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Use volcanic viper or alpha blade.
On a serious note every axl I have ever played really wants to bait you into that super, its also surprisingly only negative 2.
Hmmm, I'll try to play vs him without jumping, seems a good baiter as you said, could be a neat strategy, thanks,
Here's some example on how to deal with Axl provided that you can read Japanese, he's using Ky too for demonstration
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=92Mnw7OP38s
Edit : if you dig into the comment section, I think someone already made translation note, hope it helps
Forgot to add, you can also low profile (Ky's Stun Dipper, or Faust's Crouching)
The man is a god send for making these videos even if there unfortunately isnt an english captioning.
I am also fluent in Japanese but that is besides the point. You probably want some actual english notes you can follow so here it is.
All of Axl's normals are great. Some of the guilty culprits you are going to be looking out for on every occasion are Axl's following:
5P: We literally call this the anti-I-No button. He throws the chain across the way and the sickle is deceptively long on reach too. This is our answer to taller characters who want to run forward or people who make getting airborne their first priority. Easy culprits to fall prey to this are I-No, Potemkin, Sol, Ky, Faust, and Nago.
How you beat it: Dash under it with smaller characters or duck it. You can try poking back with an attack that reaches the gap, but a good Axl will normally keep you and him at mid range when he uses it.
2S: A great anti-air for people directly above Axl. We pop this if you are prone to jumping a lot.
How to beat it: You can bait this out by empty jumping to block, or jumping and back dashing. As a Ky player I would recommend you work on baiting it and throwing your air fireball.
2HS: This is really good and can connect off random things, but we usually use it if we know you are crouching a lot and might move. The dead zone of this move is in the middle of the chains, as is with most Axl normals.
How to beat it: It is best to block it low, but if you can jump over it and land in the dead zone do so at your risk and counter back with I think it is your 6S or 5S.
2P: It is our 5P but crouched. We will use this to annoy the hell out of you if we cannot catch you with the 5P. As an alternative it has a deadzone as well but it comes out really fast. Not as fast as 5P I think but close enough.
How to beat it: You need to block it low. If I were you I would probably wait for this to come out and then do your flip kick over it if you can get the spacing right.
6K: Our other great anti-air. It is a lot like 2P but it hits at an angle and can be combo'd from us standing.
How to beat it: You can bait this, and then just go in. I would use your sliding kick move to really do it if you know the distance or for safety reasons get in with your best ranged poke to confirm.
j.S: This is a nasty normal because at mid-range we can keep you out, frame trap you with 214HS or we can throw it over you to get the false sense of security and RC to use j.HS instead which will probably counter.
How to beat it: Aside from blocking it and also blocking the frame trap, you will need to dash in if you see the jump in, but stay at a good range close to where you were and or get under us and use your 2HS to punish the drop down we do.
j.HS: This beats out almost anything beneath us. It is not our best air-to-air but if we are talking jump ins it is too god like. If it lands we can get big damage off it and you do not want this. It looks like Axl throwing both the sickles downward into the ground at an angle from the air
How to beat it: You have to block it standing because I "think" it hits overhead. You also do not want to get caught with this in a crossup which it is harder for us to land but can be done if we know you are not responding accordingly. You can try to punish this with your 2HS, but you would have to predict this early and be right up on us to nail us with it.
214S (Rainwater): This move is our retreat and attack. It hits low and moves Axl backward as it comes out. A common blockstring I use this in is cS > 5S > 214S. We also use it to bait throws or as I mentioned get out of block strings.
How to beat it: You just have to block and I would as a Ky player respond with a fireball after it unless you can flip kick over it to chase me and connect before I land. I have never had people punish this move but I suspect it is designed with fleeing in mind.
214HS (Snail): This move is our safety net. If Rainwater gets us out, Snail keeps us in. We have two versions of this. The ground version is used to end combos and the air version is used in the frame trap to j.S. Keep in mind, this move is deceptively long in the air and reaches just as far as j.S does. It looks like a green sickle sweep going upward and back to Axl. The air version looks like the same green streak but hooks downward.
How to beat it: Dead zone. Dead zone. Dead zone. Move into this so that when we throw it we miss it. If you block this it is still our turn. You have to weigh your options here based on the version, but you should be able to respond with a 5S if up close on Ky, a 6P just incase you feel like we might try to c.S you, or you can try your luck with your c.S>S. against the ground version. For the air version you are going to have to learn to block it and back dash then come back, or you are going to have to make some risky gambles and run in so you are missed by the sickle and chain.
