 1/6 of their number in the first second.
There is a lot of other factors that tilt things in favour or against Aeria because strike craft. It really limits what you can do with simple calculations without seeing results.
Your equation is wrong. Against a capital ship, aeria fighters will do 0.87dps/supply, which is terrible. Bombers will do 1.53dps/supply.
The damage formula is reduced damage = base damage x 100 / (100 + durability - pierce)
This comment is wild. You are not questioning how it works, you are telling a story and inventing numbers. The defensors will attack the bombers too. The most important factor will be range. I've noticed that vasari bombers will attack from quite far, almost out of PD range for example, which means they don't take much damage from PD (if they come from the right direction), but their missiles will be destroyedd by PD. Advent bombers have to come closer, and they don't have missiles, so the full dps of PD and light turrets will hit them. We also don't know if the dps given account for the bomber movement, or if the movement makes the true dps lower. We can suppose it accounts for it, but it'll be hard to measure. Also of note : the speed difference between defensors and advent bombers is not that big.
The alpha strike can be good on most ships. Kalev frigates will quickly have a critical mass that can eat through a capital ship. That's why exoria illuminator are so expensive for the advents : the piercing and the beams means they are much deadlier than bombers, and they don't die as easily as bombers.
A 99% damage reduction is 2x stronger than a 98% reduction.
Aeria
20 supply
300 piercing = 100/(100+(500-300))= .3333333333
5.7x18= 102.6dps
102.6dps/20 supply
=5.13 per supply x .333 durability mitigation
=1.71 true dps
Illuminator
8 supply
400 piercing = 100/(100+(500-400))= .5
12.8+(5.7x2)= 24.2dps
24.2dps /8 supply
=3.025per supply x .5 durability mitigation
=1.5125 true dps
I don't trust any of your math now if you get this wrong, get told it was wrong, then just double down.
Then I'll leave you to it then since you clearly have it all figured out.
To put it another way: Have a bunch of Shrikens and a bunch of Cobalts.
The Shriken deals 10 dps, pierce 50.
The Cobalt deals 7.3 DPS, pierce 150.
If they attack something with 0-50 durability, the Shriken obviously wins with 10dps to the Cobalts 7.3.
If they attack something with 150 durability, like a Krosov, the Cobalt wins - it's dealing its original 7.3 DPS, whereas the Shriken now deals 5 DPS.
You might assume this relation continues with the Cobalt doing better vs heavily armored units, or at least better by the same proportion, so lets test it against a Kol battleship with 500 durability. The Shriken deals 22% of its original DPS, so 2.2 dps. The cobalt deals 28% of its original DPS, or around 2.08dps. Suddenly, the Shriken is better again, despite doing worse against the 150 armor enemy. If you go against a starbase, the numbers are again in the Shirkens favor with 1000 durability, it deals 1.05dps to the Cobalts 0.85dps - a far more dramatic increase for the Shriken.
The extra 36% base damage the Shriken has becomes more important than the -100 piercing as durability values increase.
Also, regarding your numbers - Shriken don't have any PD tagged weapons. They cannot fight Strikecraft, only attack the drone carriers.. The Garda Mk2s Light Autocannon is also not a PD weapon. It can't target strikecraft either.
The damage reduction formular is 100/(100+True Durability), with True Durability being the value after pierce.
50 Pierce against a Capital Ship results in 0.18, meaning only 18% of the damage goes through, not 22%. So it becomes a DPS of 1.8, not 2.2.
150 Pierce against a Capital Ship results in 0.22, so 22% goes through, or 1.6 DPS.
The Shrike is a pretty decent damage dealer for its fleet cost. But the Cobalt has greater defenses(a lot of armour for its size) and excels in dealing with Frigates and Light Cruisers(200 Durability, you are still dealing 66% of your damage, or 4.9 base DPS, while the Shrike is down to 4 base DPS).
Just for fun. A PD gun(lets say 2 DPS) with 0 Pierce against a Capital Ship.
~17% of the damage goes through, or 0.33 damage. Meaning if you have 5 PD guns shooting at a capital ship, you are dealing about the same amount of damage as a single Cobalt.
It is a similar balance with missile weaponry. Powerful, long reach, but can be shot down.
Advent has the most powerful bombers(high number per squadron, no missiles), but they are also the most fragile, as they have no armour, and their Carrier Cruiser takes up the most fleet cap of all Carrier Cruisers.
1. The carriers are at the rim of the wells means any ship to attack the carriers will need go through their fleet first... means anything gunning for them will take massive damage.
The only way to fight mass awarms is pd and garda pd sucks overall. They are so squishy so just evaporate and and Advent fleet will focus your gardas as they know without them tec have bad pd...
Tec and vas need more pd... vas do have a spam worthy corvette which is miles better than the garda, much faster just better overall.
The only thing tec can do vrs mass spam is stack flak ship items on their capitals. They basically nuke corvs and strike craft. It's vital vrs carrier spam as gardas just suck. A swarm will nuke your capitals before gardas can do jack but flak spam will melt them all and make the carriers pointless which makes gardas be able to cope with the slow replenish drip