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- For an industry that has poor or no service (less than 60% of its cargo is transported): 33% chance of increase, 67% chance of decrease.
- For an industry that has good (greater than 60%) service: 67% chance of increase, 33% chance of decrease.
- There is no bonus for excellent service with default economy.
For industries that are not temperate terrain oil wells, there's a ~16.7% chance per month that a production change occurs.
As for your question, it's explained in
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oesqMKv11hI
though even with maxed ratings, in the tiniest map available I still had an industry with a constant 67% rating to shrink a couple times in a row until it eventually closed down.
oilwell in temperate map issue
Actually ended up looking them up
https://wiki.openttd.org/en/Manual/Base%20Set/Industries/Oil%20Wells
There is Grf that you can download that fixes the production for them.
Also, build company owner statue on every city that you are using its industry, it usually have the name of the city, like "city iron mine"