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Growth is almost entirely based on your class with a tiny amount of RNG, and affinity is "growth" in a sense but can be changed retroactively, and has no RNG anymore
Tier doesn't matter for growth
Conscripts are the cheapest, have the lowest level, are always tier 1, are at neutral loyalty (unless you have the max loyal conscript tech) and usually don't start with a trait (but sometimes do!).
Mercs start with the lowest loyalty (+2 cap cost) but which can improve over time. As far as I can tell, there are four tiers- green, blue, purple, and orange. Green mercs are the lowest level mercs but at a higher level than conscripts , can be tier 1 or 2 classes, may have a single trait (or none at all) and as far as I can tell are never unique characters. Blue is higher levelled, is tier 2-3, highly likely to have a trait, and there are several decent unique blue mercs available. Purple is higher leveled again, is always tier 3, always has a trait, and there are several excellent unique purple mercs. I have only encountered a single orange, who is a unique Merc who is a tier 4 silver dragonrider starting at a higher level than purple mercs.
Regarding traits, all the non-unique mercs I have seen only come with one, but I believe the random trait they get is more likely to be a higher tier with rarer mercs. Unique mercs meanwhile always have fixed traits across playthroughs, but they can have more than one.
In terms of stat growth as far as I can tell conscripts aren't really worse than mercs in that regard. Since stat growth is a bit random it's hard to compare without dev input. It's also not clear whether homegrown and leveled units have better stats than ones recruited at a higher level. Also on multiple playthroughs you might notice that unique mercs can have noticeably different stats from run to run- i suspect they are also levelled up in the background and the difference (aside from level) is the random differences in stats when you level.
The balance to mercs is that not only do they cost several times more than conscripts, they also start with low loyalty, which means they need an extra +2 capacity just to be put in a squad. It might not sound like much, but it can be a hassle at some points to have to squeeze out those extra points just for 1 unit.
So then as far as we know the examples of stats and class changes that i wrote are doable right?
That said, do we know what are the class types and the stats they up more? does cavalry affect this for example?
As for the stat mods i guess that means just more "base stats" right? And that ups with rarity?
For the discussion about conscripts vs mercenaries i also think that conscripts should be more of a "you start slow but it pays off" or if you want to quickly mass some units, and mercenaries be more of a "i put 2 elite units" but if the stat difference is too much and hand leveling conscripts doesn't gives more stats as a return i guess with gold being the only limitant and mercenaries opening up resources, the loyalty penalty is not enough to justify conscripts in general, which is a shame for the middle tech tree. That said, i do not have enough experience in the game yet for this to be a valuable opinion xD.
I've been mostly using conscripts myself, a few hires of expectionals here and there, but I don't think the difference is significant. Mercs are expensive and if you want to buy the best items at the marketplace and on a few maps with the shop tents, then you probably can't afford that many high tier mercs.
Also, later on you unlock a tech that starts your raw recruits as a few levels higher and fully loyal which lowers their squad cost by 2. If you have a squad full of fully loyal soldiers you can field bigger squads without have to slowly level the loyalty of mercs.
I also think that conscripts aren't able to lead squads right away, but I have to test this more. It's mostly an issue for the early game, anyway.
It really doesn't take that much in game to level and CP a toon. It also is tougher to hire mercs early on since you are more in a budget crunch. Eventually I have more money than i really need. I mean you literally dont have to invest in any artifacts and anything else money wise other than to hire folks to beat this game.