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Breed Entbrat X T-Rox rather than Entbrat X Bowgart, as T-Rox has a shorter breeding time, meaning you can do more attempts in the same timeframe (or pay less for speed-ups, if that's what you choose do do; personally I wouldn't, as Ghazt is available to breed all the time.)
The base chance. The recent event raised that by 500%, so during that the base chance was 6%, then every torch you have lit adds about 1%, so with full torches that was 16%, and a higher parent level raises it a little bit more.
At > 16% it's not all that rare anymore to breed one in 3 tries ;)
That's just how RNG works though. If the chance is 1%, that still means on average 1 in 100 people will get one on the first try. Congratulations, you were that one.
Probabilities are really not that hard to understand.