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So you'll still find matches no problem even after CotW releases.
Yes there is an overlay with Capcom and SNK fandoms but at the end of the day they're still different.
Capcom fans will stick with SF6, SNK fans will go for COTW but who says either one can't play both? I plan to play both SF6 and COTW when it comes out (and also a bit of GGST on the side)
As for the player numbers, SF6 will definetely be the more popular one after COTW releases, Capcom and Street Fighter are much more well known and mainstream than SNK but that doesn't mean COTW won't have a good playerbase. It's just that it won't be as big as SF's.
As for myself: I doubt I will be switching or even getting CotW on launch - I am not even close to being done with SF6, and I don’t have time in my life nor brainpower for learning a 2nd fighting game. If I did I would rather go with a 3d one.
Still, I will keep an eye on the game, hoping it will be good!
Will be a day one buy now (yes, guest characters really do move units) ,but whether I stick with it or not depends on the netcode and if the game is actually any fun.
Will it replace SF6 for me?
Unless it's unbelievably good almost certainly not. The only games i can think of that would make me drop SF6 are SF7 and CvS 3 (assuming it didn't suck)