19423 peak player count after free weekend

[johnwick]

Update:

All time lowest player count ( not a peak but a new record low )

https://steamdb.info/app/1517290/graphs/

8033 concurrent players @ 04/01/2022 0910

Record low peak player counts across all peaks on the 03/01/2022

14705 03/0102022 @ 0230

13745 03/0102022 @ 1420

14714 03/0102022 @ 2020

43,164 peak playerrs across all peaks. Average of 10K less than over the holiday period

Original post:

Lets take a look at some day one numbers after the free weekend.

https://steamdb.info/app/1517290/graphs/

Player count from peaks during the four days averaged

(37564 + 47883 + 45009 + 30983) = 161,439

161,439 / 4 = 40,360 average peak player count over the free weekend.

19423 - Peak player count on 21/12/2021 14:00 UTC

20,936 loss of players after free weekend.

That is a 51.87% peak player count loss from free weekend player count.

We can extrapolate they may not have purchased the game to continue playing.

18561 pre free weekend peak - 19423 post weekend peak = 862 gained

That is 4.644% peak player count increase of owners of the game playing.

If we allow for a chance 5% (of 18564) of owners just skipped this day that is 55% chance 920 of those may or may not play tomorrow

Conclusion = The free weekend was, statistically, a failure. That was to be expected from previous trends which seem to be returning to the predicted curve of less than 10k peak players before 60 days from release.

some more stats. There appears to be 3 peaks a day so just to take wild guess and add these up to get a potential and hihgly estimated steam player count across peak times

We can see that there are about 50-55k players per day across the peaks before the free weekend and after,

18112 0230 UTC 13/12/2021
19464 1420 UTC 13/12/2021
17864 2010 UTC 13/12/2021

55,440 13/12/2021 peak total

16868 0300 UTC 14/12/2021
19090 1400 UTC 14/12/2021
17157 2020 UTC 14/12/2021

53,115 14/12/2021 peak total

16348 0240 UTC 15/12/2021
17583 1400 UTC 15/12/2021
15931 2030 UTC 15/12/2021

49,862 15/12/2021 peak total

15507 0250 UTC 16/12/2021
18561 1400 UTC 16/12/2021
18907 2050 UTC 16/12/2021

52,975 16/12/2021 peak total

16856 0320 UTC 21/12/2021
19516 1350 UTC 21/12/2021
17452 2030 UTC 21/12/2021

53,824 21/12/2021 peak total

15835 0300 UTC 22/12/2021
18674 1400 UTC 22/12/2021
16500 2030 UTC 22/12/2021 ???

51,009 22/12/2021 peak total ???

The free weekend did not add new owners to the player base.

https://imgur.com/a/57LtW4n

52.5k (estimated 20% of the cross platform player base) x 5 = 262.5k players a day across all platforms at 3 individual times with 15-20k players playing concurrently per peak. Meaning i will not see more than 100K cross platform players at any one time when playing at a peak for my timezone. So relatively speaking to a player who plays once a day, the player base is estimated, very loosely, at 87.5K per peak

[oneal909]

They said BF V was dead and it's still alive and well. With some exceptions, most of the games with high player counts on the steam charts are either heavily discounted or free-to-play. Another fact is when the player count for BF 2042 dip, you can see a similar dip in the other games.

And if you pay attention to this chart, you can clearly see an uptick in the player count from the 23rd on. Is it mind blowing? No, but it's there.

https://steamplayercount.com/app/1517290


As the bugs are fixed and more content is added the player count would stabilize. It's not to rival some of the other games, but it's not going to die.

[Malecite]

Publicado originalmente por oneal909:

They said BF V was dead and it's still alive and well. With some exceptions, most of the games with high player counts on the steam charts are either heavily discounted or free-to-play. Another fact is when the player count for BF 2042 dip, you can see a similar dip in the other games.

And if you pay attention to this chart, you can clearly see an uptick in the player count from the 23rd on. Is it mind blowing? No, but it's there.

https://steamplayercount.com/app/1517290


As the bugs are fixed and more content is added the player count would stabilize. It's not to rival some of the other games, but it's not going to die.

A game never really dies, there are always people playing them unless the servers get shut down.

BF2042 has less content than any previous BF launch. It's got 7 maps, 22 guns, no class unlocks, no badges, no squad play or chat, and the list goes on.

Portal was a great idea and they decided to destroy it so, much like the rest of the game, it's going towards life support in another month.

Think about what they actually need to fix in this title to bring people back, it's actually mind boggling. Almost an entire redesign, that's going to hurt new content delivery whose timeline is now in shambles.