41236HS (Winter Mantis): The command grab. This starts as an animation of Axl throwing the sickles in the ground and they start at the back of the screen then move towards Axl. They catch anywhere on the screen even up close, but once they do you get pulled into the cinematic. If it is caught up close we can even cancel this into the Axl Bomber via TKB.
How to beat it: You can back dash over this but you have to time it. You can also just jump. Check us if we do it close as you can beat us with any button even your slowest. You have the advantage when we whiff it so go nuts.
[4]6S (Sickle Flash) This is our Ol'Reliable. Axl throws the chain across the screen and has a multitude of follow ups from this depending on the button pressed. It goes full screen and if it is Purple Roman Cancelled the projectile still comes out.
How to beat it: You have to pay attention to the situation this sets up. There is a dead zone in the chain. On block it is fine, and midway or midscreen up if you block it you can go for broke. You need to be sure the Axl player does not do one of three things and respond as follows:
Soaring Chain Follow Up: Axl yanks back on the sickle during Sickle Flash and it loops through the air. You beat it by just not jumping or if you do, you block while jumping back. At this point I would again be prepared to end up in close proximity with axl and try to beat him with your fastest button or 6P. Because you will be yanked to Axl if it hits or lands on block. The only difference is if you eat a follow up c.S or you get put in a 50/50.
Winter Cherry follow up: Axl detonates the sickle at the end of Sickle Flash's full reach. You can block this but we can delay it. We can delay for a forced lock down, and all you need to do at that point is get out before it goes off. Most Axl players are impatient despite the zoning, so they will pop it early and not wait and see. Really you only need to worry about this if you are turtling long enough for us to feel secure in using it.
Spinning Chain Strike Follow Up: This move is so beatable idek get why we have it. You can jump over this with a super jump and get a free meaty on us because our back is turned. Similarly this is a low, so you block it low. If they hold it it vacuums.
Some other tips and tricks: Becareful with your fireballs. We can challenge them with 5P or 2P as well as j.S. I have seen 5P collide with fireballs, go through them and still hit Ky. Your super fireball and charged one we cannot, but we will come towards you with Winter Mantis or a j.S to shut it down. If you feel you are getting no traction with these do not panic, and remember we (Axl) want you out just as bad as you want to get in, but we (Axl) also have to read you waaaaaaaaaay more than we can take silly chances.
Also I heard that you shouldn't press buttons after blocking the Soaring Chain follow up since Axl's gonna be so + afterwards, is this not true then?
I do not really recommend you jump Rainwater because as you said it is reactionary. You kind of have to fight enough Axl's to know it is an option and due to the risk I would not offer someone do it.
You can press buttons after a blocked Soaring Chain if your buttons are faster. I have had Ky's beat me out with 6P after it but that may just be on my own fault which is very likely. As an aside though most of the time the Soaring Sickle situation depends on your buttons as well, and if the Axl even realizes it is his turn (I see a lot of Axl's land it and have no clue what to do next) there is a reason on Dust Loop we call Soaring Sickle Chain "Unreliable".
You did this with Ky? I will run some in training as well and see if we can replicate for our friend here. But I will mark K down as not working for Ky. However, I will tell you off jump, I think Ky's K is slow as hell right? Like I know even people like KizzieKay were saying Ky has a bad K and was trying to find uses for it. I would do it across multiples but I will just do Ky to keep it on track for the topic.
For Ky his retaliation options are based on his positioning:
Close placement: Ky has very few options. His 6P seems to work here and there but it is not a reliable option so we can X that off.
At mid spacing: Ky can respond back with his 5S and get a counter hit. With his reach you should be able to combo from this.
His 5K and other attacks are too slow to respond to this. The situation for Soaring Sickle is also on the Axl's end because we may get you to only take one hit, both, or none. So it is not just a static situation of "X behaves like Y when Z is the state."
I tried with Anji who's fastest button is 7 frames, I would have moved onto characters with faster buttons if I got counter hit, but I didn't even get that far. Actually I think the kick hit me while I was still in air, so ground buttons don't even matter in this particular situation.
So Axl always has the advantage from Soaring Chain Strike.
Edit: Somehow only read one of those posts. Reading the other one now.