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that's the mix. you go for the hit that will hit them if they are crouching or if they stand to block the hit you throw.
However. Your bigger issue is using hooligan in neutral in the first place. At one point you will learn that a simple jab will beat every option of the hooligan.
Oh right I didn't even realize it could be just crouching and OP not knowing that crouch beats the grab. Maybe he though that it should still grab the Gief and Marisa because they are big.
Every Cammy player should know that crouch beats all the hooligan attacks except for Reverse edge (2K)
This is the issue.
And it shouldn't miss on a standing blocking character.
I mean they can crouch on reaction...
And like I said at one when you face people who know about other characters than their own. You'll meet people who know that they can stuff everything you are trying to do with hooligan from normal with just a jab.
Seriously go into a replay of the match where you miss a grab that you were certain should have connected. Activate input display and see what's going on with both yours and your opponent's inputs.
Ok thanks, I'll try to look at a replay.