[xiii]

But u need to count unique players, every minute someone disconnect and connects to game. That means with 20k peak players, you can have 150k-250k unique players playing the game at multiple times. So the player base is much bigger

[xiii]

For example Dota 2 have peak around 300k to 600k players. But every month the game visits 10 million unique players

[Malecite]

It's pretty obvious the free play weekend was a desperate attempt to break the horrifying review statement which is almost at 100,000 now.

The amusing part is that after the initial player spike it looks like no one really bought the game. Despite the games increased exposure the negative reviews actually went up and player count is headed back down again. Multiple times I've seen the game have fewer players than BFV which is just plain embarrassing.

The fact that the timeline for new content is now in flux and they are going to have to dedicated all their resources to somehow fixing the game will only make matters worse.

The community will reject efforts to somehow monetize this dumpster fire like overwhelmingly rejected the Santa skin and I see EA pulling support after a year of spiralling cash flow.

The game is dead but doesn't know it yet.

[johnwick]

Publicado originalmente por xiii:

For example Dota 2 have peak around 300k to 600k players. But every month the game visits 10 million unique players

You don't need total daily unique players to establish player counts at peak times but let me show you something.

450k dota peak x 28 days = 12.6 million

There is your monthly unique player count?

I think that pretty much covers that?

[SSIXS]

Publicado originalmente por razeedazee:

You don't need unique players to establish players counts at peak times but let me show you something.

I have 2 questions:

1. What's the total number of game owners that made up the entire Steam 2042 player base before the free weekend/sale?

2. What's the total number of game owners that makes up the entire Steam 2042 player base after the free weekend/sale?

[johnwick]

Here is the api i am using and the data it provides.

https://steamdb.info/app/1517290/graphs/

[SSIXS]

Publicado originalmente por razeedazee:

Here is the api i am using and the data it provides.

https://steamdb.info/app/1517290/graphs/

What are the totals for the entire Steam 2042 player base both before and after the free weekend/sale?

You'retelling everyone that you're doing all the calculations, so those 2 important numbers should be easy for you to come up with.

[johnwick]

Check the api I linked to see if that data Is provided.

[SSIXS]

Publicado originalmente por razeedazee:

Check the api I linked to see if that data Is provided.

Owner and purchase totals for the game aren't provided.

So you can't claim as fact:

Publicado originalmente por razeedazee:

The free weekend did not add new owners to the player base.

Because you don't even know how many people (if any) bought the game after the free weekend/sale.

[johnwick]

So with a little basic research you managed you answer your own question, you've come a long way.

Maybe now you'll stop asking irrelevant questions that nobody can answer whilst pretending it's clever to ask the question. It's just bait to try and get people to justify things no one can prove or disprove. It's a waste of time and it won't happen.

Again, you are more than welcome to show any data or figures to backup your platform.

[SSIXS]

Publicado originalmente por razeedazee:

So with a little basic research you managed you answer your own question, you've come a long way.

Maybe now you'll stop asking irrelevant questions that nobody can answer whilst pretending it's clever to ask the question. It's just bait to try and people justify things no one can prove or disprove. It's a waste of time and it won't happen.

Again, you are more than welcome to show any data or figures to backup your platform.

Assuming you agree with me (that you don't know how many people owned the game before and after the free weekend/sale), then you know the premise of your thread is not based in fact.

If you don't even know how many (if any) purchased the game during/after the free weekend/sale, then you can't conclusively state that it added no new players to the base. None of your calculations answers that question, and if you have no answer, you can't make a truthful claim one way or the other.

I'm done, just making a point, as this thread keeps popping back up... and imo it's complete BS because it doesn't demonstrate what you claim it does.

[johnwick]

The data represented clearly shows the player base returned to pre free weekend levels and has not risen since. The data clearly shows the free weekend has no impact on the player base. This can mean a few things that cannot be proved or disproved with one of them being that no significant number of new owners were added to the player based. A conclusion drawn never claimed as a fact. What was claimed to be a fact was the free weekend was a failure in fulling its purpose of increasing the peak player count.

You can attempt to distort the conclusions drawn from the evidently correct and consistent data. You can attempt to lure the conversation away from the api data points to conclude that since some unknown, unverified and irrelevant data point does not exist it some how changes something about the available data. It doesn't and trying to twist my words or the context of the data whilst never providing any thing verifiable or substance in turn just undermines your own platform.

I am just feeling sorry you at this point that you seem to really need this win but the fact remains. It changed nothing. You should probably just move on.

[Geargut]

and?