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At basic rates, you aren't even at a 50% chance of getting one, at banner rates(3.5% for 3+basic) you are in the 1.4% chance range.
rate-up is like 8-10% by adjusting 1-star drop-rates
you just have ♥♥♥♥ luck
example: people playing about 6-7PM are more likely to be spending to pull which will affect the odds over someone pulling at 1-2AM etc.
believe it or not it has worked for me a few times gotten several 4's including Sinanju, Fenex, Unicorn, Banshee these ways during their respectful banners.
but mostly.. the game is 100% based on luck for draws... every time ive done a free pull ive gotten ♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥ for my free 10's only beam swords and nothing more.
so stand by my theory.