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It's not exactly much to speculate on but I do hope it's a return to the more tropical/seaside themes of Tri. I believe they can make underwater combat work and look a ton better, but I still don't believe it will ever make a return.
They probably want to continue with side-tools that increase player mobility (like the Claw or Wirebugs), so having a water-related bug/device could work, but at the same time I doubt they would take such a big risk (underwater combat) for the main AAA game. Clutch Claw was already a tool with limited usage, and people were already quite unsatisfied with many things, can't imagine a tool that's basically mandatory to play would be like if badly implemented.
Yeah, Lagiacrus is 100% in the next MH for sure. They already tried in World and Rise without success, so its a given we get our Lagi back next time.
Honestly at this point I'm not even sure they really tried for Rise. When stuff such as Royal Ludroth is woring just fine, there's no reason to lack Lagiacrus apart from "well we need to not put him in Rise because otherwise we don't have much to hype players for our new MH that probably takes place in a tropical setting and might even bring back underwater combat".
https://www.ign.com/articles/monster-hunter-rise-sunbreak-lagiacrus-not-in-game-why-explained
I really miss underwater Lance tbh...
Should discuss this on some real mh game forums instead, why are you here?