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(i think i just broke a world record) (when it was not december just in an event)
I have a similar issue with Rare Maw.
I have been breeding for a Rare Maw on literally every island on which it's available for six months every time it's been available. I've never successfully bred one - even with ten torches lit. I have tried literally hundreds of times. Zero successes. Breeding Mammott/Toejammer OR breeding Maw/Rare Maw together. Nothing.
Every RMaw I have comes from buying it in the Starshop or spending the gems to buy the monster.
Yet my kid, who plays on iOS, gets rare everything the first or second time they try on the iPad.
I truly think breeding chances are lower on the PC version than on the mobile.
Example: on my Plant island, I have an upgraded breeding station, multiple torches lit, level 20 mammott, level 15 Toe jammer, and all I ever get is standard Maw, Maw, Maw.
EDIT: i'm not really sure if levels or hapiness afect chances as the blog post was about a experiment for a specific monster! But i highly believe it is true!
Some people just get those monsters because of their luck. For example, i got 2 yools with enough patience and didn't even use torches (note that i have titan skin, i don't know if that still affects). I really wanted to get rare & epic counterparts which were barely avaible, and didn't get. I didn't get mad. I was only able to get yool because i was patient and it was avaible for more than 10 days! and rare & epic were just avaible for less than 2 days! So just don't get mad! If you have enough patience to wait for out of season, actual event or promotions happen, you always have the chance to get it again! I should also mention that those kinds of things that let your wished monster happen every 15-30 days! (or 2-3 months for a seasonal)
Although, i can still understand a lot the pain of getting a monster that is not 100%, i know it's super hard especially when you're out of luck (which i was doing through for a lot, really a lot even with torches for a lot of times). Just commenting this to make people understand that there are not other ways to increase the chances.
Thanks, we all know this.
And for the record, titan skin matters, and monster level matters for success rate (not necessarily for rare, but for breed in general).