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No idea if this is working properly or not. Your description of the game behaviour is accurate.
Because I cannot find a pattern, there is no way to strategically manage it.
I stopped all stealing till it is resolved.
But how it's supposed to work. When you go to steal it gives you a range of danger say 15 to 85, based on your thief's skill, items you may own that reduces suspicion, and a random roll you end up with success if you don't surpass 100 suspicion in the attempt. 100 or more suspicion is automatic wanted and failure to steal item. Once theft is complete you have a new total suspicion based on the outcome of the theft. If it's over 70, you stand a chance a patrol will decide your wanted and you become wanted. The higher above 70 the more chance you end up wanted and suspicion becomes 100. It then declines at a rate based on your skills, items etc until you reach around (Iv'e found) 50 or so suspicion then you begin to have a chance for patrols to stop looking for you.
A few notes if you have 50 suspicion and you try to steal an item that has a range of 50 to 100, you are going to automatically fail. 50 + 50 = 100 suspicion just for trying. If its 25 to 50 you may get away with it but you will be close to 100 if you succeed and will likely become wanted right away. Stealing more than one item from same place each theft increases suspicion on its own! Stealing quickly after having stolen is also bad, the idea is steal when it's something it's worth the immediate risk of the theft but also keep in mind you are going to also need to invest time to reduce suspicion before doing another theft is reasonable.
Turning in captured outlaws reduces suspicion by 20 each and jailer don't care your wanted, so its safe there. In town they don't care your wanted, it's safe there also. If you join a battle with patrol against anyone and side with patrol they don't care your wanted. But get away from them after battle, their fickle about it. If you carry at least 6 days food and enough pay for 2 paydays, you can hang out in mountains fairly safely from patrols until your no longer wanted.
So aside from the suspicion jump bugs it's supposed to be a very manageable play-style, but now it's not so much because the bugs take away so much from the manageability and make you randomly wanted quicker, have your suspicion jump, have you go from unwanted right back to wanted again and etc. That said it's still viable and with planning and restraint you can steal that rare or valuable item and dodge the guards long enough that its worth it.
Neither the distance to the team, nor the grade of suspicion follows logical aspects.