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I don't think I had any happiness issues aside from a couple recently conquered worlds (that didn't rebel). The auto-tax is set to maintain 5 happiness. I know the event is -20 happiness, which would take it to -15, which is where some shenanigans can happen sometimes iirc. But the auto-tax should adjust for that, right? Do you always rebel at -15 immediately? I didn't think so... if that's all this is I can change the auto tax policy.
I did have several high happiness areas revolt though, too, which is why I'm questioning what triggers things. Again though, I'm not upset, not complaining, not even suspecting a bug. I just wanted to know more. Thanks :)
It doesn't tell us anywhere that this is the case. Its just based on observation, not enough times to be sure, but consistent enough to guess that's how it is.
While it seems to be RNG tied to a leadership change, there seems to be more at play. Purely guessing, I think the empire needs to be of sufficient size that a distinct empire can rise. It appears to grab a chunk of systems, not just at random. So a 'side' or 'chunk' of the empire fractures. I would guess that a colony is selected as a capital, and it goes from there. If all it needs is a single unhappy colony, it is only a matter of time.
As far as I know, it can't be outright prevented. Because of that, I use it as a handicap for the empire I give it to. A very big handicap.
A minor concession: I've seen AI feudal empires excelling before the civil war. And when playing as them, their hyper-aggressive capability, if utilized, can be very appealing, and I've handled the civil wars easily enough.
It's easily the hardest government to 'win' with, most of all because of the civil war mechanic, I think. Even if it is technically preventable.
I just can't place what sets it off.
Are rebellions guaranteed? Does a higher happiness on a world that has opted to rebel give it less forces? Do less of the garrison units join the rebellion? How does it mitigate things?
Right now at a glance it feels so random and unpreventable. Even the worlds that choose to rebel seem random and can range from feeble to crippling depending on the state of your overall empire.
The reputation hit from reconquering worlds that go independent feels excessively out sized too, compared to reputation hits from everything else. And when worlds join other factions it can be particularly devastating to your game.